Tennis Betting Advice - April 2025
ATP Madrid: Ones to Watch at 50/1 and 100/1...
Tuesday 22nd April 2025
We’re off to Madrid today, where the men’s 1st round starts on Wednesday morning…
There have been three ATP Masters 1000 events played so far in 2025, and four of the six finalists have gone off at odds of 33/1+. We’re going to keep going for the big prices…
We were on JIRI LEHECKA at 60/1 - 33/1 here in Madrid last year. The Czech Ones to Watch player did very well for us there by getting to the semi finals… only to then have to pull out injured. As I mentioned in your pre-season report, fitness issues are the main barrier to Lehecka going further in the sport right now (see also, his countrymen: Jakub Mensik, and Tomas Machac).
However, the fact remains, when those Czech guys are fit and on it, they’re all capable of competing at a very high level. Here at the Mutua Madrid Open 2025, Lehecka at 100/1+ is one I’m willing to take the risk on…
Part of the reason that price is so big is because the world no.27 is drawn to face Spanish superstar Carlos Alcaraz early on. Alcaraz has won Madrid twice already. But the 21-year-old has just played back-to-back tournaments, reaching the final in both (Monte-Carlo - won, Barcelona - runner-up). And while the pressure to show up and go again in Spain is huge, Carlos will surely slow down at some point, with a French Open crown to defend in the weeks ahead.
Alcaraz is the 11/5 (3.2) favourite for the trophy. Defending champion Andrey Rublev beat Carlos here last season, and went on to take the silverware. The Russian is one to keep an eye on this spring, having recently teamed up with Marat Safin, who was some player in his day. Odds of 28/1+ are tempting for the reigning champ, but Rublev is known for struggling under pressure; he’s never successfully defended an ATP title the next time out.
Rublev is yet to get over the quarter-final hump in a Grand Slam, for that matter (10 and zero so far in Major quarter finals). Maybe two-time Grand Slam winner Safin can help him change that. Here at Masters 1000 level in Madrid, Rublev has credentials and gets my respect - but he’s not a bet selection for me as it stands.
This Brazilian teenager is a rising star…
While we’re going for longshot odds with 100/1 Lehecka. Let’s go with youth in the shape of teenager JOAO FONSECA at 50/1 - 33/1. As with Alcaraz when he was first breaking onto the senior scene, we should follow Fonseca at chunky prices while we still can…
The 18-year-old has already posted a first career ATP title this year, on clay in Buenos Aires. And the talented Brazilian certainly looks to have that ‘this kid is the real deal’ feel about him. The sky’s the limit when a young star first shows up; let’s take Fonseca on both price, and potential.
I also want to see how Lorenzo Musetti (40/1) and Stefanos Tsitsipas (50/1) shape up in the early stages this week. Both have stellar clay-court capabilities. But both also arrive here on the back of fitness-based withdrawals last time out.
You can’t back them all…
Alex De Minaur (33/1) is also on my radar. The 26-year-old world no.7 is a Mr Consistent on the tour. With that tag in evidence again of late - despite clay not being the natural court of choice for the Aussie - with Alex going semi-final in Monte-Carlo and then quarter-final in Barcelona this month. The 26-year-old is yet to win an ATP title on clay though - or win a Masters 1000.
One young man who has lifted a Masters trophy already is Jack Draper. The world no.6 is also searching for a debut clay title, although there’s still plenty of time for the 23-year-old Brit to change that. Jack’s booming left-handed forehand and serve can drive him deep in any tournament. But as with some of the other names I’ve mentioned today, the spectre of injury often looms. He has a tough draw, too.
Draper’s 28/1 this week. He’s in the same half of the field as the aforementioned Lehecka, Alcaraz, Fonseca, Musetti, Tsitsipas, and De Minaur. That being so, we’ll stick with Lehecka and Fonseca here.
We look to that top half for our third pre-tournament pick for ATP Madrid…
This is Rublev’s side of the draw, although no.1 seed and last week’s Munich champ Alexander Zverev is the leading name. The German world no.2 has made the finals three times out of seven in Madrid, winning the title on two occasions. Zverev is 10/1 in general here.
Call me a glutton for punishment, but I’m going again with HOLGER RUNE at 20/1 here. The young Dane has won elsewhere for us before at 33/1, and got to a final at 20/1. He’s also pulled out sick in two of the last three tournaments we’ve backed him in. Only to then bounce back and win the 500-grade title in Barcelona at 14/1 last week, beating headline name and home favourite Alcaraz in the final.
In-form and full of self-belief? Yes. Fully fit this week and next? I can’t tell you. But Rune has long been on my ‘real-deal’ list, and he loves the big stage. The 21-year-old world no.9 has a good-looking draw here, and I wouldn’t put it past him surging to another final.
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
Outright Winner – Each Way:
ATP Madrid - Mutua Madrid Open
Jiri Lehecka @ 150/1 Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM & LiveScoreBet (Each Way: 1/3 odds 1-2 places). Or 100/1 Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports, Betway, Ladbrokes, Coral (EW: 1/2 odds 1-2)
Joao Fonseca @ 50/1 Betfred, Boylesports, Betway, 40/1 BetVictor, 33/1 Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral (EW: 1/2 odds 1-2)
Holger Rune @ 22/1 Boylesports, 20/1 Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Betway (EW: 1/2 odds 1-2)
Still to price up: Skybet, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook.
Play starts from 10am on Wednesday, UK time. Bookies will take down Outright Winner markets during play.
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Note:
The women’s Madrid Open started today, with the 1st round in action as I write. Look out for any WTA Madrid picks hitting your inbox in the evenings this week, in order for us to get the Outright Winner markets while they’re online, once the day’s matches are done - and before play resumes again at 10am, UK time.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone