Tennis Betting Advice - April 2022

ATP Monte Carlo - Lorenzo's the name at 100/1...

Sunday 10th April 2022

Reach for the Rolex, it’s time for Sunday Night Club - and we’re off to Monte Carlo…

Time is of the essence for us tonight, as the ATP Monte Carlo Rolex Masters gets going for its first full day from 10am on Monday. I’ve got some long odds for us to snaffle up before play begins in the morning.

What’s more, as I write to you, I’m away from my usual desk. With the final round of the Augusta Masters golf panning out on the TV, I thought I’d make the move to the laptop in the living room. Not my usual ‘room of one’s own’ approach to writing. But, dear reader, rest assured that while I may be coming to you from a softer and wider seat than usual, I’ve done all my standard due diligence when it comes to researching the players and numbers…

Record 11-time Monte Carlo champion (yes, ELEVEN), Rafael Nadal, is absent this week. Doing all he can to get fit for next month’s French Open.

The top half of the 2022 Monte Carlo draw features three of the best players in the world right now. World no.1 Novak Djokovic at 11/4 (3.75), sharing favouristm in the Outright Winner betting with teenage sensation, Carlos Alcaraz. Along with Alcaraz, Casper Ruud is another Ones to Watch name, and he’s 10/1 (11.0) at best.

We’ll leave those guys and the short-price backers to fight it out. Only one out of Djokovic, Alcaraz, and Ruud can make the final. And of course, it’s entirely possible that none of them will get to the championship match next weekend…

Indeed, while Monte Carlo is the land of the high rollers, as recently as 2019 this event saw a 100/1 outsider strike gold, with Fabio Fognini winning the biggest title of his career. The hot-headed Italian is 34 years of age now, and 80/1 this time.

The Italian Job…

Italian tennis is in good shape right now. And when it comes to the prices on offer in the bottom half of the Monte Carlo draw, I’ve got three men from that country at the top of my notes tonight…

LORENZO MUSETTI (100/1, 80/1, 70/1, 66/1). This Italian youngster is on our Ones to Watch in 2022 list. The 20-year-old showed a glimpse of what he can do on clay at the French Open last year - reaching the Last 16, and taking two sets off Djokovic. This kid can seriously play. As with many highly-rated, talented young players, he’s only one big tournament run away from making a real name for himself.

LORENZO SONEGO (150/1, 100/1, 80/1). We’ve had Sonego in the book at massive prices before. The 26-year-old is at his most dangerous on clay: he’s won over 200 career pro matches on the red stuff, compared to 50-odd on hard courts. After 1st round defeats on hard courts in the States at both Indian Wells and Miami last month, Lorenzo will be glad to be back on the clay. He made an ATP 250 semi final on the dirt in Buenos Aires in February. This 1000-grade event in Monte Carlo is a big step up, but as I’ve said before, Sonego has the kind of go-for-broke game that can make exciting things happen on a tennis court.

JANNIK SINNER (25/1, 22/1, 20/1). Sinner is only 20 years old, but he’s already one of my favourite players on the tour. Level-headed, fast, smart, and with some serious hitting power - he’s destined to win big trophies. Jannik’s clay potential is better than his formbook might suggest. Last season for example, the slender-looking Italian ran into some very, very tough opponents: Nadal in the Last 16 at the French Open, and also Rafa in Rome; Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Barcelona semis, and Djokovic in the 2nd round here at Monte Carlo. Sinner has all the qualities needed to go far. I want to be on him when he wins a maiden Masters title. He’s getting closer.


Ones to Watch picks:

ATP Monte Carlo - Rolex Monte Carlo Masters

Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):

  • Lorenzo Musetti @ 100/1 Skybet, Boylesports, 80/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Ladbrokes, Coral, 70/1 BetVictor, 66/1 Bet365, William Hill, Betway
  • Lorenzo Sonego @ 150/1 Unibet, 100/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor, Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Coral, 80/1 Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, Betway
  • Jannik Sinner @ 25/1 Unibet, 22/1 Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, 20/1 Bet365, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boylesports, Betway


Play starts from 10am UK time. Bookies will take down their Outright Winner markets during the day’s play.

You can watch all the Monte Carlo matches live on Amazon Prime Video.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch