Tennis Betting Advice - February 2019
This week’s picks – including 25/1 and 66/1 shots…
Sunday 3rd February 2019
In your Ones to Watch email today:
It’s never going to be a bad week when we get two of our picks playing each other in a final. But I’m always hungry for more. And that being the case, I was a little disappointed to see Ajla Tomljanovic fail to serve out the WTA Hua Hin final. On two occasions, our 14/1 Each Way pre-tournament pick served for the trophy, from 5-2 up in the deciding set.
As it turned out, our 4/1 pick Dayana Yamstremska (backed Win Only ahead of the quarter finals) showed the greater mental strength. Fighting back to win the decider on a tiebreak, and ensure we finished the week with a bit of profit.
Spare a thought for Tomljanovic. The 25-year-old has now played in four WTA finals in her career, and lost them all. In three of them, she’s missed out in the third & final set.
On the other hand, One to Watch in 2019 Yastremska now has two WTA titles to her name – and she’s still only 18 years of age.
At 5-2 ahead in that final set, Yastremska took a medical timeout – her first of the match. Tomljanovic didn’t look impressed. Mind games? Maybe. Either way, the break in play got to Tomljanovic. The young gun reeled her in from there, with some fearless play.
Frantic February starts now…
The men are back in action this week, with the first ATP tournaments since the Australian Open. The ATP Tour are billing this as ‘Frantic February’ with a total of 12 events on the bill this month. There are four women’s (WTA) tournaments still to come, too. View the calendar here.
The women are on international Fed Cup duty this week. The men are in action as of Monday afternoon with three tournaments taking place…
Ones to Watch this week – at 18/1, 22/1, 25/1 and 66/1…
We’ll start our picks & previews with the two indoor hard court events. I’ve mentioned before that men’s tournaments in France are often dominated by the ‘home’ players. ATP Montpellier is a case in point. Five of the last six finalists have been Frenchmen. Six of the last eight finals have been won by a French player.
In the top half of the draw, we’ll let the short-price big names fight out it out among themselves for French support. Only one of joint-favourite & reigning champion Lucas Pouille (5/1), Gilles Simon (12/1), Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (8/1) and Jeremy Chardy (25/1) can make it to the final.
In the bottom half, we’ll take the improving Pierre-Hugues Herbert at 25/1. The 27-year-old Frenchman is up to a career-high of No.44 in the world. He was a match underdog winner for us during the Aussie Open. And reached the ATP Shenzhen final on hard courts towards the end of last season. Herbert is strong on serve and looks to have a decent run through to the quarter final stage here. He looks underrated to me.
In Bulgaria, ATP Sofia could be ripe for another big price. Last year the final saw 250/1 Mirza Basic beat 50/1 Marius Copil. This time those two go off at a top price 80/1 and 66/1 respectively…
Marius Copil is the one I’ve got my eye on – and it would have been the case even without last year’s runner-up tag at this venue by his name. The hard-hitting Romanian has a fierce serve and is at his best with indoor hard court conditions. Ranked No.56, Copil is another player currently sitting in a career-best position. He’s been around for a while (age 28), but made the breakthrough last season with his first two ATP finals – finishing runner-up here in Sofia at 50/1, then at 100/1 (lost to Roger Federer) at ATP Basel in October. Copil has a tough first match here v Stan Wawrinka. But if he can serve strongly and get through that, then this big 66/1 price will drop rapidly.
The 66/1 Romanian certainly looks the value in the top half of the draw, where man of the moment Roberta Bautista-Agut is just 5/1, and one of our Ones to Watch in 2019 youngsters Karen Khachanov is also in with the favourites at 5/1.
In the bottom half of the Sofia draw, two more name from our 2019 list are at short prices, with Daniil Medvedev 5/1 and Australian Open semi finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas 9/2 (5.50) at best…
The man to disrupt that section could be Nikoloz Basilashvili at 22/1. The Georgian is another improving player who absolutely lashes the ball. He’s on the edge of the Top 20 now, and gave Tsitsipas a great match in Melbourne last month. Last year Basilashvili won the first two ATP titles of his career. Aged 26, he can go on and win more – and he’s a threat in any ATP draw right now.
Last but not least, down in South America we have the inaugural ATP Cordoba event. This is the first clay court tournament of the year, and replaces ATP Quito where we had a nice winner on Victor Estrella-Burgos a couple of years back…
The player for us here is another of our 2019 youngsters, Nicolas Jarry. The 23-year-old won both his Singles matches for Chile in the Davis Cup last week. As I said in that 2019 report, clay is his first-choice surface. He made a first ATP final in Sao Paulo last February (16/1, runner-up). I’m tipping Jarry to win a first title this season – and this week’s event, location and surface looks good for him. He’s in the opposite side of the draw to tournament favourites Fabio Fognini (7/2) and Argentinean home hope Diego Schwartzman (4/1). Odds of 18/1 make Jarry an appealing Each Way pick here.
This week’s Ones to Watch Outright Winner picks are:
ATP Montpellier – Open Sud de France
BET: Pierre-Hugues Herbert @ 25/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 25/1 (26.00) Skybet, 20/1 (21.00) Coral, Ladbrokes, Boylesports
ATP Sofia – Sofia Open
BET: Marius Copil @ 66/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 66/1 (67.00) Skybet, Bet365, Boylesports, 64/1 (65.00) NetBet, 10Bet
BET: Nikoloz Basilashvili @ 22/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 22/1 (23.00) Skybet, 16/1 (17.00) Bet365, William Hill
ATP Cordoba – Cordoba Open
BET: Nicolas Jarry @ 18/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 18/1 (19.00) Skybet, Bet365, NetBet, 10Bet, 16/1 (17.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
Play starts on Monday afternoon. I’ll be back throughout the week with an update on this week’s tournaments, and a look at the match schedules & prices, too…
Enjoy the tennis…