Tennis Betting Advice - April 2023
My 'ones to watch' for Augusta - at 28/1 and 100/1...
Wednesday 5th April 2023
Good morning. Things can change fast in this game…
Without hitting a ball, yesterday’s pick Laura Pigossi has gone from 40/1 to 14/1 in BetVictor’s Outright market for WTA Bogota. Largely due to the fact that tournament favourite and top seed Elise Mertens was knocked out in the 1st Round last night. William Hill are still 25/1 as I write this morning. Boylesports have 25/1 for our other Bogota selection, Kamilla Rakhimova.
In Estoril, our 50/1 & 40/1 teenage pick Luca Van Assche did well to come from a set down to win his 1st Round match yesterday. The 18-year-old Frenchman was taking on a home player, with Portuguese 34-year-old Pedro Sousa on a final lap before retiring. Van Assche is now 33/1 in general. Today’s match will be a great test for the upcoming youngster, as he faces the 6/1 tournament second-favourite Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Our boy Luca - currently the youngster player in the men’s world Top 100 - is on an 11-match winning streak.
In Houston, Bet365 must have been impressed by Marcos Giron’s 6-0, 6-2 demolition of Emilio Gomez. Chopping the American’s Outright Winner price in half, from 28/1 to 14/1, overnight. Giron is still available at 22/1 elsewhere, and 25/1 with Boylesports. Our other Houston pick Jason Kubler plays in the 2nd Round today, and can still be backed at 25/1 across the board.
And at WTA Charleston, Varvara Gracheva won her 1st Round encounter in straight sets, taking her current run of form to 15 wins from 18. From best odds of 50/1 & 40/1 on Tuesday, Gracheva is now 28/1 in general. Our 17-year-old Ones to Watch pick Linda Fruhvirtova is now trading at 33/1, which I assume means plenty of you backed her at 66/1, 50/1 or 40/1 yesterday…
Catch up on all of my previews and picks for this week’s tournaments on the links below:
4th April - WTA Charleston and WTA Bogota >>
My ‘ones to watch’ for Augusta…
And now, as promised, it’s that time of year again…
The answer to the question that nobody was asking…
Who am I backing for The Masters?
We did well with our foray into golf last year, with 28/1 shot Cameron Smith winning The Open at St Andrews.
Along with a couple of places at the Majors in recent years, we’ve done okay when switching our tennis rackets for a set of golf clubs…
As ever, the disclaimer here is that golf is most definitely not my main sport or key area of knowledge. I’m lucky in this job though in that I get more time than most to study markets, prices, and form. And I’m always looking for an appealing price, no matter what the event…
The Masters at Augusta is one of the highlights of any sporting calendar. I’ll certainly be tuning in to watch as much of the four rounds as I can over this Easter Bank Holiday weekend. The tournament runs from Thursday to Sunday night. Teeing off from Thursday at 1pm UK time, with the Sky Sports coverage starting at 2pm.
Looking beyond the hot favourites, which are never my line of business. The players & prices I like as Each Way contenders for The Masters 2023 are:
Cameron Young @ 28/1 and Will Zalatoris @ 40/1 - a pair of young Americans, both of whom caught my eye last year. Showing a touch of class, and a taste for the big-time tournaments… 25-year-old Young was runner-up at The Open last year, and Tied 3rd at the PGA Championship. While 26-year-old Zalatoris was T6 at The Masters in 2022, 2nd in a Playoff at the PGA Championship, and T2 at the US Open - as well as winning a first PGA Tour title at the FedEx St Jude. I could see either of these men in a Green Jacket one day…
According to the people who know their stuff, this year’s changes to the famous Augusta course are going to play into the hands of golfers who can really hoof the ball down the track. Two players who fit that bill in my mind are Viktor Hovland @ 35/1, and 2021 Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama @ 40/1. The 25-year-old Norwegian is in-form, with Hovland posting 4 x Top 10 finishes from 10 events played this season. And with Augusta experience often a key factor, if you’re going to back a former champ to do it again, then Matsuyama is a man with all the attributes. The 31-year-old from Japan could emulate what the likes of Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson, and Jack Nicklaus have done in years gone by - winning their second Masters title, two years after their first. Maybe there’s something in that one-year gap, with the pressure of being defending champion removed…
Last but not least, if you’re looking for a 100/1 shot to give an exciting Each Way run for your money, then Sahith Theegala is one to watch. The 25-year-old American is winning plenty of friends with his spirit and skills, and if he blows hot here, it could be party time - for a round or two at least. It’s been over 40 years since a debutant won at The Masters - but records are made to be broken, right?
Each Way shopping…
As ever, it pays to shop around for the best Each Way package. For a big event like this, the bookies tend to offer a variety of options, fighting for business by offering the most Each Way places - albeit often with the trade-off of reduced Outright or place-terms odds.
The general standard this week looks to be 1/5 odds for 1-8 places.
Betfair Sportsbook and Betway are going 12 places. Paddy Power, Ladbrokes & Coral have 10 places. (All at 1/5 odds.)
My choices for the five players I’ve named above:
Cameron Young @ 28/1 Paddy Power (10 places)
Will Zalatoris @ 40/1 Bet365 (8 places)
Viktor Hovland @ 35/1 Bet365, William Hill (8 places)
Hideki Matsuyama @ 40/1 Paddy Power (10 places)
Sahith Theegala @ 100/1 William Hill, Betfred, Skybet (8 places)
That’s my idea of some Easter sporting entertainment…
Get an expert’s opinion…
If you’d like to know what a dedicated golf-betting expert thinks - and I would suggest that you do. Then take a look at this comprehensive free Masters report from the Golf Insider.
And if you like what you see in this free report…
Then sign-up here to get all of the Golf Insider’smembers-only bets for the Masters. I can happily recommend this service, as it’s very much in the Ones to Watch mould - going after the underdogs and big Each Way prices, and with plenty of success…
Find out more about the Golf Insider here >>
Have a great Easter…
Enjoy the tennis. And enjoy the golf…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson