Tennis Betting Advice - February 2018

Another Tiebreak on the cards today - 5pm start...

Friday 9th February 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Total Games winner...
  • Paire in all-French quarter final tonight…
  • Bet for today – another Tiebreak on the cards...

Total Games winner...

We made it two out of two for match bets this week, with Over 22.5 Games between Victor Estrella Burgos and Gerald Melzer yesterday.

The formbook showed that both men had a habit of playing out long matches in Quito, and this one was another battle with Melzer coming from behind to end Victor’s 16-match winning streak at the tournament, 4-6, 6-1, 6-4 (Total Games = 27).

Paire in all-French quarter final tonight…

As usual, we saw a little bit of everything from ‘flamboyant Frenchman’ Benoit Paire last night: Aces, Double Faults, great shots, silly shots, gesticulations and nonchalance – he even wears his shirt collar up like Eric Cantona.

Clearly keen to put on a show in front of the French fans in Montpellier, Paire was a little unprofessional in trying (and failing) a trick shot on break point – and it almost cost him the second set.

Credit where it’s due though and our 25/1 and 20/1 Each Way pick was the better player. Paire redeemed himself in that second set by saving two set points and breaking back when John Millman was serving to level the match, before closing out the win in a tiebreak – ultimately coming through in straight sets with a 6-4, 7-6 victory.

Paire is through to the quarter finals and is now around 10/1 for the trophy. He faces fellow Frenchman Lucas Pouille this evening (7.30pm+).

Pouille is the match favourite but both these players can be erratic and I’d rather be on the outsider at a good price – Paire was 25/1 on day one of this tournament, whereas Pouille was just 6/1. And as we noted in our preview on Sunday night, last time we backed Pouille we had 25/1 on him.

Value is on our side, which is always good, and while the head-to-head is 2-1 to Pouille, our man Paire did win their only previous indoor hard court meeting in France.

I have another bet for us today in a match scheduled for 5pm UK time…

Another Tiebreak on the cards...

Roberto Carballes Baena v Nicolas Jarry

ATP Quito – Ecuador Open
Match scheduled: 5pm+

Rankings: Carballes Baena #107, Jarry #95
Head-to-Head: 1-1

We got a good price in the Tiebreak in the Match market earlier this week, and this match has the credentials for another one...

These two players are evenly matched in the rankings, both around the Top 100 – and the head-to-head is level at one win each.

The 6’6” Jarry is particularly strong on serve and as we’ve noted before, a tall big server can often end up playing a lot of Tiebreak (7-6) sets. That’s certainly the case with the young Chilean – each of his last eight tour matches have featured at least one Tiebreak set.

That’s a very strong form-line and one that has continued this week. Jarry has needed the full three sets to win both his matches, with the scores 6-4, 6-7, 6-3 and 6-7, 6-2, 7-6.

He’s only lost serve once in total across those two matches, which is impressive at this level.

Carballes Baena can’t quite match that standard of serving and Tiebreak form, but nevertheless he looks a good match-up here – four of his last six matches have seen at least one Tiebreak set, including both matches so far this week in Quito.

The 24-year-old Spaniard has lost his serve a total of three times in two matches so far, which is pretty good going on clay.

These two haven’t played each other since 2014 when they were both youngsters, but it’s worth noting that both matches featured a tight set – 7-5 in one and 7-6 in the other.

The bookies make the Match Winner betting 50-50 here and with a potentially close match in store, the Tiebreak prices stand out more than the Total Games options for me.

Odds of Evens+ (2.00+) for Jarry to extend his eight-match ‘Tiebreak’ streak look good value to me.

ATP Quito – Ecuador Open

Roberto Carballes Baena v Nicolas Jarry

BET: Tiebreak in the Match – Yes @ 5/4
BOOKIES: 5/4 (2.25) Skybet, 11/10 (2.10) Bet365, 21/20 (2.05) SportingBet, Bwin, Evens (2.00) Ladbrokes, Coral
STAKE: 1 pt
Latest odds here

I’ll be on back on Sunday night with a first look at next week’s Outright Winner markets.

Enjoy the tennis...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch