Tennis Betting Advice - February 2018

Two underdogs for today - play starts 4.30pm...

Thursday 22nd February 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Match points missed…
  • Vesnina value today…
  • Big chance for Ivashka…

Match points missed…

It’s not been our week so far.

Nicolas Jarry beat the match favourite Albert Ramos-Vinolas last night, 7-5, 6-3 – a score-line that fell two games short of the ‘Over 22.5’ Total Games line that we went for (Total Games result = 21).

The bitterest pill to swallow was our Outright Winner pick though, with 12/1 Johanna Konta going out in three sets to Daria Kasatkina…

Konta was the 2/5 (1.40) pre-match favourite and looked well on course for the win when a set and a break up. She then had two match points in the second set tiebreak but didn’t take either of them. After that, Kasatkina pushed ahead in the final set to eventually win 4-6, 7-6, 6-2 in a match that lasted just over three hours.

So far we’re four from six on match picks since the Australian Open, so we’re doing okay in that department. We’re waiting for our first Outright Winner or Each Way payout though – and that’s when the big returns come in that will put us in front. It’ll come.

On to today’s tennis and two underdogs catch my eye…

Vesnina value today…

Daria Kasatkina v Elena Vesnina

WTA Dubai – Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
Match scheduled: 4.30pm+

Rankings: Kasatkina #24, Vesnina #23
Head-to-Head: Vesnina 1-0 (2017)

This is neck-and-neck on the rankings and while it’s fair that the younger and more highly-rated Kasatkina is the favourite on paper, the match situation could give an edge to Vesnina here…

This is an all-Russia encounter and both players will be aware of each other’s game. Vesnina won their only previous meeting (on clay) last year. Hard court is her preferred surface and that’s what she gets here in Dubai.

Vesnina claimed a big win in the last round when knocking out Jelena Ostapenko 6-1, 7-6 – and has got two straight sets, 2-0 wins to her name so far this week.

Kasatkina was involved in that three-hour epic v Konta last night, a match that went on until midnight local time. Those efforts may take their toll and she has another evening match to contend with today.

All told, Vesnina looks the value as the match underdog here.

WTA Dubai – Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships

BET: Elena Vesnina to beat Daria Kasatkina @ 7/4
BOOKIES: 7/4 (2.75) Bet365, 8/5 (2.60) William Hill, BetVictor, Betway, Boylesports
STAKE: 1 pt
Latest odds here

Big chance for Ivashka…

Ilya Ivashka v Stan Wawrinka

ATP Marseille – Open 13 Provence
Match scheduled: 7.30pm+

Rankings: Ivashka #193, Wawrinka #13
Head-to-Head: n/a

The rankings don’t tell the story for this one as Wawrinka is currently struggling to regain form after injury kept him out at the end of last season…

Stan went out of the Aussie Open quite meekly in the end (although credit to him for playing out his match and not retiring, I suppose). Coming in to this week Wawrinka has suffered back-to-back defeats at indoor hard court events to players ranked outside the Top 100.

Ilya Ivashka looks a dangerous opponent for the big name player today…

The 23-year-old from Belarus is well thought of and is capable of going much higher in the rankings and making more of a mark on the main ATP Tour than he has of yet. A towering 6’5”, he can be expected to lash the ball around today and if Ivashka has a strong serving day then Wawrinka may end up cutting a despondent figure once again.

This one might be ‘on Stan’s racket,’ as they say. In other words, Stan should win in normal circumstances, but he’s not been at his best at all so far this season. And if he has another bad day… confidence is low… unforced errors come… or he’s just not quite at full match fitness level – then he could be in trouble.

Ivashka has has won 6 out of 8 matches indoors so far in 2018 – this is obviously a big step up but he’ll be aware of the chance to claim a massive scalp here.

ATP Marseille – Open 13 Provence

BET: Ilya Ivashka to beat Stan Wawrinka @ 7/4
BOOKIES: 7/4 (2.75) Betway, 17/10 (2.70) Boylesports, 13/8 (2.63) Bet365, 8/5 (2.60) William Hill, Stan James, BetVictor
STAKE: 1 pt
Latest odds here

I’ll be back tomorrow with an update ahead of the weekend.

Enjoy the tennis...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch