Tennis Betting Advice - April 2018
Monte Carlo picks at 28/1 and 50/1…
Tuesday 17th April 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Monte Carlo picks…
Good morning. As promised we’re getting our first picks of the week down, before today’s play starts in Monte Carlo at 10am UK time…
World No.1 Rafael Nadal is the 8/13 (1.62) favourite. That’s one of the shortest Outright Winner prices you’ll see all year. Rafa hasn’t been seen on Tour since he retired injured from the Australian Open is January, but back on the clay here where he has a formidable record, the bookies are taking no chances whatsoever.
Nadal has won Monte Carlo a record 10 times, accounting for 10 of the last 13 tournament winners here.
With Nadal, the returning Novak Djokovic (11/1) and the youngster hailed to one day take over Rafa’s spot on the clay-court throne, Dominic Thiem (14/1) all in the top half of the draw, I’m going to concentrate on the bottom half where there are Each Way prospects available at big prices.
Last season a 200/1 rank outsider made the final in Monte Carlo – so it’s a tactic that’s got more to it than pure speculation…
Rafa’s dominance here means the bookies are going 1/3 odds Each Way for reaching the final, rather than the standard 1/2 odds. We want to be focusing on the big prices in order to get the best possible potential Each Way payout…
Two young men ready to step up…
Two young men stand out for me in the bottom half; both are showing great improvements in their game and in mental strength over the last 12 months or so. Both look hungry and ready to win.
Lucas Pouille @ 28/1
In the 3rd Quarter of the draw, I like last year’s Monte Carlo semi-finalist, Lucas Pouille at 28/1.
The 24-year-old Frenchman appears on our current Ones to Watch in 2018 list. He’s slightly older than most players we look out for in that annual report – but makes the cut after big strides made last season, including what could be a career-defining Davis Cup-clinching match win for France at the end of the season.
Pouille has started 2018 looking like he means business, too – reaching three ATP finals so far and winning one.
On clay, Lucas won ATP Budapest last year, and also made the final in Budapest in 2016 as well as reaching the Rome Masters semi finals that year (lost to Andy Murray).
He’s starting to get the big-match edge and a big tournament likes this one, containing plenty of Top 10 names, means we get the chance to back Pouille at the best prices we’ve seen for him for a while. In the three smaller tournaments where he’s made the final so far this season, Pouille’s price has been around 5/1 and 6/1 each time. Odds of 28/1 here make him a genuine ‘Ones to Watch’ contender.
Pouille is currently up to No.11 in the world, so he really is knocking on the door of the game’s elite.
Another player is climbing up the rankings and worth following right now, too…
Kyle Edmund @ 50/1
In the 4th Quarter of the Monte Carlo draw, Kyle Edmund is just this week up to a career-high of No.23 in the world, having reached his first ATP final last week – finishing runner-up on clay in Marrakech.
Kyle was 7/1 for last week’s tournament, and 12/1 when we backed him for the clay-court event in Buenos Aires back in February (withdrew through illness). As I said in February, Edmund played a lot on clay in his formative years and has spoken in the past of how much he likes the surface. This week in this Masters 1000-level event we get the chance to back the 23-year-old at 50/1 or 40/1…
Those are eye-catching prices. After reaching the Australian Open semi finals in January, Edmund – alongside his coach Fredrick Rosengren, who he looks to have a great relationship with – appears ready and primed to go onwards & upwards from here on in. With Andy Murray out injured, Edmund is the new British No.1, and that could be a title he ends up having for several years to come.
At the prices, and avoiding the reigning champ Rafa in the top half of the draw, Pouille and Edmund are my Each Way outside picks for Monte Carlo.
ATP Monte Carlo – Rolex Masters
Outright Winner:
BET: Lucas Pouille @ 28/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 28/1 (29.00) Bet365, Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, 25/1 (26.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boylesports, NetBet, 10Bet
STAKE: 1 pt – Each Way
BET: Kyle Edmund @ 50/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 50/1 (51.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 40/1 (41.00) Bet365, Skybet, Boylesports, NetBet, 10Bet
STAKE: 1 pt – Each Way
Latest odds here
Today’s play in Monte Carlo starts from 10am UK time. I’ll be back tomorrow with more from this week’s big Masters event.
Enjoy the tennis...
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson