Tennis Betting Advice - December 2022
My 33/1 outsider for the 'Wimbledon of Darts'...
Wednesday 14th December 2022
Good afternoon. I hope you’re doing okay in this cold weather. If it helps to paint pictures with words, then you need to know that I’ve got my new, warm fluffy slippers on as I write this. And two jumpers. And I’ve had a cup of coffee followed by a mug of tea. Needs must.
I said I’d be in touch intermittently before the start of the new tennis season in week one of January. And here I am. Today, I want to talk to you about darts…
From Wimbledon to the Ally Pally…
Tennis is of course my number one sport. My betting priority - as well as my passion.
But as I’ve said before when dabbling in the golf Majors, I like to keep an eye out for outsider prices and Ones to Watch-style Each Way opportunities on promising young or potentially underrated players, across a variety of sports.
Along with tennis and golf, another individual sport that I enjoy watching is darts. Especially when the big tournaments come along. And when it comes to the arrows, they simply don’t come any bigger than the PDC Championship…
There are a few similarities with the tennis Grand Slams here. With Wimbledon of course being the most famous of them all:
The iconic London venue - Wimbledon for the tennis, Alexandra Palace for the darts…
The annual sense of occasion - the hallowed turf and summer evenings of SW19, the raucous atmosphere and festive frivolities of the Ally Pally…
The history of great champions - eight-time Wimbledon winner Roger Federer, 16-time PDC champion Phil Taylor…
And when it comes to Each Way betting, another key similarity for me is the draw…
Firing arrows into the draw…
Tennis tournaments are divided into two halves, the draw is published, and you can use it to map out who might play who, and plot a potential path to the final.
It’s the same with the PDC Championship, with the draw-sheet allowing us to see who might reach the semi finals or final from their side of the schedule…
The PDC Championship starts tomorrow, 15th December, and runs to 3rd January. It’s all live on Sky Sports every day and night, and can provide some great winter-warmer entertainment around the annual Christmas TV specials…
I won’t run through the full PDC draw and betting list, as I’m really no expert here. But from looking at the draw in the same way that I approach a tennis tournament, there are a couple of players and prices that catch my eye, and these are my festive picks for the darts…
Here are some of the runners & riders…
Top seed Gerwyn Price is in the top half of the draw, and he’s 6/1 in general to win the trophy.
The bottom half of the draw has no.2 seed and reigning champion Peter Wright in the 3rd quarter, and no.3 seed and overall tournament favourite Michael van Gerwen in the 4th quarter. That means Wright and van Gerwen are the seeded semi-final pairing from this half of the field.
Other names of note include a mixture of long-established names and former champions, and newcomers and younger men on the up…
Including, in the top half:
Danny Noppert and Ryan Searle in the on-the-up category. And Raymond van Barneveld with veteran/ champ status. Michael Smith, who recently got a monkey off his back by winning a first televised Major title. And the ever-dangerous but hard-to-predict James Wade, who has been around a long time but never reached the final here.
And in the bottom half:
The likes of Jonny Clayton, Chris Dobey, Nathan Aspinall, and hotly-tipped Ally Pally debutant Josh Rock. Along with former PDC champions Rob Cross and Gary Anderson.
Lots of names and potential story-lines there.
This is where price comes in…
For example, Josh Rock was as big as 1,000/1 and 500/1 at the start of the year. And he was still 100/1+ by the end of the summer. The 21-year-old will go off this week at just 16/1. Knowing what we know about his price history, it’s fair to say the value has now gone. (Although I wouldn’t rule out a situation where, come New Year’s Day, I’m kicking myself and wishing I’d taken 16s… at the 2018 event, Rob Cross landed a similar year-long gamble for shrewd early-bird darts bettors.)
My 33/1 Each Way outsider…
Positioned in the 3rd quarter, Nathan Aspinall is one I like at 33/1 Each Way.
Especially with Skybet and Betfred making a welcome innovation by offering 1/4 odds for 1-4 places (eg. paying out Each Way on reaching the semi finals). As opposed to the standard 1/2 odds 1-2 places, with the payout for reaching the final, as we’re used to in tennis. I’d like to see some bookies offer the 4 places option for the tennis Grand Slams, too.
Aspinall burst onto the PDC Championship scene at the 2019 event, reaching the semi finals at huge odds. He backed that performance up with another run to the semis the year after.
Now age 31, Nathan showed some top-level form just last month, reaching the final at the Grand Slam of Darts - the event where Michael Smith lifted his first Major.
Smith has been runner-up at the Ally Pally in two of the last four PDC finals. He’s 15/2 (8.5) to go all the way this time.
In comparison, world no.10 Aspinall can be widely backed at 33/1, and 40/1 with Unibet if you’re happy with the standard Each Way terms of 1-2 places.
You could also construct the above bet by backing Aspinall at the standard Each Way terms of 1/2 odds 1-2 places, along with 8/1 for him to win the 3rd Quarter (eg. to reach the semi finals).
And with the aim being to keep my Christmas darts entertainment going as long as possible…
Enjoy the darts. Enjoy the Christmas run-up. And I’ll be back before the year is out with some big-odds tennis information for you, as we prepare for the fast-approaching 2023 season…
P.S
If you’d like to get in touch, you can reach me at:
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson