Tennis Betting Advice - August 2025
Cincinnati picks at 100/1 and 300/1...
Thursday 7th August 2025
As I said to my colleague this morning, the good news is - teenager Victoria Mboko is through to the WTA Montreal final for us at 28/1 Each Way…
The bad news is - I was up ‘til gone 2am watching Mboko win that semi final!
I’m not complaining though. Saving a match point to win - as the underdog, too - gives a certain energy boost. Coffee on the table, computer fired-up, I’m back at it this morning. As we have the next tournament to shoot at, right away…
Mboko plays in the Montreal final v Naomi Osaka tonight (11pm, UK time). By which time, the next Masters 1000 event will already be underway, with the ATP & WTA Tours both heading down to the States for the Cincinnati Open. The first matches in Ohio are scheduled for 4pm, UK time…
The best starting point I can give you here is in last week’s ‘Cincinnati Shuffle’ article - read it here - where we looked at the eye-opening recent history of big-odds winners and finalists in Cincinnati.
We’ve got one youngster in action in a final at a nice price tonight. Let’s add some more Ones to Watch names to our Outright book today…
Fils full of potential at 100/1…
In the men’s Cincinnati Open, the big two of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are back on show for the first time since the Wimbledon final. Sinner won this title last year. Alcaraz made the final in 2023. The Italian world no.1 is 6/5 (2.2) and Evens (2.0). Spanish star Alcaraz is 2/1 (3.0). We won’t be getting involved with the favourites at those prices. Especially with the US Open the obvious main target for the top players, coming up very soon.
ARTHUR FILS was on our Ones to Watch 2024 list when still a teenager. Now, age 21 and currently ranked no.21 in the world, with three ATP titles to his name. The talented and powerful Frenchman is on the comeback from injury this summer, and a competitive three-set loss to another of our regular outsider picks, Jiri Lehecka, serves as a decent pipe-opener in the Toronto 3rd round last week.
Back in March, Fils made the quarter finals at both ‘Sunshine Double’ events (Indian Wells and Miami), showing once again his pedigree on hard courts. If he hadn’t been out injured recently, we probably wouldn’t be getting 100/1 and 80/1 for Arthur. Let's take it.
Three dangerous outsiders in the women’s…
In the women’s draw, it’s easy to put a question mark next to or strike a line through several of the names trending at shorter prices towards the top of the betting…
As ever, defending champ and world no.1 Aryna Sabalenka at 15/4 (4.75) has it all on her racket - but carries a lot of pressure, too.
Wimbledon winner Iga Swiatek is next up at 4/1. She was knocked out in straight sets in Montreal the other day by another Ones to Watch youngster, Clara Tauson; the Dane went off at 50/1 in Canada, but Tauson is priced at just 18/1 here. And that’s part of the problem for me with some of these Cincinnati quotes/ recent-form reactions, especially with the tournament coming literally on the back of Montreal.
For example, Montreal finalists Mboko and Osaka are yet to play that trophy match - and as it stands they’re both in the Cincinnati line-up. That might change, and in fact I’d be surprised if we don’t see a couple of high-profile withdrawals in Cincy in the days ahead. These price comparisons make my point: Osaka went off at 40/1 for Montreal before a ball was hit, but she’s just 14/1 for Cincinnati. Mboko was 200/1 (!) before the 1st round in Canada, and is chalked up at 25/1 at best for the Cincinnati Open.
World no.2 Coco Gauff is third-favourite in Ohio at 7/1. Coco was in very poor form in Montreal, serving bags of double faults. She was well-beaten by Mboko.
We’ll stick to the big odds, thank you very much…
The two favourites Sabalenka and Swiatek are in the top half of the draw. Dangerous floaters there at 100/1+ include Ones to Watch youngster Diana Shnaider, and the big-hitting but erratic (and often nervy) Ekaterina Alexandrova. Both are hard to make a case for on recent form - but you never know.
In the bottom half, anchored by the potentially vulnerable Gauff, we’ll play our outsider hand with three big prices…
On the young-guns front, 20-year-old LINDA NOSKOVA continues to knock on the door. We’ll take 40/1 for the talented Czech, who arrives here at a career-best ranking of no.23.
For triple figures, last year’s Australian Open semi-finalist DAYANA YASTREMSKA has been playing some good stuff again recently. As with many of the most dangerous underdogs in the women’s game, the 25-year-old Ukrainian plays the all-or-nothing, attacking tennis that can blow opponents away when on song. We’ll happily take a massive 350/1, 300/1 or 200/1 for the world no.35. There’s a high upside to odds like that, and remember this tournament is known for producing surprises on the eve of the US Open.
Another unheralded name on the big stage who could well outrun her 200/1 price here is McCARTNEY KESSLER. The 26-year-old American world no.32 won her maiden WTA title in Cleveland last summer, and has backed that up this year with two more Singles trophies. Kessler has just won the Montreal Doubles with Gauff. Landing in an open-looking part of the main Cincinnati draw, McCartney could spring a surprise or two in the early rounds here. And after that, as Mboko said in her interview on court last night: Anything can happen…
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
Outright Winner - Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Cincinnati Open - Men
Cincinnati Open - Women
Linda Noskova @ 40/1 Skybet and in general
Dayana Yastremska @ 350/1 Bet365, 300/1 William Hill, Betfred, Betway, 275/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 200/1 general
McCartney Kessler @ 200/1 Skybet and in general
Play starts from 4pm, UK time. Bookies take down Outright Winner markets during each day’s matches.
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P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me here: oliver@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone