Tennis Betting Advice - February 2020
Sunday Night Club – start the week at 14/1…
Sunday 23rd February 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Garin in the final…
Rain delays played a bit of havoc with the schedules this week. As I write, Sunday’s final at ATP Rio de Janeiro and ATP Delray Beach are still to be completed.
A couple of players will be in action twice today, having had to come back from Saturday night to complete their weather-halted semi finals…
One of those players is our 10/1 Each Way pick in Rio, Cristian Garin. The 23-year-old has the slight upper hand going into tonight’s final, in that he was first on court this afternoon to compete his semi final – and got the job done much quicker than the man he’ll meet in the final, Gianluca Mager.
Mager has been a real surprise package this week. The 25-year-old Italian, ranked No.128 in the world, has reached his first ATP final. Mager came through qualifying in Rio this week, and ended up played one of those qualification opponents again in the semi earlier today (beat World No.106 Attila Balazs, 7-6, 4-6, 7-6).
Gianluca Mager’s big scalp was taking out the tournament favourite, Dominic Thiem, in one of the surprise results of the season so far.
Cristian Garin is No.25 in the world and will go up to a new a career high in the rankings on Monday, whatever the result tonight. The bookies now make our 10/1 (11.00) man a clear favourite for the Rio title, at 2/7 (1.29) to beat Mager in the final. We already have a half-the-odds place payout assured for reaching the final.
That match is on Amazon Prime Video from 8.30pm tonight, UK time.
Ones to Watch on repeat…
Over in the States, Reilly Opelka is another player on court twice with a back-to-back semi final & final today.
The American is an example of how our weekly Ones to Watch picks can deliver the tournament after we flag them up…
Last time out, we were on Opelka at 10/1 in New York. He made the quarter finals there. This time, the 6’11” big server has made it to the final at Delray Beach, where he started the week a top-price 12/1.
Last week, we had an Each Way payout from 25/1 Elena Rybakina in St Petersburg. I said after that final that Elena was one to look out for from now on… I didn’t think she’d deliver again the very next week, though.
Having played so much tennis already in 2020, I thought Rybakina might be a little tired in Dubai. But that was wrong. The 20-year-old pulled off some of her best and most confident wins yet, beating the likes of Sofia Kenin and Karolina Pliskova en-route to the Dubai final, starting the week as a 22/1 chance. World No.2 Simona Halep eventually halted Rybakina in a three-set final.
Rybakina has moved into the Top 20 for the first time. We’ll be on the lookout for her again soon, for sure. And Reilly Opelka is already firmly in our thoughts, having featured in our pre-season Ones to Watch in 2020 report…
Felix Auger-Aliassime is also on that 2020 player list. The Canadian teenager has just made back-to-back finals on the ATP Tour, finishing runner-up at Rotterdam (at 66/1) and then Marseille (at 12/1). Felix is getting closer to a maiden title win.
First picks of the week…
With the rain delays at Rio and Delray Beach, and some late start times on the Monday schedule (with some qualification spots still to be decided, plus the potential for busy established names withdrawing). We’re taking things a little steady this evening and waiting to pull the trigger on most of this week’s tournament on Monday or Tuesday.
View the calendar here. There are five events taking place. Acapulco is a pretty big one, with both the men and women in action. Play doesn’t start there until 10pm Monday, UK time. We have time to get our previews & more homework done then.
There are some big names in action this coming week, too, with the Top 2 men in the world back on tour…
Rafael Nadal goes off as a 13/8 (2.63) favourite at ATP Acapulco. And Novak Djokovic is odds-on to win ATP Dubai, at 8/11 (1.73) at best and 4/6 (1.67) in general.
Also, on the favourite theme, Cristian Garin – who is still to play that Rio final tonight – is the 7/2 (4.50) market leader for his ‘home’ event in Chile, ATP Santiago. It remains to be seen how sharp he’ll be for that trip from Rio in the next 24 hours or so. As top seed, Garin will have a Bye through to the 2nd round, so that will buy him some recovery time.
We go for bigger prices…
Roberto likes it here…
In the opposite half of the ATP Dubai draw to World No.1 Djokovic, I like the experienced and reliable Roberto Bautista-Agut at 14/1.
This is a high-profile ATP 500-grade event, on hard courts. The 31-year-old Spaniard has a good record on the hard courts, despite the Spanish stereotype for being a clay-courter.
In fact, only one of his nine career ATP titles has been won on the clay. And each of his last seven trophies came at hard-court tournaments. Even more significant, perhaps, is the fact that Bautista-Agut’s last two title wins have come in this part of the world…
The current World No.12 is a former winner here in Dubai (2018). And last year, Roberto won ATP Doha, too.
He can’t meet the favourite Djokovic until the final. And if that match-up does happen, the Spanish underdog will fancy himself to have a fighting chance – Bautista-Agut has actually beaten Djokovic in each of their last two meetings on hard courts, including the Doha final last year…
Ones to Watch:
Outright Winner picks – Each Way*
*With Djokovic bossing the betting here, the bookies have trimmed their usual 1/2 odds place terms to 1/3rd the odds. Each Way terms: 1/3 odds 1-2 places.
**Check with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill and Boylesports, too. They should price up late Sunday night/ early Monday morning. Read more about my recommended bookies for Outright Winner bets here.
Bookies suspend their Outright Winner markets during each day’s matches. Play starts in Dubai from 10am Monday morning.
More tomorrow…
I’ll be back on Monday with more picks and analysis. In particular, we’ll be looking at the Acapulco markets and prices.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson