Tennis Betting Advice - February 2019
This week’s picks – including a 100/1 outsider…
Sunday 17th February 2019
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Big-price finalists keep on coming…
We didn’t manage to make it three weeks in a row with an Each Way shot in a final, but we were close…
Our 9/1 pick Sam Querrey made it to the New York semi finals, only to miss out in a narrow 2-1 defeat to an inspired performance from a young Qualifier, Brayden Schnur (200/1).
In Doha our 16/1 pick Kiki Bertens was never quite at the races, but she fought hard, and it took the eventual tournament winner (and almost namesake) Elise Mertens (33/1) to beat her.
Two players priced at 16/1, one at 14/1 and one at 18/1 also made finals last week. Along with those 33/1 and 200/1 shots, that’s six of eight finalists that went off at double-figure pre-tournament prices. I’ll say it again: these are the prices we go for…
Ones to Watch this week – at 33/1, 40/1 and 100/1…
There are five tournaments on this week’s schedule.
The ATP Tour has the men in action at Delray Beach, Florida on hard courts. In Rio de Janeiro on clay. And indoors in Marseille…
The ATP Marseille draw is the one where I feel I’ve got the strongest read on things. We got a 25/1 Each Way pick into the Montpellier final on indoor hard courts the other week. This week’s French event looks ripe for an underdog selection, too…
Three of the last six Marseille winners have been Frenchman. Six of the last 10 finalists have been French, including three of the last four. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is the 6/1 (7.00) favourite. He took the Montpellier title earlier this month, and won Marseille on his last appearance in 2017. However, that’s not a particularly appealing price this week, especially with Tsonga playing so much tennis recently and 100% fitness being hard for him to maintain.
Of the other Frenchmen in the draw, Gilles Simon is noteworthy as another former Marseille winner – most recently in 2015. However he’s entering veteran territory on the tour now, and rather than chance Simon at 16/1, Damir Dzumhur stands out in that part of the draw at a much bigger 40/1…
Dzumhur appeared on our Ones to Watch list for 2018. The Bosnian made the quarter finals at Marseille last year before injury struck, forcing him to retire one set into the match. Two of his three career ATP titles have come indoors, and overall three of his four final appearances have been on hard courts. There’s a promising hint of form in last week’s showing indoors in Rotterdam, where the 26-year-old beat Australian Open semi-finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas and made the quarters – only losing out to eventual tournament winner Gael Monfils.
This week the women are in Dubai (hard courts) and Budapest (indoor hard courts). I like a big price for an exciting youngster in both…
Teenager Anastasia Potapova is 33/1 for the WTA Budapest trophy. As I noted in our pre-season Ones to Watch in 2019 report, the 17-year-old has reached two finals already, finishing runner-up in Moscow 2018 on clay (50/1) and then in Tashkent on hard courts (16/1). She’ll have her sights on a first title win this year.
Potapova has had a winning match win-loss record indoors for each season on the circuit so far. Including an indoor tournament win at ITF level in Russia last year, where she beat a couple of quality players including Tashkent champion Margarita Gasparyan. This Budapest field is the weakest of the week in terms of rankings, and the young World No.87 is capable of taking out anyone here.
The WTA Dubai draw contains plenty of the big guns, with this Premier 5 event being one of the more prestigious (and wealthy) stop-offs on the tour. Top 10 players Naomi Osaka, Petra Kvitova, Simona Halep, Karolina Pliskova and Angelique Kerber are all single-figure prices in the Outright Winner market. Women’s events always produce a few shocks & surprises, though…
Sofia Kenin looks massive at rank outsider odds of 100/1. The 20-year-old American hits the ball big, and plays with an appealing ‘I-belong-on-the-big-stage’ mentality. That no-fear attitude and ball-striking power can see her pull off a few match upsets this season and moving forward.
Kenin won the WTA Hobart title (18/1) in January – the first of her career – blasting through five straight matches without losing a set. She should be playing with more confidence than ever right now. If Kenin does well this week, we won’t see eye-catching triple-figure prices for her on the weekly tour again…
Today’s Ones to Watch Outright Winner picks are:
ATP Marseille – Open 13 Provence
BET: Damir Dzumhur @ 40/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 40/1 (41.00) William Hill, 33/1 (34.00) Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, NetBet, 10Bet
Latest ATP Marseille odds here >>
WTA Budapest – Hungarian Ladies’ Open
BET: Anastasia Potapova @ 33/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 33/1 (34.00) Bet365, 31/1 (32.00) NetBet, 10Bet
Latest WTA Budapest odds here >>
WTA Dubai – Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
BET: Sofia Kenin @ 100/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 100/1 (101.00) Bet365, William Hill, NetBet, 10Bet
Other bookies will have their Outright Winner markets up throughout this evening.
Play starts on Monday morning (from 7am UK time in Dubai).
I’ll be back in touch throughout the week. Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson