Tennis Betting Advice - August 2021

US Open Day 2 – teenage choice at 200/1…

Tuesday 31st August 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • US Open – Day 2…
  • 300/1 & 200/1 outsiders…
  • 1st Set Tiebreaks…

It’s good to be back…

The US Open is underway, and day one in New York didn’t disappoint. The fans are back – and they were treated to some fantastic matches on Monday. Not least the five-set epic between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andy Murray. The three-set ball-lashing contest between Angelique Kerber and Dayana Yastremska was also a highlight for me.

Amazon Prime Video are showing all the matches, and at several points throughout the evening I was ‘double screening’ – one on the TV, one in my hand on my phone. If I get the computer and laptop involved, I’ll have a full video-wall set-up going.

A couple of you have emailed this season about the acca bonuses that Bet365 dish out. Well worth being aware of if you’re into your match accumulators. Well done to Ones to Watch member David, who collected a 25/1 payout last night – with the odds boosted thanks to a very nice 70% acca bonus from Bet365. Find out more about that offer here.

Hats off also to Paul, who pulled off a profitable trade on the match between Leylah Fernandez and Ana Konjuh – despite the result going against my own match pick, Konjuh. Well played, Paul. That one all hinged on the first set in the end; Konjuh led 5-3 and had two set points, but the Canadian teenager turned it around, 7-6. And then walked away with the second set, 6-2.

Big-odds betting in the Big Apple…

In the Outright Winner markets, we’ve got a clutch of players in the book at odds in the region of 25/1 & 28/1 and 33/1 & 40/1. Along with Hubert Hurkacz at 100/1 & 80/1. Those names are:

Aryna Sabalenka – won 1st round match yesterday, 2-1
Danielle Collins – won 1st round match yesterday, 2-0
Elena Rybakina – won 1st round match yesterday, 2-0
Belinda Bencic – plays in 1st round today

Andrey Rublev – won 1st round match yesterday, 3-0
Hubert Hurkacz – plays in 1st round today

At the prices we go for, the plan is to cover several outsider contenders at attractive Each Way odds. At the triple-figure end of the betting spectrum, let’s add a couple of 100/1+ livewires into the mix today…

Ones to Watch at 300/1 and 200/1…

We’ve followed Sara Sorribes Tormo three times this summer. At 66/1 at the Olympics (3rd round), 80/1 at the WTA 1000 event in Montreal (quarter final), and 16/1 last week at the smaller WTA 250 tournament in Cleveland (semi final).

As I said on each occasion, Sorribes Tormo is having the season of her life, and is one of the fiercest competitors on the tour right now. At odds of 250/1, I’ve got absolutely no problem following the Spaniard again here in New York.

The 24-year-old is up to a career-high of no.41 in the world, and she can work her slow magic by grinding out an underdog victory against world no.24 Karolina Muchova today.

Muchova is a player I like; we’ve backed her several times before, and she’s extremely talented. But an abdominal issue seems to keep rearing its head this season, and the 25-year-old Czech hasn’t quite been able to hit her top level in recent months, and especially not maintain it match after match.

Odds of 13/10 (2.3) make Sorribes Tormo the slight outsider in today’s match. If the Spaniard can get through this one, then the draw looks comparatively light for the following two rounds. After that, a potential rematch with world no.1 Ash Barty could be in store – Barty being the woman that Sara beat in the 1st round at the Olympics.

Sorribes Tormo is equipped to handle the heat and humidity in New York, and is very much an outsider to follow this season overall. The best way to back her in the Outright markets in terms of bang for your buck is 300/1 to win with Unibet, combined with 200/1 ‘To Reach the Final’ with Bet365. Alternatively, back her Each Way at the best Outright Winner prices available – 300/1 & 250/1.

In the 1st Quarter Winner market (eg. to reach the Semi Final), odds of 35/1 & 33/1 also appeal, and would give you plenty to work with should Sara go deep this fortnight.

Keep an eye on the teenagers…

My pre-season Ones to Watch in 2021 list featured a ‘teenagers’ section, with five players named. Three of those were in action yesterday, and they all won at match underdog prices – Brandon Nakashima (now age 20) beat John Isner, Carlos Alcaraz (age 18) beat Cameron Norrie, and as mentioned, 18-year-old Leylah Fernandez beat Ana Konjuh.

Today, 19-year-old Lorenzo Musetti is an odds-on 1/3 (1.33) favourite to beat fellow teenager Emilio Nava – the player he beat in the Australian Open Junior’s final in 2019.

The other is Marta Kostyuk – a youngster that we’ve backed at massive odds a few times already this year: 150/1 at WTA Miami (1st round), 100/1+ at the US Open (4th round, Last 16), and 150/1 at Wimbledon (2nd round). No rewards as yet, but I really like this 19-year-old – she has the pace, power & no-fear tennis to ‘do an Iga Swiatek’ and be the next teenager to create a 100/1 shock at a women’s Grand Slam…

At these prices, it’s all upside for me. Kostyuk has the potential to be the real deal, and odds of 200/1, 150/1 & 125/1 mark her out as one to follow. She has a tough assignment in the 1st round v Maria Sakkari in the 1st round today, but it’s far from impossible. Odds of 2/1 make Marta a decent underdog to push Sakkari very hard here.

As with Sorribes Tormo, you can put together the best bet package on Kostyuk by shopping across both the Outright Winner (200/1) and To Reach the Final (100/1) markets. Along with outsider odds of 25/1 to win the 2nd Quarter.

1st Set Tiebreaks…

These opening few rounds are busy, and I’ve got my eye on several matches, markets, situations and scenarios. Here are three men’s 1st round encounters today, where I reckon that we’ve got a good chance of landing at least one for a 1st Set Tiebreak, 7-6 score…

Jeremy Chardy v Matteo Berrettini

Karen Khachanov v Lloyd Harris

Kwon Soon-woo v Reilly Opelka

All three feature big servers, with the potential for strong ace tallies, and sets going the distance to 7-6.

  • For example, the one previous meeting between Berrettini and Chardy ended in a 7-6, 7-6 score-line. Harris’ last 3 hard-court matches have produced 3 Tiebreak sets. And 3 of Opelka’s last 4 matches have paid out on a 1st Set Tiebreak

The Oddschecker website is doing us no favours whatsoever here, failing to list the 1st Set Tiebreak market. I’ve manually shopped around, and listed below the pick of the prices that I found.

Other bookies offer this bet via a different route, for example 1st Set Total Games Over 12.5. Or cover the two 1st Set Correct Score options, 7-6 for each player.

Ones to Watch – US Open 2021

Women’s Outright Winner:

  • Sara Sorribes Tormo @ 300/1 Unibet, 250/1 Bet365, 888 Sport, BetVictor, Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Coral
  • Marta Kostyuk @ 200/1 Unibet, 170/1 MansionBet, NetBet, 10Bet, 150/1 Boylesports, Skybet, Betway, Ladbrokes, Coral, 125/1 Bet365, William Hill, 888 Sport, BetVictor


To Reach the Final:

  • Sara Sorribes Tormo @ 200/1 Bet365, VBet
  • Marta Kostyuk @ 100/1 Bet365, VBet

Alternatively: back Sorribes Tormo in the Outright Winner market at 300/1 or 250/1 Each Way. And Kostyuk at 200/1, 150/1, 170/1, or 125/1 Each Way.

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.

Women’s Quarter Winners:

  • 1st Quarter Winner – Sara Sorribes Tormo @ 35/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 33/1 Bet365 and in general
  • 2nd Quarter Winner – Marta Kostyuk @ 25/1 Boylesports, BetVictor, Betway, 22/1 Bet365, 888 Sport

Match Winner:

  • Sara Sorribes Tormo to beat Karolina Muchova @ 13/10 (2.3) Bet365, William Hill, 5/4 (2.25) Skybet, 6/5 (2.2) Betway, Boylesports
  • Marta Kostyuk to beat Maria Sakkari @ 11/5 (3.2) Boylesports, 2/1 (3.0) Bet365, Skybet, BetVictor, Betway, NetBet, 10Bet

Men’s matches – 1st Set Tiebreaks:

  • Jeremy Chardy v Matteo Berrettini @ 17/5 (4.4) Ladbrokes, Coral, 3/1 (4.0) BetVictor, Skybet, 11/4 (3.75) Betway
  • Karen Khachanov v Lloyd Harris @ 11/4 (3.75) BetVictor, Skybet, 23/10 (3.3) Betway, 9/4 (3.25) Ladbrokes, Coral
  • Kwon Soon-woo v Reilly Opelka @ 21/10 (3.1) BetVictor, 2/1 (3.0) Betway

Play starts from 4pm.

I’ll be back tomorrow by 12 noon with your Day 3 email.

You can contact me during the US Open at:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch