Tennis Betting Advice - April 2022

WTA Madrid – Ones to Watch at 10/1 and 100/1… 

Wednesday 27th April 2022

As promised, we’re off to Madrid for the next 10 days or so. The women’s Mutua Madrid Open starts on Thursday morning, followed by the men on Sunday.

The draw has been made, and this afternoon, I’ve watched with a keen eye as firms have started to go up online with their Outright Winner prices for WTA Madrid. That gives us the chance to strike early, and back a couple or more players at attractive odds…

Ones to Watch in Madrid…

The big news before a ball has been hit is that world no.1 Iga Swiatek has withdrawn. That’s no big surprise, considering the Polish star has just won four tournaments in a row, with little rest in-between. What’s more, Iga has won all three WTA 1000-grade events so far this season. She won’t be winning the fourth one…

Swiatek’s dominance has contributed to a stack of short-priced winners (by our outsider standards), at the WTA 500 and 1000 tournaments played thus far in 2022. Here are the pre-tournament prices of the winners and runners-up:

WTA 1000 events – 2022 to date:

WTA 1000 Miami - Hard
WINNER: I.Swiatek (5/1)
Runner-up: N.Osaka (16/1)
WTA 1000 Indian Wells - Hard
WINNER: I.Swiatek (13/2)
Runner-up: M.Sakkari (16/1)
WTA 1000 Doha - Hard
WINNER: I.Swiatek (8/1)
Runner-up: A.Kontaveit (7/1)

WTA 500 events – 2022 to date:

WTA 500 Stuttgart - Clay
WINNER: I.Swiatek (5/4)
Runner-up: A.Sabalenka (8/1)

WTA 500 Charleston - Clay
WINNER: B.Bencic (12/1)
Runner-up: O.Jabeur (10/1)
WTA 500 Dubai - Hard
WINNER: J.Ostapenko (40/1)
Runner-up V.Kudermetova (66/1)

WTA 500 St Petersburg - Indoor Hard
WINNER: A.Kontaveit (7/2)
Runner-up: M.Sakkari (6/1)
WTA 500 Sydney - Hard
WINNER: P.Badosa (12/1)
Runner-up: B.Krejcikova (12/1)

WTA 500 Adelaide - Hard
WINNER: A.Barty (7/2)
Runner-up: E.Rybakina (14/1)

Overall, from those nine WTA 1000 & 500-grade tournaments:

  • 9 out of 18 finalists at 8/1 or shorter (50%)
  • 16 out of 18 finalists at 16/1 or shorter (89%)

One from the top…

If that pattern continues, then we could do well to cover one of the top names here in Madrid. Especially with the player I like, PAULA BADOSA, just creeping into double-figure odds, at 12/1 and 10/1

Last year, Badosa became the first Spanish woman to reach the semi finals at the Madrid Open. Since then, the 24-year-old has climbed to a new top ranking of no.2 in the world. And lifted her first WTA 1000 trophy, at Indian Wells last October. With 146 professional match wins on clay, the orange stuff is officially Paula’s most-winningest surface.

Badosa has also added a fantastic element to her powerful and battling game: consistency. In her last four tournaments, she’s reached two quarter finals and two semi finals. Going back to the tail-end of last season, Paula has made the QF’s or better in seven of her last 11 tournaments – winning two of them. Impressive stuff. And that has to make her a contender here.

  • In comparison to Spanish no.1 Badosa, the next in line for her country is Garbine Muguruza (14/1 – 18/1). In 8 attempts, Muguruza has yet to reach the quarter finals here in Madrid. And in her career overall, Garbine has won more matches on hard courts than on clay
  • The outright favourite in the betting – in Swiatek’s absence – is Simona Halep (7/1). The Romanian has won Madrid twice, and reached the final 4 times in her last 7 visits. That’s the positive. The question marks come when we consider that Halep, who is now 30 years old, has had several injury layoffs in recent times. The former world no.1 is currently residing at no.21 in the rankings. This week will be Simona’s first competitive clay-court outing since Rome last May. Halep and Badosa are seeded to meet in the 2nd round. I’m with the younger player

Two at big prices…

In more familiar price territory, and in the opposite side of the draw, two of the teenagers in our Ones to Watch in 2022 report face off against each other in the 1st round – CLARA TAUSON and MARTA KOSTYUK

The 19-year-old Tauson a top-price 100/1 at William Hill, and 80/1 and 66/1 elsewhere.

Fellow 19-year-old Kostyuk is 80/1 and 66/1 with the mainstream firms, while SportNation, 10Bet & NetBet (all the same sportsbook) are going 150/1, with Sporting Index Fixed Odds at 125/1.

Staking advice:

I wouldn’t usually back two players when it’s assured that we’ll lose one in the very first match. But at 66/1+ each, and with the shape of this Madrid 2022 draw, I do think one of these two youngsters could put an outsider run together here. That being the case, I’m going to put them up as a ‘split stake’ bet. For example, instead of my usual 1 point Each Way, I’m taking Tauson and Kostyuk as 0.5 pt EW bets (total stake across the two, 2 pts).

With qualification spots still to be filled in on the 1st round schedule and drawsheet, we may well go in again at big prices as the Madrid event unfolds. As ever, I’ll keep you posted by email.

Hard hitters…

While it’s kind of obvious to say that we want to back a player with a decent clay-court track record, it’s also very much worth noting that previous winners of WTA Madrid have tended to be power-hitters; women with the ability to club the ball hard and true, and take the game out of their opponents’ hands. The likes of Badosa, Tauson, and Kostyuk fit this mould…

WTA Madrid – last 10 champions:

2021 – Aryna Sabalenka
2020 – [didn’t play]
2019 – Kiki Bertens
2018 – Petra Kvitova
2017 – Simona Halep
2016 – Simona Halep
2015 – Petra Kvitova
2014 – Maria Sharapova
2013 – Serena Williams
2012 – Serena Williams
2011 – Petra Kvitova

One name that is worthy of a mention on past merit is three-time Madrid winner, Petra Kvitova. The Czech is priced at 40/1 – 22/1 here. However, having been knocked out in the 1st round at two out of two clay-court events this month, right now, backing the 32-year-old would feel like a nostalgia bet, rather than one based on current form.


Ones to Watch picks:

Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):

WTA MadridMutua Madrid Open

  • Paula Badosa @ 12/1 Sporting Index Fixed Odds, 10/1 Skybet, Betfred, SportNation, NetBet, 10Bet, 9/1 Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral
  • Clara Tauson @ 100/1 William Hill, 80/1 Bet365, Sporting Index Fixed Odds, 66/1 Skybet, Betfred, SportNation, NetBet, 10Bet
  • Marta Kostyuk @ 150/1 SportNation, NetBet, 10Bet, 125/1 Sporting Index Fixed Odds, 80/1 Betfred, 66/1 Bet365, Skybet, William Hill


Play starts at 10am on Thursday, when bookies will take down their Outright Winner markets for the day.

I’ll be back next week with much more from Madrid, including the men’s event.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch