Tennis Betting Advice - February 2020

Australian Open: Men’s Final – Thiem v Djokovic...

Saturday 1st February 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Play starts 8.30am…
  • Day 14…
  • Men’s Final…

Good afternoon and welcome to day 14 of our Australian Open coverage.

Kenin wins at 50/1...

I’m on record as saying we’re looking to land a 100/1 winner this season.

A 50/1 success at the first Grand Slam of the year is a pretty good marker.

The big ones don’t come along very often.

But when they do, it’s all worth it.

To repeat our Ones to Watch ‘plan of attack’ from day one:

We go after appealing outsiders at attractive odds.

At this tournament, 50/1 Sofia Kenin was one of them.

Mental toughness...

The 21-year-old American came out a deserved winner in the women’s final. Kenin beat former World No.1, Garbine Muguruza, 4-6, 6-2, 6-2.

During her seven-match streak to the trophy, ‘Sonya’ only lost two sets - against Coco Gauff in the 4th round, then Muguruza in the final. Those were both the first set of the match…

Kenin’s trademark fighting spirit was in full display on both occasions. With the tenacious right-hander showing excellent mental strength to ‘reset’ and go about grabbing the match by the scruff of the neck.

Sonya’s mental toughness came to the fore again in the deciding set of the tournament. With the scores level at 2-2, Kenin found herself 0-40 down on her own serve...

I’m not the biggest fan of Chris Bradnam in the TV commentary box. But to be fair to Chris, he called that moment spot on: whoever wins this game, wins the trophy...

Kenin saved all three break points to hold for a 3-2 lead. After that, Muguruza didn’t win another game in the match. At 5-2, the Spaniard served three double faults on her own serve, including one on match point.

Well done to Sofia Kenin. It was a brilliant performance, all round - and an absorbing and entertaining final, too.

Sonya becomes the new American No.1, and moves up to a new career high of No.7 in the world.

Thiem v Djokovic...

We’ve also got a strong interest in the men’s final (Sunday 8.30am)...

Our 22/1 Each Way pick Dominic Thiem is another hard-working player looking to win their first Grand Slam title.

After back-to-back French Open final defeats to Rafael Nadal in the last two years, Dominic is looking to make it third time lucky in a Major final.

The 26-year-old Austrian takes on the man who has been the best in the business in Melbourne for the last decade or so, World No.2 Novak Djokovic.

Since arriving on the Grand Slam scene in 2008, the Serbian has won the Australian Open title seven times. A win here would take Novak back to No.1 in the world.

Thiem took out current No.1 Rafa Nadal in the quarter finals. He’s never beaten Djokovic at a Grand Slam away from the Roland Garros clay courts. But at the ATP Finals in London last November, Thiem did beat Novak on a similar hard court playing surface to this one. The difference here, of course, is that this is a Grand Slam final, and best of five sets.

The career head-to-head is 7-4 to Djokovic, and 3-1 on hard courts.

As we saw against Nadal, and then v Alexander Zverev in the semi final, Dominic has the shots, fitness and big-match mentality to deliver in key moments on the big stage. He’s the underdog in the final, of course. But Thiem has a chance here…

22/1 for a 3/1 shot…

While the bookies make the Austrian a 3/1 shot for on-the-day upset, the ‘Win’ part of our Each Way bet in the Outright Winner market means we have 22/1 or 20/1 for Thiem to win this match.

That’s a great position to be in. And we have a half-the-odds place payout for reaching the final already secured, too.

Djokovic is short odds-on, at 1/4 (1.25).

It feels like we’ve got something of a free roll on this one.

With Kenin already ensuring this is a profitable tournament for us. And less equity to play with in the odds than in the women’s final, I’m happy to let this one ride with regards to that 20/1+ on Thiem to win.

That’s my take. If it sits better with you to shift some points to the favourite, then stake accordingly and back Djokovic.

It’s already been a good weekend, and a good tournament. Enjoy the final.

Sunday Night Club...

The tennis tour is relentless. Three men’s tournaments start on Monday, spread across three different countries and all with different playing conditions:

  • ATP Cordoba, Argentina (the first clay court event of the season) 
  • ATP Pune, India (hard court)
  • ATP Montpellier, France (indoor hard court)

I’ll be in touch on Sunday evening with a first look at the Outright Winner prices, and most likely one or two Ones to Watch selections.


Well done and thanks to Peter, Ian, Frank and David, who all emailed in to share their winning stories after Kenin lifted the trophy this morning.

David got an early 66/1 on Kenin…

Ian says 50/1 was a “steal,” and he’s raising a glass to celebrate tonight…

Frank backed Sofia not once but twice, taking 60/1 & 50/1…

And Peter was very happy with his 40/1 Each Way payout from a fiver stake.

Great stuff.
You can email me at:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch