Tennis Betting Advice - August 2020

Keeping the dream alive...

Wednesday 26th August 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Western & Southern Open, New York…
  • 100/1 shots in with a chance…
  • Quarter Finals today…

100/1 shots in with a chance…

I’m in US Open Training right now. That means the late nights have started. I’m on back-to-back 2am+ plus finishes this week. I may or may not have nodded off on the sofa last night, before rousing myself to make it up the wooden hill to bed.

Today is quarter finals day at the Western & Southern Open in New York. After last night’s results, we have three Ones to Watch players still standing, and in with chances…

The dream of course is to land a Big One. In the Big Apple this week, that would mean one of our 100/1 Each Way outsiders in the women’s event making the final. In the men’s, I’d also be more than happy if our 8/1 shot Stefanos Tsitsipas went all the way.

Here are our remaining picks, their prices, and details of their quarter final matches:

Jessica Pegula 100/1 – now 16/1

Pegula takes on 14th seed Elise Mertens today, and is a 2/1 outsider to reach the semi final. This is their first meeting on the tour. Pegula is on a five-match streak on these courts, and has so far won as the underdog against higher-ranked players in all three rounds in the main draw.

Mertens will run all day, and has a sharp forehand, and great defence. The Belgian is the 2/5 (1.4) favourite. Pegula has momentum and confidence. If our player stays aggressive and accurate, she has a chance of causing another upset here.

Ons Jabeur 100/1 – now 13/2 (7.5)

Jabeur has looked a class act in the last two rounds, taking little over an hour to beat Madison Keys, and then the same again in yesterday’s 2-0 win over Christina McHale. The former was short on match form, and the latter had blisters hampering her movement in the second set. That said, some of Jabeur’s shot-making has been absolutely sublime.

Today, the Tunisian is priced up as an 8/13 (1.62) favourite to beat former world no.1, Victoria Azarenka, in their first career meeting.

The 31-year-old Azarenka has shown a return to form and fitness here, winning three matches in a row for the first time since May 2019. However, the Belarusian can sometimes lack a Plan B with her big-hitting, base-line style. The racket-smart Jabeur could take advantage of that and mix things up in the rallies.

Stefanos Tsitsipas 8/1 – now 10/3 (4.33)

Tsitsipas has had to take on the tall guys this week. He beat 6’8” Kevin Anderson in his opening match, then 6’10” John Isner last night – both without dropping a set. The Isner match was close though, with the all-tiebreak score of 7-6, 7-6 to the talented and hard-working Greek player.

Tonight, Tsitsipas takes on yet another massive server, in the shape of 6’11” Ones to Watch in 2020 name, Reilly Opelka. The American has also yet to drop a set this week, and has served 50 aces across his three matches. Stefanos has never faced Reilly before, but he’ll certainly have had some good practise after returning a lot of Isner’s serves on Tuesday night.

The bookies make our man 2/5 (1.4) to reach the semis. Opelka is 2/1 (3.0). Skybet have a ‘Tie-break Triumph’ market, where Tsitsipas to win the match 7-6, 7-6 is priced at 13/2 (7.5), with the Opelka option at 12/1 (13.0).

  • We’ve backed a total of six players in the Outright Winner (Each Way) markets this week. If you want to place ‘saver bets’ on any of the matches or players above, then stake accordingly. If any of our picks win their quarter finals today, then they’ll be one match away from an Each Way payout – at which stage, you’d be able to trade again if desired or required

One thing is for sure. We’re on some good prices this week. Especially with two 100/1 shots in the quarter finals. That’s proper Ones to Watch territory.

Today’s play starts from 4pm, UK time. All the matches in both the men’s & women’s events are live on Amazon Prime Video.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch