Tennis Betting Advice - February 2018

12/1 pick for Dubai - and Sakkari v Stosur at 10am…

Sunday 18th February 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Injury hits…
  • Back 12/1 Konta in Dubai…
  • Sakkari v Stosur at 10am…

Injury hits…

We had one match bet and one winner last week, thanks to Ivo Karlovic beating Jared Donaldson.

Apart from that it was a bit of a frustrating week with 12/1 pick Kyle Edmund withdrawing from the ATP Buenos Aires event the day before his first match (throat infection). Followed a few days later by our 10/1 pick Simona Halep pulling out of WTA Doha without attempting to play her semi final match (right foot injury).

We were one match win away from an Each Way payout on Halep there. I believe we’re hunting in the right areas and as I said last week, when the Outright Winner bets land, the wait is always worth it.

Back 12/1 Konta in Dubai…

Onto a new week then and ‘frantic February’ continues with no fewer than five tournaments across the Men’s and Women’s tours:

  • ATP Marseille – indoor hard
  • ATP Delray Beach – hard
  • ATP Rio de Janeiro – clay
  • WTA Dubai – hard
  • WTA Budapest – indoor hard

The Dubai tournament is the earliest starter (10am Monday, UK time) and as such fits the bill for our Sunday night focus this week…

Elina Svitolina is the reigning champ here – she was priced at 10/1 last year and goes off as a general 7/1 shot this time.

She’s in the top half of the draw which is loaded with big names – Angelique Kerber, Petra Kvitova and Karolina Pliskova are all in Svitolina’s half and all at similar single-figure prices.

The bottom half looks the place to be and I like Johanna Konta at 12/1

Since her semi final run at Wimbledon last summer Konta hasn’t done better than a quarter final (twice), but there were signs last week in Doha that she was getting some form back. A 2-1 defeat to Kerber is nothing to worry about; if anything it’s encouraging to see World No.11 Konta battling it out over three sets with an established Top 10 opponent.

Jelena Ostapenko (22/1) is the top seed in Konta’s quarter of the draw, but has been well-beaten, 2-0 in her last two matches and hasn’t looked at her best so far in the new season (with an injury niggle bothering her at the Australian Open). Konta won their only previous meeting.

Garbine Muguruza (6/1) made the Doha final last week, and the powerful Spaniard is the big name in the bottom quarter and a potential semi final opponent for Konta. Those two haven’t met since 2015 but the Brit leads the head-to-head 2-1. All three meetings have gone the distance to three sets.

Konta goes into this event the fresher of the two in terms of recent court time, and at twice the price of Muguruza she looks the value here.

Jo starts her campaign at 4pm+ on Monday as the favourite to beat Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. The pair have never played before but the Russian is on a three-match losing streak.

WTA Dubai – Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships

Outright Winner

BET: Johanna Konta @ 12/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 12/1 (13.00) Skybet, Boylesports, 10Bet, NetBet, 11/1 (12.00) Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill
STAKE: 1 pt – Each Way
Latest odds here

  • Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

Sakkari to beat Stosur…

Sam Stosur v Maria Sakkari

WTA Dubai – Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships – Qualifying   
Match scheduled: 10am

Rankings: Stosur #40, Sakkari #60
Head-to-Head: n/a

We won’t often get involved in the Qualifying rounds of a tournament but the price looks good for this one…

This is the final round of Dubai qualifying meaning there’s a place in the main draw 1st Round for the winners of Monday’s four final qualifiers.

The rankings don’t tell the whole story here. My gist would be: Stosur is 33 years of age and on the way down the tennis ladder; Sakkari is 22 and on the way up…

Stosur is a veteran on the tour and for a former Grand Slam winner, playing in the qualifiers is hardly the glamourous tennis superstar life. Throughout her career she’s always been hit or miss – big power, but often lacking the control or mental edge.

Sakkari is name I’ve mentioned before – the Greek youngster first caught my eye when giving Venus Williams a scare at Wimbledon 2016. She’s beaten two tricky opponents already in qualifying and from what I’ve seen of her Sakkari has the power to live with Stosur and take the game to her.

For me the value is with the youngster as the underdog here. Play starts 10am.

WTA Dubai – Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships – Qualifying

BET: Maria Sakkari to beat Sam Stosur @ 6/5
BOOKIES: 6/5 (2.20) William Hill, Bet365, BetVictor, Stan James, Betway, Boylesports
STAKE: 1 pt
Latest odds here

I’ll be back on Tuesday more on this week’s tournaments & match opportunities…

Enjoy the tennis...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch