Tennis Betting Advice - August 2022

US Open countdown: The case for a 100/1 upset...

Thursday 25th August 2022

The US Open draw takes place tonight, and play starts on Monday. Not long to go until the final Grand Slam event of the summer…

And with a startling recent history of big-odds results in the Major tournaments, there’s plenty of reason to be excited as we head to New York this Bank Holiday weekend.

On the weekly ATP & WTA Tours, we’ve already seen some massive prices in the tournament Outright Winner markets this month:

Eye-catching stat:

  • 4 of the 8 ATP & WTA tournaments played so far this August have produced a 100/1+ finalist

The Grand Slam 100/1 Club…

When you look at the list of recent Women’s Grand Slam finalists – with the most recent being last month’s Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina at 100/1. Then you can see why I focus on big-odds outsiders and youngsters with my Ones to Watch selections.

Look at this incredible stack of recent giant-odds outcomes and first-time winners in the women’s Slams…

Maiden winners – since 2015:

  • 15 of the last 27 Women’s Grand Slams have been won by players lifting a Major trophy for the first time

Since the Australian Open 2017, when Serena Williams last won a Major title:

  • The last 22 Women's Grand Slams have produced 15 different winners

Since the start of 2020:

  • 8 of the last 10 Women’s Grand Slams have produced at least one finalist at day-one odds of 33/1+. Including 7 players at 100/1+ 

4 out of 8 champions at 100/1+…

And here’s the real takeaway stat. This is just remarkable:

  • The last 8 women’s Grand Slam finals have featured 7 players at odds of 100/1+. With 4 of them winning the trophy

Look at that stat again. Take it in. Four of the last eight Grand Slams have produced a 100/1+ women’s champion. Wow. This sport really is wide open. This is why we go after such big odds….

Here’s that 100/1+ list:

French Open 2020 – Iga Swiatek 100/1 (winner)

French Open 2021 – Barbora Krejcikova 175/1 (winner)

French Open 2021- Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 150/1 (runner-up)

US Open 2021 – Emma Raducanu 100/1 (winner)

US Open 2021 – Leylah Fernandez 200/1+ (runner-up)

Australian Open 2022 – Danielle Collins 100/1 (runner-up)

Wimbledon 2022 – Elena Rybakina 100/1 (winner)

All seven of those players were first-time Major finalists. Incredible stuff. And the way the women’s game is right now, this carnage is showing no sign of slowing down…

  • We were on Swiatek at 100/1 in 2020. And Collins at 66/1 & 50/1 during the Australian Open this year. I’ll be going after the big prices again at the US Open next week. Your Day 1 email will be with you for 12 noon on Monday

If Tim Henman says it, then it must be true…

Let’s take a look at the men’s Major formbook now.

Going into the US Open 2022, which starts on Monday, Tim Henman says this will be the most ‘open’ men’s Grand Slam event that he can remember in the last 20 – 30 years. Bring it on…

The Big Four are no more: the rise of the Next Gen…

Next week’s US Open will once again be without the 41-year-old Roger Federer. The absence of the five-time winner is one of the key indicators that the decade-plus dominance of the men’s Big Four as we know it has come to an end…

Andy Murray, age 35 and with a metal hip, is still playing. But Andy hasn’t reached a Grand Slam final since Wimbledon 2016.

The other two are still seriously strong contenders when fit and able, and only a fool would say otherwise. Novak Djokovic won three of the four Grand Slam trophies on offer in 2021, and lifted the Wimbledon crown once again last month. Rafael Nadal has won the other two Majors so far in 2022, the Australian Open & French Open.

But the fact remains, all four of those guys are now age 35 or over. And these days, the top of the men’s world rankings doesn’t include any of those Big Four names in the Top 2.

No Novak – and all to play for…

Things get even more intriguing for next week’s big one in New York when we consider that no.2 and 2020 US Open runner-up Alexander Zverev is out injured. And nine-time finalist and three-time US Open champ Djokovic isn’t even allowed into the States to take part.

This combination of factors only stirs up the case for finding an outsider or two to follow at big prices over the next fortnight at Flushing Meadows, NYC…

Upsets happen more than you think…

I’ve gone through all of the odds and results from recent men’s Grand Slam finals.

While it might feel like the Big Four dominate everything (and in terms of actually lifting the trophies, they still pretty much do). As this list shows, it’s actually rare these days to see an all-Big Four final.

Next Gen names and outsiders are popping up frequently as Each Way finalists, making for some decent runner-up payouts…

Men’s Grand Slam finals since Wimbledon 2016:

Most recent first
NON-Big Four names in bold
(Odds in brackets)

Wimbledon 2022
Novak Djokovic (5/6) beat Nick Kyrgios (33/1)

French Open 2022
Rafael Nadal (4/1) beat Casper Ruud (22/1)

Australian Open 2022
Rafael Nadal (7/1) beat Daniil Medvedev (7/5)

US Open 2021
Daniil Medvedev (4/1) beat Novak Djokovic (8/11)

Wimbledon 2021
Novak Djokovic (4/5) beat Matteo Berrettini (12/1)

French Open 2021
Novak Djokovic (5/1) beat Stefanos Tsitsipas (5/1)

Australian Open 2021
Novak Djokovic (11/8) beat Daniil Medvedev (9/2)

French Open 2020
Rafael Nadal (11/10) beat Novak Djokovic (21/10)

US Open 2020
Dominic Thiem (9/1) beat Alexander Zverev (25/1)

Wimbledon 2020
[Didn’t play – coronavirus]

Australian Open 2020
Novak Djokovic (6/5) beat Dominic Thiem (22/1)

US Open 2019
Rafael Nadal (3/1) beat Daniil Medvedev (14/1)

Wimbledon 2019
Novak Djokovic (11/8) beat Roger Federer (10/3)

French Open 2019
Rafael Nadal (10/11) beat Dominic Thiem (7/1)

Australian Open 2019
Novak Djokovic (6/5) beat Rafael Nadal (9/1)

US Open 2018
Novak Djokovic (3/1) beat Juan-Martin Del Potro (16/1)

Wimbledon 2018
Novak Djokovic (11/2) beat Kevin Anderson (50/1)

French Open 2018
Rafael Nadal (1/2) beat Dominic Thiem (10/1)

Australian Open 2018
Roger Federer (2/1) beat Marin Cilic (33/1)

US Open 2017
Rafael Nadal (11/4) beat Kevin Anderson (150/1)

Wimbledon 2017
Roger Federer (11/4) beat Marin Cilic (28/1)

French Open 2017
Rafael Nadal (5/6) beat Stan Wawrinka (14/1)

Australian Open 2017
Roger Federer (22/1) beat Rafael Nadal (16/1)

US Open 2016
Stan Wawrinka (25/1) beat Novak Djokovic (Evens)

Wimbledon 2016
Andy Murray (3/1) beat Milos Raonic (14/1)

These findings get me excited for hunting out an underdog at the US Open next week:

  • Only 4 of the last 24 men’s Grand Slam finals have been all-Big Four encounters. The other 20 have featured a new name/ outsider/ Next Generation player – including 9 at odds of 20/1+
  • None of the last 6 men’s US Open finals have been an all-Big Four affair. The last one was Djokovic v Federer back in 2015

Play starts Monday…

If you like the sound of backing big odds outsiders in New York next week, then stay tuned…

I’ll be providing you with the full VIP Ones to Watch package, with Outright Winner picks, match bets, and DAILY emails and analysis for the US Open 2022. Plus, I’ll be contactable by email every day to answer any questions and help you out.

My email address is: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk

  • Your US Open Day 1 email will be with you for 12 noon on Monday

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch