Tennis Betting Advice - April 2023

Ones to Watch in Houston at 25/1...

Monday 3rd April 2023

After this morning’s 50/1 one-to-watch for ATP Estoril, here’s part two of today’s Outright Winner preview, with a pair of 25/1 picks for the men’s event in Houston. Later in the week, we’ll be looking at the women’s tournament in Charleston.

Ones to Watch in Houston at 25/1…

Six of the last 10 Houston champions have been Americans. It’s rare to see a main-tour event on clay in the States. The Houston courts usually tend to favour the big servers, playing with a bit more speed in them than your traditional thick or boggy European/ South American clay courts…

Last year’s final sums that statement up, with an all 6’10”+ final between two massive-serving Americans, Reilly Opelka and John Isner. Serve from a great height like those two men do, and you can score some aces on a court like this that quite literally bounce over your opponent’s head.

The other four Houston trophy wins over the last 10 years have been made up of two Argentinean victories, a Chilean, and a Spaniard. Which sounds more like the roster of nationalities that you’d expect to see on clay.

There are two players I like at the prices here…

With the tour now switching to clay in the build-up to next month’s French Open in Paris. We could see a few upsets and/ or unlikely winners over the next week or two, as the higher-ranking names & favourites take a little time to adjust to the switch from hard courts to clay.

Two 25/1 underdogs that appeal to me with the potential to outperform their price and ranking at this week’s event: Jason Kubler and Marcos Giron.

Jason Kubler is ranked no.71 in the world. The 29-year-old Australian is one of those nearly-men on the ATP Tour; a case of what might have been for his talent, if it wasn’t for injuries. Jason showed glimpses of what he can do on the big stage last summer, reaching week two at Wimbledon (Last 16). And also won four matches on clay at Roland Garros to come through qualifying and reach the 2nd Round.

Twelve months ago, across March and April 2022, Kubler won back-to-back titles on clay on the lower-tier ITF circuit. His overall career match win-loss formbook says that clay is his best surface: 246 wins against 102 losses gives him a noteworthy 70.7% match win rate on clay – albeit with those wins mostly achieved below main ATP Tour level.

As I always say with players like this though, who are yet to win a first ATP title – a 250-grade like this one is exactly the kind of venue where the breakthrough is likely to come.

The same can be said about American 25/1 shot, Marcos Giron. We’ve backed him before at 250 events. If a bigger home name like Tommy Paul (who is joint-favourite for the trophy at 4/1 at best, alongside another US star, Frances Tiafoe) slips up on the transition to clay here, then a steady hitter like Giron is just the kind of unfashionable name that could step in and spring a surprise.

Like Kubler, world no.69 Giron is 29 years old, and yet to taste trophy-winning glory on the ATP Tour. But he has certainly shown signs of coming close, with three quarter-finals to his name already in 2023. Clay isn’t his best surface, but then again these Houston courts don’t exclusively play to dirt-ballers – and a USA 250 event is also likely to see a good effort from a man like Giron. Odds of 25/1 Each Way offer a decent amount of underdog appeal for us here.

Play starts from 8pm, UK time. Bookies will take down their Outright Winner markets during the day’s play….

Kubler takes on Fernando Verdasco tonight (scheduled Midnight+). Verdasco won this title back in 2014, but the fiery Spaniard is 39 years old now, and ranked at a lowly 232 in the world. The bookmakers have Kubler as a short odds-on favourite to progress.

Giron is drawn against Emilio Gomez tomorrow. The 31-year-old from Ecuador is ranked no.99, and arrives here on a four-match losing streak. The career head-to-head is 2-0 to Giron. The oddsmakers have the American as the favourite.


Ones to Watch picks:

Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)

ATP Houston – Fayez Sarofim & Co. U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championship

  • Jason Kubler @ 30/1 Unibet, 25/1 Bet365, Betfred, William Hill, Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betway 
  • Marcos Giron @ 25/1 Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boylesports



As well as this week’s other four tennis tournaments all being on the radar. Lookout for a little golf detour on Wednesday, when I’ll be naming my ‘ones to watch’ for this week’s Augusta Masters

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch