Tennis Betting Advice - April 2022

Looking forward to our trip to Madrid...

Tuesday 26th April 2022

The run-up to the French Open continues this week, with all the top-flight action once again taking place on European clay courts.

Two men’s 250-grade tournaments got underway on Monday. The BMW Open in Munich, Germany. And the Millennium Open in Estoril, Portugal. The Outright Winner markets don’t have any particular players that jump out to me at the prices. And price is key. We won’t go reaching for bets for the sake of it.

Our next big-odds opportunity is likely not far away. Indeed, it might come as soon as this Thursday…

Next stop, Madrid…

The Mutua Madrid Open is the latest ‘Masters 1000’ stop-off on both the ATP & WTA Tours. Madrid will promise a competitive field, as well as the potential for the latest surprise finalist to a make a breakthrough on the big stage…

Prior to the start of the 2021 season, nine of the last 10 ATP 1000 Masters events had been won by either Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, or Daniil Medvedev. But as we noted earlier this month, in the men’s game, the times they are a-changin’…

With Roger Federer turning 40 and seemingly close to retirement. And Nadal, Djokovic, and Andy Murray all very much on the wrong side of 30. The ‘changing of the guard’ moment is happening right here, right now…

After 150/1 outsider Alejandro Davidovich Fokina got to the Monte Carlo Masters final the other week – which was also his first appearance in an ATP final, full-stop. We can update out ATP 1000 stats since the start of 2021. And the ‘new kids on the block’ theme continues:

ATP ‘Masters’ 1000 events

11 finals played since start of 2021 season:

2022:

Monte Carlo – Stefanos Tsitsipas beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Miami – Carlos Alcaraz beat Casper Ruud

Indian Wells – Taylor Fritz beat Rafael Nadal

2021:

Paris – Novak Djokovic beat Daniil Medvedev

Indian Wells – Cameron Norrie beat Nikoloz Basilashvili

Cincinnati – Alexander Zverev beat Andrey Rublev

Toronto – Daniil Medvedev beat Reilly Opelka

Rome – Rafael Nadal beat Novak Djokovic

Madrid – Alexander Zverev beat Matteo Berrettini

Monte Carlo – Stefanos Tsitsipas beat Andrey Rublev

Miami – Hubert Hurkacz beat Jannik Sinner

That list shows that 16 different players have contested the last 11 Masters finals:

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Carlos Alcaraz
Casper Ruud
Taylor Fritz
Rafael Nadal
Novak Djokovic
Daniil Medvedev
Cameron Norrie
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Alexander Zverev
Andrey Rublev
Reilly Opelka
Matteo Berrettini
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Hubert Hurkacz
Jannik Sinner

What’s more, 11 of those 16 players were making their first appearance in a Masters 1000 final:

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Carlos Alcaraz
Casper Ruud
Taylor Fritz
Cameron Norrie
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Andrey Rublev
Reilly Opelka
Matteo Berrettini
Hubert Hurkacz
Jannik Sinner

And that list features some massive pre-tournament prices in the Outright Winner markets – including:

Hurkacz 100/1 champion
Fritz 100/1 champion
Norrie 66/1 champion

Davidovich Fokina 150/1 runner-up
Opelka 150/1 runner-up
Basilashvili 100/1 runner-up
Berrettini 50/1 runner-up
Ruud 40/1 runner-up
Sinner 33/1 runner-up

  • Bookies generally offer odds of 1/2 odds Each Way for reaching the final (eg. runner-up) 

Three down, six to go…

With those recent 33/1, 50/1, 66/1, and 100/1+ prices in mind. We can look forward to the upcoming Masters events with relish…

Still to come on the 2022 calendar in the ATP 1000 category, starting with Madrid:

  • 1st May – Madrid – clay
  • 8th May – Rome – clay
  • 7th August – Montreal – hard
  • 14th August – Cincinnati – hard
  • 9th October – Shanghai – hard
  • 31st October – Paris – indoor hard

See you on Thursday…

The men’s Madrid event starts over the Bank Holiday weekend. I’ll be covering that for you next week, after I return from a short trip away. Last season, ATP Madrid saw 25/1 Zverev beat 50/1 Berrettini in the final. Those are the kind of prices we like…

First up, the WTA Madrid event kicks things off for us in Spain, with the women’s 1st round starting from this Thursday. I’ll be in touch then, with my first player selections.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch