Tennis Betting Advice - April 2024
WTA Madrid: Ones to Watch at 40/1 and 250/1...
Monday 22nd April 2024
There are plenty of very good players available at very big prices in the WTA Madrid betting...
Take Ons Jabeur, for example. 80/1 is eye-catching for the woman who won this tournament as recently as 2022 - which was the last time she played here. As we saw with 33/1 Monte Carlo winner Stefanos Tsitsipas the other day: form is temporary, but class is permanent.
The thing with Jabeur is, the much-loved Tunisian just hasn't been at her best since a knee injury. And while Ons says the switch to clay courts right now is better for her knee, it remains a situation that doesn't fill you with the urge to back her. More worrying, too, is the loss of confidence from the former world no.2. She's still in the Top 10 at the moment, but last summer's second successive defeat in a Wimbledon final really took its toll.
I'll swerve the 80/1 here - and live with the regret, should Ons bounce back to her brilliant best in Spain this week.
Talking of regrets (I've had a few...). I had to take a ones-to-watch/ one-that-got-away near miss on the chin last week. 33/1 Stuttgart pick Qinwen Zheng somehow managed to fail to take any of her five match points against Marta Kostyuk...
The same Marta Kostyuk who came within one match of landing us an 80/1 whopper at Indian Wells in March (semi final)...
Kostyuk was 80/1 in Germany last week. And after showing her athleticism, skill, and grit to come through some enthralling close encounters. The 21-year-old Ukrainian went all the way to the final...
Marta lost that trophy match, soundly beaten in straight sets by Elena Rybakina. World no.4 Rybakina will go off as one of the Big Three in the WTA Madrid betting this week, alongside Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka. Kostyuk and Rybakina could meet again here, this time in the earlier rounds. Marta is 66/1.
We can't ignore Kostyuk's surge in form this year. Up to a new career-high of no.21 in the world, the Ones to Watch youngster has made the semi final or better in three tournaments in a row. However, after that semi-final run in Indian Wells last month, Marta then withdrew from the next week's event in Miami. Let's wait and see how and if she turns up here in Madrid, having played so much energy-sapping, high-tension tennis in Stuttgart last week.
It will also be interesting to see if Qinwen Zheng can shake off the mental scar tissue of that defeat to Kostyuk. Losing having had 5 x match points can take its toll mentally. The Chinese player is a classy and powerful ball-striker, but is still not quite the finished article. Zheng is 33/1 again here. She might run into trouble early on, with 250/1 rank outsider ANHELINA KALININA a potential opponent...
Kalinina holds a 2-1 head-to-head record v Qinwen Zheng (both victories coming in 2021 on clay, on the lower-tier ITF circuit). The world no.32 is yet to win a full-level WTA title. But the Ukrainian loves it on the clay, with 13 of her 16 pro-career singles titles coming on the orange stuff...
Kalinina made the Rome final on clay last May, at triple-figure odds. The 27-year-old therefore has a big batch of ranking points to protect looming on the horizon, with Rome coming up after Madrid - and both being high-value 1000-grade tournaments. Reaching the semi final at the smaller WTA Rouen event last week was a useful pipe-opener for this season's European clay-court swing, though. And with this section of the Madrid draw looking like it has the potential to open up for an outsider to come through, let's take Kalinina as a huge-price underdog, with clay-court pedigree.
One player I do want us to stick with from last time out in Stuttgart is our 2024 French Open early-bird pick, JASMINE PAOLINI...
As reported last week, the 28-year-old Italian is all set for her best ever year on the tour, and will be loving being back on the clay right now. A quarter final last week in Germany was a good showing, beating Jabeur, and then pushing eventual champ Rybakina to the full three sets. Paolini is 50/1 here. She's at a career-best ranking of no.13 right now....
Jasmine has never been past the 1st round in Madrid. But she had the same stat going into another WTA 1000 'Masters' event earlier this year, in Dubai - and went and won the whole thing.
Finally for our day-one picks in the women's Madrid event, let's back another familiar name who is looking to bounce back...
MARIA SAKKARI looks ahead of Jabeur in terms of getting her confidence back this season. The hard-working Greek changed coach recently, and that decision seems to have snapped her out of a funk...
The 28-year-old world no.6 got to the final at the big, WTA 1000 event at Indian Wells last month... followed it up with the quarter finals in Miami (another 1000-grade field)...and then a semi final at the WTA 500 in Charleston...
Back in 2021, Sakkari had match point in the French Open semi finals - and lost. It's taken time to get past that gut-wrenching Grand Slam moment. But Maria made the semis here in Madrid twelve months ago. She arrived at Indian Wells last month with semi-final 'previous', too - and got to the final. Sakkari can go well on these courts - better than odds of 40/1 suggest for this Top 10 player.
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See above for full details
WTA Madrid – Mutua Madrid Open
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Anhelina Kalinina @ 250/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 200/1 William Hill, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral
Jasmine Paolini @ 50/1 Skybet and in general
Maria Sakkari @ 40/1 Skybet, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, Betfred, Boylesports, Betway
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Play starts at 10am, UK time. The tournament runs until the end of next week. Bookies will take down their Outright Winner markets before each day's play.
You can watch the Mutua Madrid Open live on Sky Sports, and with bookies such as Bet365.
I'll be in touch again soon with a preview for ATP Madrid, too - the men's event starts a day later than the women's.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Drop me a line at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone