Tennis Betting Advice - August 2022
Play the big prices in Canada this week...
Monday 8th August 2022
Good morning. We have two massive tournaments to look forward to this week. Canada hosts its two annual ‘Masters’ 1000-grade events. With the ATP & WTA Tours, as is customary here, alternating between the two venues of Montreal and Toronto…
This year it’s the men’s turn to play in Montreal, with the women rocking up in Toronto.
Play the big prices in Canada…
The 2021 instalments of the ‘National Bank Open presented by Rogers’ (I preferred it when it was just called the Rogers Cup) produced a couple of massive-odds finalists. With Camila Giorgi a 100/1 winner in the WTA event in Montreal, beating 14/1 Karolina Pliskova in the final. While at ATP Toronto 2021, Daniil Medvedev took the honours as the 3/1 favourite – with 150/1 outsider Reilly Opelka the runner-up.
The event skipped a year in 2020 due to the pandemic. Prior to that, the women’s 2019 Toronto tournament delivered a 33/1 champion (Bianca Andreescu), and the men’s 2018 Toronto edition saw an 80/1 runner-up (Stefanos Tsitsipas).
With that big-price recent history spurring us on, I’m going aggressive as ever with my Canadian picks this week. Ones to Watch is all about backing appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices. Here are six names on my underdog list for this week…
MATTEO BERRETTINI @ 20/1, 18/1, 16/1, 14/1
Two Italians could represent the biggest challenge to 9/2 tournament second-favourite Carlos Alcaraz in this bottom half of the Montreal draw. While Ones to Watch youngster Jannik Sinner is a general 10/1 shot, Berrettini can be backed at twice that price to triumph here. Feeling hard done by after missing the French Open (injury) and then Wimbledon (coronavirus). Matteo has shown brilliant resilience and motivation to bounce back this summer. The world no.14, seeded 11th this week, has reached the final in each of his last three tournaments, winning two. That’s on top of a hard-court semi-final at the Australian Open back in January. Last year Berrettini made two quarter finals and a final (Wimbledon) in the Grand Slams, having pulled out of the Aussie Open through injury when through to the Last 16. A US Open semi-finalist in 2019, the big-hitting 26-year-old has shown in recent times that he has the game and appetite for the big tournaments.
CAMERON NORRIE @ 33/1, 28/1, 25/1
At a solid 25/1, Norrie catches the eye here. Cam has already landed us an Each Way profit on hard courts this season, backed at 33/1 in Acapulco (runner-up). We have him in the book at triple-figure odds as an early-bird pick for the US Open, too. Norrie is in his element when playing on hard courts in North America. Read my original piece about that from February, here.
HUBERT HURKACZ @ 33/1, 28/1, 25/1
We’re also on Hurkacz for the US Open, backed at 50/1 last week. Hubi stumbled on his return to hard courts last week, but keeping the faith has paid dividends with this level-headed Pole before. When he won his maiden ATP Masters 1000 title at the Miami Open last season, Hurkacz went into that tournament having lost four of his last six matches. I reckon a bounce-back is due soon, as the world no.10 looks to gain momentum ahead of the final Grand Slam of the year. I have no qualms about taking a player of Hubert’s quality at these prices.
AMANDA ANISIMOVA @ 33/1, 30/1, 28/1, 25/1
A similar case to Norrie and Hurkacz in the men’s here. Anisimova is a Ones to Watch regular, and we have the 20-year-old (soon to be 21) in the book at 33/1 for the US Open. The young American has long been tipped for great things, and she’s now making steady progress to fulfil that Junior potential. Across the WTA Tour and Grand Slams this season, Amanda has competed in 12 tournaments – and made the quarter finals or better in seven of them. That includes five quarters finals and a semi final in her last seven outings. That suggests to me that a big breakthrough could be on the cards very soon.
JESSICA PEGULA @ 50/1, 40/1, 35/1, 33/1
Pegula is another player who’s at their best on North American hard courts. The 28-year-old continues to be underrated – but that will change if she can get her hands on a prestigious trophy like this one. Jessica tends to come alive at this stage of the season. She made the semi finals last summer in the Montreal version of this tournament. In 2020 she came through qualifying to reach the WTA 1000 Cincinnati quarter finals as a big underdog. And in 2019, Pegula won a maiden WTA title at the hard-court event in Washington, DC. I was expecting to see Pegula at a shorter price here. She currently has a career-best ranking of no.7 in the world.
MARIE BOUZKOVA @ 40/1, 33/1, 25/1
Last but not least for today, if we want to follow an in-form player at a big price – then look no further than Bouzkova. The talented Czech has burst into form this summer, reaching the Wimbledon quarter finals on grass, then backing that breakthrough up with a maiden WTA title on clay in Prague. On hard courts, Marie has made a quarter final and a semi this season – and in 2019, she was a semi-finalist here at WTA Toronto. Bouzkova has a sneakily good serve, and hand skills and court craft that most players would kill for. If the 24-year-old can stay fit and ride the momentum, then she can make a mockery of her world no.47 ranking. Remember – that ranking would be significantly higher right now had any points been awarded at Wimbledon this year.
Bouzkova kicks off against Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina this afternoon (4pm+). It’s not uncommon for a first-time Grand Slam winner to suffer a comedown in the weeks that follow, and Rybakina showed signs of that when falling at the first hurdle in San Jose last week. The bookies make this match 50-50, with both women priced at around 10/11 (1.91) in the Match Winner market. If Bouzkova can get through that one, then another tournament run could follow…
Ones to Watch picks:
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
ATP Montreal – National Bank Open presented by Rogers
WTA Toronto – National Bank Open presented by Rogers
Note: not all bookies have a price up for Bouzkova as I write (10.30am Monday). I’ve included the ones I could find above.
Play starts from 4pm UK time. Bookies take down their Outright Winner markets during the day’s play.
Amazon Prime Video has full live coverage of both tournaments.
Enjoy the tennis…