Tennis Betting Advice - February 2020

ATP Cordoba – One to Watch at 40/1...

Wednesday 5th February 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Play starts 6.30pm...
  • 40/1 catches the eye...
  • Moutet on clay...

ATP Cordoba – One to Watch at 40/1...

In Sunday’s email, we got on two Frenchmen for this week’s ATP Montpellier event.

We’re adding a third French player at outsider odds today, this time at the first clay-court tournament of the season, ATP Cordoba in Argentina...

Twelve months ago, Argentinean newcomer Juan-Ignacio Londero was a 150/1 surprise winner of the inaugural event. This week Londero went off at 20/1 at best. After winning his 1st round match on Tuesday night, he’s now as short as 9/1 in places.

Londero is in the top half of the Cordoba draw, which contains fellow Argentinean, top seed and 3/1 shot Diego Schwartzman.

At more exciting prices, I like an upcoming 20-year-old in the bottom half of the draw...

Reaching a first ATP final in Doha last month (at 100/1), Corentin Moutet moved up to a career-high No.70 in the world. He started last season ranked No.144.

The French left-hander is making good progress, and could be underrated in the match and tournament prices over the next few months.

Doha is a hard-court event. Moutet’s best surface is clay. So far in his young career, Corentin has an impressive 69% match win rate on clay. With 125 of his 192 match wins to date coming on the red dirt (65%).

Moutet was a convincing 6-4, 6-3 winner in his 1st round match against Brazilian clay-courter Thiago Monteiro (No.89).

This evening Moutet lines up against yet another South American and another left-handed opponent, too, with last year’s Cordoba runner-up Guido Pella the 8/13 (1.62) match favourite.

The 29-year-old Argentinean is a justified favourite on ranking (No.22) and experience. But Moutet beat him 3-1 on clay at the French Open last year. And against fellow left-handers throughout his career, Pella is won 13 lost 15.

Moutet is 13/10 (2.30) to beat Pella tonight. If he gets through, he’ll be into the quarter finals. And whoever wins this evening’s match will be the favourite to beat Carlos Taberner or Andrej Martin, both of whom are ranked No.100+.

On day one, in the Outright Winner market, Moutet was 50/1 at best and 28/1 in general. After winning his opening match 2-0, the French youngster is available today at a top price 40/1, and 20/1+ in general. Ladbrokes & Coral make him just 12/1.

The advice is to take the best price you can get today. Moutet looks value right now, especially at 40/1. And if he overturns the odds to beat Pella tonight (10pm UK time) then those Outright prices will be trimmed substantially.

Ones to Watch:

Outright Winner pick – Each Way

ATP Cordoba:

  • Corentin Moutet is 40/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 25/1 Skybet, 20/1 Bet365, Boylesports, Betway, 888 Sport, Unibet, BetVictor, William Hill

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.

Today’s play starts in Cordoba from 6.30pm. Bookies suspend their Outright Winner markets during each day’s matches.

I’ll be back later in the week with an update. Then on Sunday night with our first picks for next week’s tournaments.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch