Tennis Betting Advice - April 2019

Two match picks for today...

Wednesday 3rd April 2019

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • WTA Charleston & Monterrey...
  • Back Rogers as the underdog...
  • It’s a Rollover...

I said Alison Riske was a hit-or-miss player. This week goes down as a ‘miss.’

Our 20/1 outsider for WTA Monterrey, Riske was a 3/10 (1.30) favourite to beat Sachia Vickery in the 1st Round. Riske had three set points in the first set tiebreak, but lost five points in a row. She then capitulated in the second set, eventually losing 7-6, 6-1.

In the States, 16/1 pick Belinda Bencic fared much better – winning her 1st Round match 6-3, 6-0. Bencic is now as short as 6/1 for the WTA Charleston title. She plays again later today.

I’ve got two match picks for us today. One is an underdog at a nice price – excellent Ones to Watch territory. The other is a favourite – and I’ll come to that in a minute.

Back Rogers as the underdog...

Shelby Rogers is a Charleston county native. Her 1st Round win on Monday was an emotional one. Not just because it was in front of her ‘home’ fans, but because it marked her comeback from a horrible knee injury just over 12 months ago.

That 1st Round win was Rogers’ first WTA Tour match since the injury. It was her first clay-court match since the French Open 2017; that same year Shelby also reached the quarter finals here in Charleston.

The fairytale hometown comeback trophy win looks a few steps too far this week (as big as 200/1 in the Outright betting). But Rogers can carry Monday’s momentum through to register another win tonight, against an opponent who has been out of sorts and out of form for some time now...

Jelena Ostapenko won the French Open in 2017. Since then, she’s struggled on court more often than not. The new season offered the chance to wipe the slate clean and start again, but so far 2019 has been poor again with Ostapenko’s match record reading: won 5 lost 8.

Consistency has always been the problem with the Latvian. She can blow hot & cold (hit-or-miss) more than perhaps any other player on the women’s tour.

The most significant form pattern for me is the lack of back-to-back wins. Ostapenko hasn’t won two matches in a row at any tournament at any level since the US Open last summer. That run takes in 12 tournaments plus one Fed Cup (International) appearance.

The 21-year-old is odds-on at 1/3 (1.33) to break that cycle today. Rogers is guaranteed to give her all here and Ostapenko is likely to offer up plenty of chances at various stages in the match. Odds of 12/5 (3.40) and 9/4 (3.25) appeal for the match underdog.

  • More so than ever though, I’d advise betting with bookies that void bets in the event of the match not being completed. If Rogers’ old injury happens to flare up, we wouldn’t want to lose our stakes. Find out more about various bookies’ rules here

Ostapenko v Rogers is scheduled for the main stadium court, and is live on BT Sport from around 6pm today.

Today’s Ones to Watch match pick:

WTA Charleston – Volvo Car Open

BET: Shelby Rogers to beat Jelena Ostapenko @ 12/5
BOOKIES: 12/5 (3.40) BetVictor, 9/4 (3.25) Bet365, Betway, Boylesports, NetBet, 10Bet, 23/10 (3.30) William Hill

Latest odds here

It’s a Rollover...

With the arrival of spring and the peak summer tennis season in front of us, we’re going to be getting back into some match betting to go alongside our weekly Outright Winner picks.

Underdogs and outsiders are our main focus here at Ones to Watch. But there are dozens & dozens of tennis matches across the globe every week. And we can make money from following the occasional hand-picked favourite.

To do so, my plan is to start a new feature bet that we’ll simply call the Rollover...

This is something we’ve had success with in the past. Separate to our weekly match singles (1 point stakes) and Outright Winner (1 pt Each Way) tournament bets, I’ll be recording the Rollover to a £10 stake.

The aim is to roll that £10 stake over with match winner selections, cashing-out when we get to the £100 mark. I believe that’s an achievable target. We’re not reaching for the stars. And this new feature can hopefully add some extra excitement to our weekly tennis coverage.

  • The Rollover advice will always be to bet with bookies that void match bets for uncompleted matches. That way we’ll never lose our stake/ rollover pot due to a match retirement. Find out more about bookies’ rules here

We’re kicking off today with a player with a great record in Monterrey...

Today’s Rollover bet:

  • Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to beat Ivana Jorovic @ 1/3 (1.33)

Pavlyuchenkova is a four-time winner of the WTA Monterrey tournament, last lifting the trophy in Mexico in 2017. She showed signs of her past form with a run to the Australian Open quarter finals this January. Currently ranked No.33 in the world, the 27-year-old Russian looks a very worthy favourite to beat her younger opponent today.

Jorovic is ranked No.100 and is yet to get past the 2nd Round of any WTA main tour event. Age 21, there is plenty of time for that statistic to change. But today the Serbian is up against a very experienced opponent who has tasted victory many times on centre court here at Monterrey.

£10 on Pavlyuchenkova @ 1/3 can get the ball rolling for us tonight. The match is scheduled for around 2am, UK time. The best price is with William Hill and Boylesports.

Latest odds here

I’ll be back later in the week with more from Charleston & Monterrey.

Enjoy the tennis...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch