Tennis Betting Advice - August 2019
US Open: Day Four – take the Riske at 125/1…
Thursday 29th August 2019
US Open - Day Four
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to Day Four of your US Open 2019 daily service.
I’m in your inbox 11am every day, sharing all my US Open thoughts, opinion, analysis and advice with you.
If you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’ll be on hand via email.
You can message me at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk
Wednesday washout…
Rain stopped play yesterday. All the outside-court matches ended up being called off.
The two main stadium courts both have a roof, so the showpiece matches were able to be completed on Arthur Ashe and Louis Armstrong. That was just eight matches in total, though.
The US Open organisers have a busy day ahead with over 50 matches on the revised 2nd Round schedule in the men’s & women’s singles alone.
The New York weather forecast for the rest of the week is looking nice and sunny.
Warning signs? Or just warming up…
The top players haven’t had it all their way in the first few days.
Serena Williams had to come from behind to beat a teenager last night. Simona Halep was taken the distance to three sets in her opener, and likewise Ashleigh Barty.
Roger Federer has lost the first set in both of his matches, and not looked his usual sharp self. Novak Djokovic has won through the first two rounds 3-0, but also doesn’t look in the most ominous of form at this stage. Djokovic had the trainer on three times last night, with his shoulder giving him problems.
Those five players are all among the tournament favourites, with all bar Barty (10/1) trading at single-figure prices in the Outright Winner markets.
So far, 10 seeded players are already out of the men’s draw, and six seeds have been sent packing in the women’s.
Our Ones to Watch approach is to look for youngsters, outsiders and underdogs at attractive prices in the Outright markets. Shocks and upsets are what we want. Big names struggling or going home early gives us encouragement.
Of course, we can’t land a whopper every time. And it is entirely possible that Novak’s shoulder will suddenly start to feel better… Federer will start firing on all cylinders… and Serena will get to yet another Grand Slam final. But we don’t know. Nobody does.
We move onto Day Four with our eyes open and with that Ones to Watch approach at the forefront of our thinking…
Our players…
Karolina Pliskova was one of the lucky ones yesterday. Pliskova got to play her match, meaning she gets an extra recovery day compared to all the players who were postponed on Wednesday and now face the prospect of back-to-back rounds. Karolina won 2-0 for the second match running. Our 14/1 Each Way Outright Winner pick moves safely into the 3rd Round.
Today the rest of our players are in action:
On the Match Winner front, we have these rain-delayed selections carried over from yesterday’s email:
Our Rollover came to an abrupt halt overnight. After two winning trebles, Wednesday’s double fell with Reilly Opelka dumped out in straight sets. We will go again next time.
Full-on Thursday…
Today looks a treat for tennis fans. Sunshine. Loads of Grand Slam matches. And some intriguing encounters in store…
Dan Evans v Lucas Pouille should be fun. Expect exciting rallies, a rollercoaster scoreboard and a fair bit of feistiness, too…
Evans lost out in a dramatic five-set heartbreaker at Wimbledon. Pouille had a five-set epic at the French Open. And seven of the Frenchman’s last nine Grand Slam matches on hard courts have gone to at least four sets. This will be their first ever meeting.
There’s already been British heartache this week with Kyle Edmund edged out in a fifth-set nail-biter. Don’t be surprised if this one goes the distance, too.
Rather than odds-on for a high number of Total Games in the Under/ Over options, Pouille to take it 3-2 stands out at odds of 6/1 in the Set Betting market.
Alexander Zverev v Frances Tiafoe promises excitement, too. Zverev consistently makes hard work of the early rounds in Grand Slams (let a two-set lead slip in the 1st Round). Tiafoe loves to get pumped up and will play to the American crowd support at every opportunity. The German can take heart from the fact that he’s come out on top in straight sets in both of their previous Grand Slam encounters.
John Isner v Jan-Lennard Struff features two guys who will be belting the ball as hard as they can, especially on serve. Each of their previous three meetings have seen at least one Tiebreak set (7-6). The bookies make it short odds-on at 1/10 (1.10) at best that we see another today.
Pouille to win 3-2 at 6/1 is my appealing price in the men’s today. In the women’s, we’re fully engaging the Ones to Watch mindset and going for a player with promising credentials at rank outsider prices…
Take the Riske at 125/1…
Forgive the surname pun, but this one really does fit the bill.
A large part of Ones to Watch is about spotting the young players on the up. The future Grand Slam champions. But a player can hit form at any time. And sometimes the big breakthrough comes later in the career…
No better example springs to mind than Flavia Pennetta’s triumph, right here at the US Open in 2015. Starting the tournament as a mere footnote at 200/1, the 33-year-old went on to not only make her first and only Grand Slam final – but win the whole thing.
Alison Riske is 29 years of age. After a best-ever Slam result at Wimbledon this summer, where she made the quarter finals from starting odds of 200/1, the American is up to a career high of No.36 in the world.
The grass courts have been her best hunting ground. Riske won two titles on the turf this summer (one on the lower-tier ITF Tour), as well as the quarter final at SW19. But as an American, Alison is always going to have played more tennis on the hard courts than on any other surface. After knocking out two-time Major winner Garbine Muguruza in the 1st Round, Riske is up to 179 career wins on hard courts – more than on any other surface.
At the start of this year, Alison made the final at WTA Shenzhen on hard courts, finishing runner-up as a 40/1 shot. Along with ‘s-Hertogenbosch on grass this summer, the American’s only other career title to date came on hard courts, at Tianjin back in 2014.
Back to the present, and Alison seems all smiles right now. After Wimbledon, Riske got married to fellow tennis player, Stephen Amritaj.
And she seems to have found the pressure-off valve that comes with age, which might just help this formerly inconsistent player make the next big step up in the game…
In Alison’s own words:
"I think I have matured a lot over the last couple of years … I think I have just come to a point where I have a little bit of freedom here. I feel really confident. I feel like I'm playing good tennis. I can compete with anyone."
Beating Muguruza in Round 1 was a good start. Riske can build on that today by beating 2017 French Open winner Jelena Ostapenko. The 22-year-old Latvian is wildly unpredictable. Riske should have her measure both on serve and in terms of in-rally reliability. Both of these players like to pull the trigger with their shots. But Riske has shown some impressive point-construction nous this summer and has a newfound confidence that she can deliver on the big stage.
Located in the top half of the draw, in Quarter 2 where we originally targeted the big prices with 33/1 Sloane Stephens, Riske looks an appealing ‘One to Watch’ with odds of 100/1+ widely available. If she can string a couple more wins together – and/ or if any of the big guns in the top half get knocked out – then that price will give us lots to work with.
Today’s Ones to Watch picks:
Dan Evans v Lucas Pouille:
BET: Set Betting – Pouille to win 3-2 @ 6/1
BOOKIES: 6/1 (7.00) Boylesports, 11/2 (6.50) Skybet, 5/1 (6.00) Bet365, Betway, Marathonbet, 888 Sport, Unibet
Women’s – Outright Winner:
BET: Alison Riske @ 125/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 125/1 888 Sport, Unibet, 100/1 Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, Betway, Betfred, Boylesports, NetBet, 10Bet
Latest Women’s Outright Winner odds here
I’ll be back at 11am tomorrow with your next US Open daily email…
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson