Tennis Betting Advice - February 2018

Back the youngsters in Delray Beach tonight...

Friday 23rd February 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Back the youngsters in Delray Beach tonight...
  • Reilly Opelka v Peter Gojowczyk...
  • Denis Shapovalov v Taylor Fritz...

There are five tournaments taking place this week and plenty of matches to look at. Two more catch my eye today – see below.

Ivashka was winning...

Things haven’t been going our way in recent days with injuries going against us in a variety of situations.

Last night Stan Wawrinka threw in the towel when a set down to our underdog pick Ilya Ivashka...

World No.193 Ivashka got the biggest win of his career, albeit with an asterisk next to it for Wawrinka’s retirement.

With the bookies I quote for Match Winner picks, the ‘Bet Void’ rule means all stakes are returned. That may have cost us a winning payout this time, but on other occasions the Bet Void rule will get us our money back.

Yesterday’s other underdog pick Elena Vesnina had to have treatment for her back during her match. Vesnina still managed to get 5-3 ahead in the 1st set tiebreak (just 2 points from winning the set), but Daria Kasatkina fought back to take it and that proved decisive. Kasatkina went on to win 7-6, 6-1.

Onwards and upwards and today we take our first visit of the week to Delray Beach, Florida...

Reilly’s on a roll...

Reilly Opelka v Peter Gojowczyk

ATP Delray Beach – Delray Beach Open

Match scheduled: 7.30pm+

Rankings: Opelka #228, Gojowczyk #64
Head-to-Head: Gojowczyk 2-0 (2017)

There are several youngsters – or #NextGen players, as the ATP calls them – doing well at Delray Beach this week...

The 20-year-old American Reilly Opelka is one of them. He’s on a breakthrough run that has seen him take out two much bigger names than him in American tennis, Jack Sock and Ryan Harrison.

During his run to the quarter finals the 6’11” Opelka has served a massive 32 Aces, hitting 15+ in each match. Gojowczyk has hit 16 in total.

Aces won’t win a match on their own – but they can help decide it.

Opelka’s 28-year-old German opponent Gojowczyk has won both of their previous meetings, both on hard courts in the USA last year – so it’s understandable that the higher-ranked player is the favourite here. However, Opelka has momentum and looks a good underdog price to reach what would be a second ATP semi final of his career in the States.

Both men have been serving great, winning 77%+ of 1st Serve Points. This could be a tight one and the bookies are as short as 2/5 (1.40) for there to be a Tiebreak (7-6) set in the match. Opelka is the Match Winner value here.

ATP Delray Beach – Delray Beach Open

BET: Reilly Opelka to beat Peter Gojowczyk @ 6/4

BOOKIES: 6/4 (2.50) BetVictor, William Hill, Bet365, Boylesports, Betway
STAKE: 1 pt
Latest odds here

Shapovalov’s left hand to do damage...

Denis Shapovalov v Taylor Fritz

ATP Delray Beach – Delray Beach Open

Match scheduled: 11pm+

Rankings: Shapovalov #46, Fritz #85
Head-to-Head: n/a

Two more ‘Next Gen’ players here – and it’s the younger of the two that I like...

Both players have featured on our Ones to Watch lists – Fritz in 2017, Shapovalov for this year – and Shapovalov is the classier player for me, and the one most likely to go on to great things.

The 18-year-old Canadian is winning plenty of fans with his exciting brand of tennis, and has also shown he can knuckle down and win serving battles this week – taking out the 6’10” serve machine Ivo Karlovic in the 1st Round, before hitting 13 Aces of his own against Jared Donaldson.

Fritz is 20 years old and stands 6’4” tall. The American will also be a serving test for Denis today, but Fritz has given up 8 break points in both of his matches so far, and with Shapovalov’s shot-making I’d back him to convert a few of those if presented with the chance.

A key stat for me here is that Fritz has a ‘won 1 lost 8’ career record v left-handers at ATP Tour & Grand Slam level. Shapovalov’s lethal lefty forehand could prove the difference this evening.

ATP Delray Beach – Delray Beach Open

BET: Denis Shapovalov to beat Taylor Fritz @ 3/4

BOOKIES: 3/4 (1.75) BetVictor, 8/11 (1.73) William Hill, Bet365, Boylesports, Betway
STAKE: 1 pt
Latest odds here

I’ll be back on Sunday night, with our early look at the Outright Winner opportunities and Each Way prices for next week’s four tournaments.

Enjoy the tennis...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch