Tennis Betting Advice - February 2020

Ones to Watch in Rio – at 10/1 and 25/1...

Monday 17th February 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Ones to Watch in Rio...
  • 10/1 and 25/1 picks…
  • Play starts 7.30pm...

ATP preview...

We kicked off our week with a preview of WTA Dubai last night. Today we’re looking at the men’s events. Three tournaments start today:

ATP 500: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil – clay

ATP 250: Delray Beach, USA – hard

ATP 250: Marseille, France – indoor hard

French theme...

Following French players in French tournaments is a theme we’ve touched on a few times…

ATP Marseille has seen 10 French finalists in the last 10 years. Including two all-French finals, and four Frenchmen lifting the trophy.

Home representatives this time include Richard Gasquet and Benoit Paire, to name just two. Both men were 40/1 with Bet365 this morning, and play their 1st round matches today (starting 2.30pm UK time).

I’m interested to see what shape those two are in. Gasquet has had fitness troubles. Paire has been badly out of form in the last few weeks – but is the kind of erratic player that can ‘turn it on’ out of the blue. We’ll wait and see in Marseille, for now.

Follow the form in Rio...

ATP Rio de Janeiro is the third clay court event of the year, the last in the annual February ATP Tour trilogy in South America known as the ‘Golden Swing.’

Dominic Thiem is the big favourite here. The bookies make the 2017 Rio winner just 11/10 (2.10) or Evens (2.00) for the title.

Those are some all-in, Win Only odds – and as such, not for us. We had Thiem as 22/1 Each Way in Australia last month. We’ll wait for better days with bigger prices before backing him again.

Also, there’s always the danger that Thiem could be a little rusty on his first clay appearance of the year, even if it is the Austrian’s best surface.

In the opposite half of the Rio draw to Thiem, there are two form men I like on the clay, both available at much bigger prices than the favourite…

Cristian Garin won 21 out of 29 matches on clay last year (72%), winning two titles in the process. The 23-year-old from Chile has started 2020 in similarly strong form on the red dirt, winning ATP Cordoba at the start of February, as an 11/1 shot.

Garin is 10/1 in Rio this week and he looks a genuine ‘best of the rest’ as the second favourite in this Outright Winner market. And if Thiem stumbles on his path towards the final, then Garin will be the man to beat.

Also in the bottom half of the draw, Juan Ignacio Londero is one to keep on side at around 20/1...

The 26-year-old burst onto the scene last year, winning ATP Cordoba as a 100/1 rank outsider.

Londero has started 2020 on clay with a quarter final in Cordoba, followed by a semi final in Buenos Aires last week. The Argetinean has the forehand, spirit and clay-court nous to go one better in the third leg of the Golden Swing this week.

If he beats the more fashionable name of Borna Coric in the 1st round, then Londero’s price will be chopped here. Coric has lost 10 of his last 11 competitive matches.

Delray Beach has seen some biggies...

ATP Delray Beach is also on our radar this week. This American hard-court event has produced some huge prices in recent times…

Last year, Radu Albot was a 50/1 winner, beating 100/1 Dan Evans in the final.

In 2018, the final was a 50/1 shot v a 40/1 shot.

And back in 2016, Delray Beach saw a 20/1 winner and a 100/1 runner-up.

Looking at the current 2020 market and the draw, there are a few gaps to fill in as it stands with the bookies still yet to get their full range of prices up, and at least one player withdrawing (Tennys Sandgren).

Tonight’s first wave of 1st round matches (starting 5.30pm) probably won’t change too much in the Outright picture for this one. We’ll take another look at Delray Beach midweek, if any players & prices catch the eye.

For today, then, we’re adding two men in Rio to our Ones to Watch selections for this week...

Ones to Watch:

Outright Winner picks – Each Way

ATP Rio de Janeiro:

  • Cristian Garin is 10/1 with Bet365, William Hill, 9/1 Boylesports
  • Juan Ignacio Londero is 25/1 with Boylesports, 22/1 Bet365, 18/1 Skybet, William Hill

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.

Bookies suspend their Outright Winner markets during each day’s matches. Play starts in Rio from 7.30pm this evening.

I’ll be back in the week with more analysis for you.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch