Tennis Betting Advice - August 2018

US Open: Bets of the Day – 4/1 for a shock today…

Wednesday 29th August 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • US Open Day Three – play starts 4pm…
  • Murray to win 3-1…
  • 4/1 for a shock today…

Good morning and welcome to Day Three of your US Open 2018 service…

Play starts from 4pm, UK time.

Ding, ding – Round 2…

The 2nd Round starts today. So far the tournament has had two big stories. World No.1 Simona Halep getting knocked out – the first ever Women’s top seed to lose in her opening match at the US Open. And the use of the Extreme Heat rule, with 10-minute breaks in play introduced for both the men and women yesterday. Five men’s matches saw retirements classed as ‘heat related.’ Conditions are expected to be tough again today.

Our 28/1 pick Caroline Wozniacki won her opening match yesterday, seeing off erratic former champion Sam Stosur, 6-3, 6-2. A few bookies have now cut the World No.2’s Outright Winner price to below the 20/1 mark, so we’ve bagged ourselves a good price here. Elise Mertens (66/1) and John Isner (50/1) both play in the 2nd Round for us today.

A handful of matches catch the eye on day three…

Make the most of Murray…

Andy Murray is 4/6 (1.67) to beat Fernando Verdasco. When they met last season Murray was closer to 1/10 (1.10) in the betting. A long injury layoff since then explains the price. These two are both over 30 and have met numerous times over the years. Murray leads the all-time career head-to-head 13-2. He’s won the last 8 in a row, and is 10-1 v the Spaniard on hard courts.

They’ve had a few battles over the years though, including a 3-2 win for Andy in his run to a first Wimbledon title in 2013 – coming from two sets down on that occasion. Verdasco is known for long matches. Neither player will want to be on court for too long in the afternoon heat today, but they might not have a choice…

Since returning from injury, just 2 of Murray’s 8 matches have been settled in straight sets.

Murray is the odds-on favourite to win, but in the Total Games market the bookies make Over 39.5 Games the general line at around 10/11 (1.91) – meaning four sets or more are anticipated.

In the Total Sets betting, Over 3.5 Sets is 4/7 (1.57) at best.

Much more attractive odds in the region of 7/2 (4.50) therefore, stand out for Murray to win 3-1. That was the outcome in his first match, and two of the last three Grand Slam encounters between these two experienced players have seen both men get at least a set each on the scoreboard.

Andy Murray v Fernando Verdasco:

BET: Set Betting – Murray to win 3-1 @ 18/5 (4.60)
BOOKIES: 18/5 (4.60) 888 Sport, Unibet, Marathonbet, 7/2 (4.50) Skybet, 10/3 (4.33) general

Latest odds here

Looking for the upsets…

Yesterday’s pick was void, with Mihaela Buzarnescu pulling out injured before her match.

Potential upsets on the cards today include the in-form Daniil Medvedev on a 7-match winning streak taking on fellow rising star Stefanos Tsitsipas, who was an 80/1 finalist at the Toronto Masters recently. In the Women’s, the attacking play of Camila Giorgi could give the veteran Venus Williams a few problems. However in both cases the underdog is only just past the Even Money (2.00) mark in the betting – not enough to scream value at me on this occasion.

There’s a big price to be had elsewhere in the Women’s…

We’ve already seen World No.1 Simona Halep knocked out by a 5/1 (6.00) shot, against a player in Kaia Kanepi who had given her a tough match once before.

Today the World No.7 Elina Svitolina has a tricky one on her hands…

Tatjana Maria has beaten Svitolina before and stands out at 4/1 (5.00) to pull off the shock knockout win today. The head-to-head is 1-1, with Maria’s win coming just last month in the 1st Round of Wimbledon. The German World No.70 started well this week with a 2-0 win over former Wimbledon finalist Agnieszka Radwanska.

Svitolina dropped a set in her opener, eventually winning 2-1 against World No.78 Sachia Vickery, despite making more than twice as many Unforced Errors as Winners (35 to 16).

The pressure is on the 23-year-old Ukrainian to start delivering at Grand Slams, having yet to get past a quarter final despite numerous wins on the WTA Tour and an established Top 10 ranking.

Today, in the heat, against an opponent that she has lost to before, Svitolina is one to oppose at the price.

Match Winner:

BET: Tatjana Maria to beat Elina Svitolina @ 4/1
BOOKIES: 4/1 (5.00) Bet365, William Hill, Boylesports, Betway, BetVictor

Latest odds here

In summary…

Here are today’s Bets of the Day (see above for full details):

  • Set Betting – Andy Murray to beat Fernando Verdasco 3-1 @ 18/5
  • Match Winner – Tatjana Maria to beat Elina Svitolina @ 4/1

I’ll be back at 10am tomorrow with your Bets of the Day for Thursday.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch