Tennis Betting Advice - August 2025
US Open: Karolina can go far at 80/1...
Tuesday 26th August 2025
US Open - Outright Winner update…
I hope you had a good Bank Holiday weekend. If you got to see Alexandra Eala’s comeback win over Clara Tauson on Sunday night, then you will have witnessed one of the matches of the tournament - make that the year - with the Ones to Watch youngster fighting back from 1-5 down in the final set. Inspirational stuff. Let’s see if our 100/1 shot can build a run through the US Open field from here…
One thing’s for sure: Eala will have lots of support from the Filipino community in the New York crowd. With the US Open one of the most raucous events on the calendar for crowd participation, Eala can really draw on the fans to spur her on.
The new extended structure for the US Open this year means we’re on day three today (Tuesday), and still only in the 1st round. Lots of time for stories and opportunities to develop over the next 10 days and more…
There’s one further move I want to make in the Outright market right now though, and that’s KAROLINA MUCHOVA at 80/1…
The 29-year-old Czech has long been a Ones to Watch favourite. We’ve backed her several times over the years. Muchova featured heavily in this year’s pre-season report, in which I made this statement back in December:
Muchova likes it here…
Our two outsider selections so far in the women’s US Open 2025 - Eala and Samsonova - are both in the top half of the draw. World no.13 Karolina Muchova is in the bottom half, and in her section, no.6 Madison Keys has already been knocked out…
With that in mind, it’s interesting to me that the super-talented Czech player can still be backed at odds of 80/1, 66/1 and 50/1 today. The 11th seed started the event at 100/1 with a couple of firms, but more like 80/1 in general…
Muchova has made the semi finals here at the US Open, two years running. Last year, her starting price was 66/1 at best and 50/1 in general… in 2023, Karolina went off at 20/1…
As I’ve said before on many occasions, injuries have been Muchova’s biggest obstacle to sustained success. When she’s injury-free and on her game, she really is as good as anyone…
For example, Karolina has beaten the two current US Open favourites before: Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek. And the Czech - who made the French Open final in 2023- has reached the quarter finals or better at all four Grand Slams. Her big-time credentials and ability are there.
Nerves can always play a part, of course. In that respect, Muchova did well to overcome feeling “stressed” (as she put it) when beating a retirement-bound Venus Williams in front of a massive and emotionally-charged home crowd in the 1st round last night. Karolina will be glad to have got that one under her belt. On she goes to the next round…
We’ll take the biggest prices today, with the 2nd round starting from Wednesday afternoon. I’ll be back with another tournament update email before the weekend.
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Ones to Watch picks - US Open 2025:
See above for full details
Women’s - Outright Winner:
Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
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P.S
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Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone