Tennis Betting Advice - April 2018
A 100/1 shot for Houston...
Tuesday 10th April 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
The ‘erratic Frenchman’ strikes again…
Learning To Let Go is a big lesson in life, let alone in betting – where dwelling on mishaps is really not good for the mind or soul…
Having slept on last night’s Marrakech result I’m in more philosophical mood now. Yesterday I went – for the first time ever, probably – through a whole article featuring Benoit Paire without referring to him as an ‘erratic Frenchman’…
Well, our 14/1 Each Way pick Paire was it again last night. He played out a rollercoaster, three-set match v Gilles Simon – eventually coming out on the wrong side of a 6-2, 6-7, 7-6 score-line.
Paire had match point. And also blew a 5-1 lead in the final-set tiebreak, losing it 7-5. Infuriating stuff, as Paire is often his own worst enemy. In the end, the 33-year-old Simon’s experience and professionalism got him through.
That’s not the first time this season we’ve seen one of our picks have match point and fail to take it (Johanna Konta). And it’s not the first or even second time we’ve had a player lose out in a final-set tiebreak (Kevin Anderson).
The wheel is always turning though, and I’m sure at some point this season we’ll be celebrating a winning player that actually saved a match point.
Moving on, there are three other tournaments being played this week – all on clay…
We have Laura Siegemund (20/1 or 16/1 Each Way) running for us at WTA Lugano.
The WTA Bogota tournament looks genuinely wide open but unfortunately there are no prices that really catch the eye – that one looks best left alone.
This week’s other men’s event (besides Marrakech) is ATP Houston, which is the only ATP clay court tournament on the calendar to be held in the USA…
A 100/1 shot for Houston…
Americans are not traditionally known for their clay-court prowess. Hard court events dominate the ATP schedule in North America with just one grass event and this one in Houston on clay.
However, ‘home advantage’ and/ or the faster clay playing conditions here have seen four of the last seven Houston winners with the stars & stripes next to their name.
Three of those recent American winners play again this week and they’re all in the top half of the draw – John Isner (3/1), Jack Sock (6/1) and reigning champ Steve Johnson (20/1).
Johnson was a player that initially caught my eye but he looks to have a tough run in store to defend his title, including two promising American youngsters in Ernesto Escobedo and Frances Tiafoe, before a potential quarter final with top seed Isner. After that could come a semi final v Sock.
Looking to the bottom half of the draw for an American with credentials at a value price, I like Tennys Sandgren at 33/1…
Sandgren made a name for himself with a brilliant run through to the Australian Open quarter finals in January.
He’s got a winning career match record on clay (won 87 lost 54), and won his 1st Round match last night, 2-0.
Next up will be fellow American, Donald Young or the Argentinean clay-court ‘journeyman’ Nicolas Kicker. Sandgren has a 1-0 winning record v both players.
2nd seed Sam Querrey is a potential quarter final opponent and is as short as 4/1 for the title here. He’s made the final here before but his overall career clay record isn’t great (won 59 lost 55), and standing 6’5” his movement is hardly the best when it comes to skidding about on the ‘red dirt.’
Like Isner, Querrey was representing USA in the Davis Cup last weekend, which is always a factor worth keeping in mind when backing a player to perform again on tour just a couple of days after International duty.
One more American needs a mention here and that’s Denis Kudla who is available at as big as 100/1 this morning, despite pulling off a big 3/1 match win over the experienced Spaniard, Fernando Verdasco last night – in straight sets…
Like Sandgren, Kudla has a very respectable clay record from events mostly played on the lower tiers of the ATP tour (won 81 lost 53).
Kudla also stands out in the draw here as he has a decent record against some of the opponents in his path in Houston this week… he’s got a 2-0 record v Taro Daniel, and a 2-2 record v the big-serving Ivo Karlovic (including a 1-0 record on clay). Kudla also leads the career head-to-head v Sandgren, 3-0.
The 11/4 (3.75) tournament favourite Nick Kyrgios sits in Kudla’s quarter of the draw, but again we can make a case against the short price here. Kyrgios is hard to predict and often seems to have an injury niggle making him a potential withdrawal or injury retirement risk if you’re backing him. He’s won more than two consecutive clay court matches on the main-level ATP Tour on just one occasion in his career to date.
For small stakes, the two American outsiders at 33/1 and 100/1 are my Each Way picks in Houston...
ATP Houston – US Men’s Clay Court Championship
BET: Tennys Sandgren @ 33/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 33/1 (34.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports
STAKE: 0.5 pt – Each Way
Latest odds here
BET: Denis Kudla @ 100/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 100/1 (101.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 50/1 (51.00) NetBet, 10Bet, 40/1 (41.00) Bet365, 33/1 (34.00) Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill
STAKE: 0.5 pt – Each Way
Latest odds here
Today’s play in Houston starts from 6pm, UK time.
I’ll be back later in the week with more from this week’s tournaments. Enjoy the tennis...