Tennis Betting Advice - April 2021

Sunday Night Club - Barcelona boys at 80/1...

Sunday 18th April 2021

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Sunday Night Club…
  • ATP Barcelona...
  • Ones to Watch at 80/1 and 100/1…

The purpose of our Sunday Night Club is to scoop up some early Outright Winner value for the upcoming week’s tournaments. With that in mind, I’ve listed below three outsiders that catch the eye with standout prices and/ or Each Way terms available this evening.

There are four tournaments kicking off from Monday morning. There are still some qualifying spots to be filled on the draw-sheets. As I write, the WTA Stuttgart markets are only just starting to appear. WTA Istanbul looks pretty uninspiring at the top of the market. For example, when winning a maiden title last time out, Veronika Kudermetova was 66/1. Here, she’s just 5/1.

Each Way terms…

ATP Belgrade sees world no.1 Novak Djokovic as the odds-on favourite, at just 1/2 (1.5) with Bet365. The Serbian star is almost literally playing at home here; the Novak Tennis Center being the place where Novak himself regularly trains.

With Djokovic as the massive name and market leader, most bookmakers are setting up here with the cautious (= tight) reduced Each Way terms of 1/3rd the odds for reaching the final. That makes the quest for value even tougher than usual. And my desire to go after the greater odds even more focused – with a third of the odds available for an underdog to make the final, as opposed to the usual 1/2 odds terms.

It’s a similar case at ATP Barcelona, where Spanish hero Rafael Nadal is the odds-on fav, at just 8/13 (1.62) with Bet365. Again, the 1/3rd EW issue comes in. Nadal has won this tournament six times out of the last nine. But as we saw last week in Monte Carlo, Rafa may be the Clay Court King - but he’s not unbeatable. Nobody is.

The players I like at Ones to Watch prices are as follows. With a special nod to Skybet, William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, who are all going by the standard and preferable Each Way terms of 1/2 odds for 1-2 places.

Elsewhere, Bet365, Boylesports, Ladbrokes & Coral are going 1/3rd odds. And as I write to you this Sunday evening, others such as Betway are yet to post their Outright Winner prices.

Ones to Watch in Barcelona at 80/1 and 100/1...

Carlos Alcaraz @ 80/1 with Skybet. The 17-year-old Spaniard is on our Ones to Watch in 2021 list this season. The teenager made the semi finals on clay in Marbella last time out. He’s tipped for great things. Let’s try and make sure we’re on him when the first big win comes.

Lorenzo Musetti @ 80/1 with Skybet. Same approach here, with the upside all in favour of the teenager. And like Alcaraz, clay is the playing surface of choice for the 19-year-old Italian. He’s got crazy-good talent. A first title is going to come along at some point. Again, we want to be at the biggest odds when it does.

Dan Evans @ 100/1 with William Hill. With other 1/2 odds EW firms going 60/1 and 50/1 (and Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook 33/1), the standout 100/1 for Dan is particularly worth taking if you can get it – and that includes with Bet365, too, who are betting 1/3rd odds Each Way.

The 30-year-old is set up for this to be the best season of his career. Dan has already won a debut title in 2021. And then just last week, Evans showed he can play on clay, with a big run to the Monte Carlo semi finals. Along the way, he beat Djokovic in straight sets. Confidence should be at an all-time high.

Ones to Watch

ATP Barcelona – Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell

Outright Winner – Each Way

  • Carlos Alcaraz is 80/1 with Skybet, 66/1 William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
  • Lorenzo Musetti is 80/1 with Skybet, 66/1 William Hill
  • Dan Evans is 100/1 with William Hill (also 100/1 with Bet365, at 1/3rd odds 1-2 EW)

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.

Play starts from 10am. Bookmakers take down their Outright Winner markets during the day’s matches.

I’ll be back soon with more on this week’s tournaments.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch