Tennis Betting Advice - December 2024

These 150/1 carrots keep us coming back...

Thursday 12th December 2024

Here at Ones to Watch,the tennis betting market that we are most interested in is the tournament outright winner

I record the prices of all the finalists, every week, all season, every year. The winners, and the Each Way runners-up.

The 2024 figures are in. They tell us nothing new… and that’s a GOOD thing…

The big-odds pattern that we’ve been following for years, is as strong and tempting as ever…

For example - this year, across the four Grand Slams, and the ATP and WTA Tours:

  • Once again, over 60% of tournament runners-up (63%) went off at odds of 10/1+. That’s happened in each of the 9 seasons I’ve been tracking the numbers
  • The same 9-year run goes for tournament finalists in general (settling at 55% at odds of 10/1+ this season)

And when we look deeper, and concentrate on the really BIG prices… the odds that you and I target here at Ones to Watch with our Each Way, underdog, long-shot picks. Then the tournament numbers are as tantalisingly encouraging as ever…

  • This year, on average, 75% of all tournaments produced a 20/1+ finalist
  • 47% of events saw a 33/1+ player in the final…
  • And 30% of the 122 tournaments completed this year turned up a 50/1 shot or bigger in the final…

At the very biggest end of the scale…

  • This year witnessed 11 players getting to a final at odds of 100/1+. That 9% rate is in line with the 10% figure that I’ve been following for getting on for a decade now…

We were on one of those 150/1 finalists this time, with Jasmine Paolini finishing runner-up at the French Open.

And we also got in the right ballpark with the likes of 150/1 Ones to Watch pick Karen Khachanov, who was injured in the Paris Masters semi final150/1 Frances Tiafoe at the US Open (semi final, beaten by our 66/1 pick Taylor Fritz)... and 100/1 Marta Kostyuk at Indian Wells (another semi final)...

Those 150/1 carrots keep us coming back for more…

We’ve already got two 100/1+ shots in the book for 2025 (read more here, and here). And once the new season begins in a couple of weeks, we’ll be on the hunt for plenty more…

On top of that, I’ve just started putting pen to paper with my annual player list for the new season. Youngsters and on-the-up names. All will be revealed in your new Ones to Watch in 2025 Report, which will be landing in your inbox before Christmas.

Lots to look forward to in 2025. In the meantime, enjoy the festive season…

P.S
In case you missed it, I went off-menu last week and sent you some darts info. Find out why - and who I’m picking for the PDC World Championship at 33/1 - here. The action starts this Sunday at Alexandra Palace, live on Sky Sports.

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch