Tennis Betting Advice - April 2025
Lights out in Madrid = time to make our next move...
Monday 28th April 2025
A major power-cut in Spain has seen play suspended for the day at the Madrid Open…
This from the tournament’s official social media channels this afternoon:
“For reasons beyond the control of the organisation and in order to guarantee general safety, the nationwide power-cut experienced in Spain on Monday 28 April has forced the cancellation of both the day and night sessions at the Mutua Madrid Open.”
The upshot of those unforeseen circumstances is that we get to take a revised look at the Outright Winner markets for Madrid…
As I write this Monday afternoon, bookies’ prices are beginning to reappear online. With no play in Madrid until 10am Tuesday, UK time (as it stands). We can now make our next move with some time on our side…
In the women’s event, our Ones to Watch youngster Diana Shnaider has looked sharp and hungry so far - posting a pair of 2-0 match wins. Including a 6-0, 6-0 ‘double bagel’ score-line last time out. And before that, another dominant win: 6-1, 6-2. As I’ve said many times before with exciting new players arriving on the scene, they can rip through a tournament draw, seemingly out of the blue…
In the book for us last week at 100/1 - 80/1, Shnaider’s next test is the biggest in the women’s game on clay these days. The 21-year-old Russian will take on world no.2 and four-time French Open champion (and fellow former teenage Ones to Watch name), Iga Swiatek…
I was looking forward to watching young left-hander Shnaider take on the reigning WTA Madrid chap this afternoon. We’ll now have to wait for Tuesday for that match.
Taking into account the draws - and we’re not even at the quarter-finals stage in Madrid yet - and the latest odds. We can take a further swing at the Outright markets today…
The men’s event looks wide open, with Carlos Alcaraz withdrawing (no big surprise to you & I, as alluded to in last week’s preview). Novak Djokovic is also out.
With world no.1 Jannik Sinner suspended, no.2 Alexander Zverev is the top seed. The German is just 11/4 (3.75) to win the title from here - but he’s got a very tough match against Francisco Cerundolo coming up. Cerundolo loves the clay, and he’s 2-0 in previous meetings v Zverev, both on clay…
The likes of Jack Draper and Casper Ruud are also looking good. But none of those guys - Cerundolo, Draper, Ruud - are any bigger than 10/1 in the latest prices. And a bit shorter in general.
In comparison, Czech Ones to Watch in 2025 Report teenager JAKUB MENSIK appeals at around 17/1…
Let’s do the numbers…
The 19-year-old has already shown his high-level, Masters 1000 quality this season - winning the Miami Open at huge odds.
Now up to a career-high no.23 in the world, Mensik went off at 40/1 before hitting a ball in Madrid last week…
Since then, the big-serving young gun has reeled off two 2-0 match wins, including a very strong showing against world no.13 Ben Shelton, who is no easy opponent for anyone.
Working backwards from Mensik’s day-one price of 40/1, and factoring in the match odds for his two wins so far. The revised ‘to win the trophy from here’ price comes out almost bang-on 17/1…
It’s looking like Mensik will settle around the 16/1 - 12/1 mark with the high-street/ major firms this evening. Which considering the circumstances and how open this field now looks, is fine with me…
Not our usual price territory perhaps, but the teenager has already booked his place in the Last 16 - while the power-cut situation means a lot of other players are still waiting to play their 3rd-round match…
What’s more, Mensik will go off as a short favourite to beat Alexander Bublik in the next round, and book a place in another Masters quarter final…
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
ATP Madrid - Mutua Madrid Open
Check with other firms when markets are available - play is due to resume on Tuesday at 10am (UK time).
Bookies will take down Outright Winner markets during play.
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Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone