Tennis Betting Advice - August 2023
Ones to Watch in Cincinnati - at 66/1 and 125/1...
Tuesday 15th August 2023
In yesterday's email we discussed the current trend for big-price winners and finalists in the men's Masters 1000 events…
This week's Cincinnati tournament has some compelling recent history for big odds, in both its ATP and WTA incarnations. Take a look at these prices:
Favourites not at home in Ohio?
It’s never easy to say exactly why a particular tournament has a tendency to produce shocks and surprises. But in the case of the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati, with the US Open just around the corner, it's almost like the star names have already got one eye on New York…
That’s not to say this joint men’s & women’s event doesn’t attract the top names. Far from it. The rankings points and prize money on offer here are both substantial.
But perhaps the likes of Iga Swiatek and Novak Djokovic are happy to use this competition to get in shape for the most serious business of the trip to the Big Apple. Not that they would admit it, if course. But it’s no secret that for the small handful of players who dine at the absolute top table of the sport, the Grand Slams are the truest way they count silverware success.
In three visits, Swiatek has yet to reach the quarter finals in Cincinnati. Djokovic has ‘only’ won this title twice, from 14 attempts. Which by his crazy-good standards, suggest he’s not usually at his peak level here in Ohio.
Players aren’t robots…
As outlined by yesterday’s Masters 1000 analysis. And with our recent 40/1 winners/ finalists fresh in mind this summer. Let’s get some appealing outsiders in the book at Each Way prices today…
Play starts in Cincinnati from 4pm, UK time. That’s if the weather plays ball. The day-one schedule was cut short by rain, with several 1st-round matches carried over to Tuesday’s programme.
Rain delays have been an issue lately – and not just at Wimbledon. Last week in Montreal, we can count ourselves a little unlucky that our 50/1 pick Belinda Bencic ran out of steam in the quarter finals…
Belinda rolled her ankle in her Last 16 win over Petra Kvitova. Because of the condensed schedule due to the weather conditions, Bencic then had to play her quarter-final that same day, with little recovery time. Our player was well beaten by Liudmila Samsonova – who then went on to reach the final, and was overcooked herself by then, with the Russian having to play her semi-final on the same day as the final. Handing a distinct advantage to the other waiting finalist, eventual champion Jessica Pegula.
As those weather and injury examples show, there’s a lot more to picking winners in this game than just looking at the formbook and rankings…
The flipside is, situations like that lend themselves to upsets…
Last week in Canada, none of the single-figure-odds, pre-tournament favourites even made it to the finals. The men’s event in Toronto saw 11/1 Jannik Sinner beat 50/1 Masters-final debutant Alex De Minaur. And the Montreal trophy went to 10/1 Pegula, beating 50/1 Samsonova.
City slickers…
Here are our outsiders to follow in Cincinnati…
These courts are built to play fast. It could pay to back players who like to play with pace – big servers, hard hitters, and sharp shooters…
In the women’s event, with the underdog prices very much in mind, that leads me to:
QINWEN ZHENG @ 80/1. The 20-year-old from China has a very good serve, and has the power game to mix it with the best. She’s still a work in progress, but has been threatening to put a big run together for some time. When it all clicks, we’d like to be on at big prices. It’s not out of the question at all that we could see a breakthrough WTA 1000 run here from Zheng, just as we saw from Samsonova – a player with a similar game style – just last week.
JENNIFER BRADY @ 66/1. Whisper it quietly, but the 28-year-old American has the potential to be the comeback story of the summer. Brady was on fire between autumn 2020 and January 2021, with two extremely impressive breakout performances on her favoured hard courts. Reaching the US Open semi finals, and then the Australian Open final. That Major potential was then cruelly scuppered when injury struck. Jenny missed the whole of the 2022 season.
Brady’s back now, though. And despite a couple of brutal three-set matches in Montreal last week, I reckon she could show up ready to fight again here. She’s shown her ability and level already during her long-awaited return to the tour, taking world no.4 Elena Rybakina to the full three sets in Montreal. If fitness holds, then Brady has the game to go very well here in Cincinnati. A former world no.13, the American currently resides at no.432...
In the men’s betting, let’s get behind a Ones to Watch alumni who’s had a tough time of it lately, but could be about to regain his form and confidence…
FELIX AUGER-ALIASSIME @ 50/1. After a painfully bleak clay and grass-court campaign, Felix will be happy to be back on the hard courts. Before his form fell off a cliff, coupled with illness. The young Canadian and recent Top 10 player had reminded us of his quality and potential with a quarter-final showing at the big ATP 1000 event in Indian Wells (March). A come-from-behind 1st-round win on Monday over the massive-serving Matteo Berrettini has to be a great boost for the 23-year-old’s confidence. I’ve seen him play very, very well on fast conditions before – indeed, all four of his trophies last season came on indoor hard courts. Here in Cincinnati, Felix has made the quarter finals on his last two visits. Perhaps he’s about to turn the corner and slide back into form…
BEN SHELTON @ 100/1+ is another very exciting youngster that we’ve been tracking. He looks every inch a Ones to Watch player to me: talented, hard-working, loves the game – and loves a battle. Ben doesn’t fear anyone, and his brave attacking play and infectious competitive spirit often gets the crowd on his side. A tough ask in the next round against last year’s Cincinnati finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas (who is 16/1 for the title) – but Ben will be up for this. Odds of 150/1, 125/1 & 100/1 are worth all the risk. The 20-year-old world no.40 is a rising star of American men’s tennis.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Ones to Watch picks:
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
WTA Cincinnati – Western & Southern Open
ATP Cincinnati – Western & Southern Open
Check also with Betfred – market not available at time of writing this morning.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Play starts at 4pm UK time, and bookies take down their Outright Winner markets during the matches. You can watch live on Amazon Prime Video, or via live streaming with bookies including Bet365 and Skybet.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone