Tennis Betting Advice - February 2021
Australian Open: Day 9 - my 4/1 picks for the quarter finals...
Monday 15th February 2021
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Welcome to Day 9 of your Ones to Watch Australian Open daily service…
I’ll tell you what impressed me most about Jessica Pegula last night…
Not the 70% of 1st serve points won, or the 72% of points won at the net.
Or the 31 winners that helped power her to a first win over a Top 10 player, and reach a first Grand Slam quarter final.
But the fact that Pegula managed to pull her game back into line to win the third set…
We’ve seen it so many times over the years. An outsider gets ahead in a big match, a set and break ahead - as the American was last night. Before eventually cracking under the pressure, with the star player turning it round, and cantering home in the final set.
That could have been the case yesterday. But it wasn’t. The 26-year-old remembered Plan A: play fast, play direct, hit hard. And, most importantly of all, was able to hold it all together mentally, to execute that plan.
Yesterday’s third-set win is significant, to me at least, because it shows the intelligence in Pegula’s game. And the ability to get the job done…
It’s no accident that many players like this on the women’s tour - all-out attackers like Aryna Sabalenka, Jennifer Brady, Iga Swiatek - win a lot of matches in straight sets, 2-0. Because when Plan A is going well, it’s a fast route to the finish line, and opponents get the racket taken out of their hand. And in women’s tennis, unlike at the men’s Grand Slams, it’s first to two sets - so the finish line can be sprinted to.
It’s not so much that players like this are one-trick ponies; more that their trains don’t stop at many stations.
Pegula beat Elina Svitolina 6-4, 3-6, 6-3. We have a 100/1 shot into the quarter finals. And I have some positive thoughts on Jessica’s upcoming match against Jennifer Brady; things that a lot of people don’t seem to be saying. I’ll share those with you tomorrow.
My 4/1 picks for the Quarter Finals...
The quarter finals are split across the next two days. Tonight’s opening gambits include two players that were absolutely massive rank outsiders in the pre-tournament odds…
In the men’s, Aslan Karatsev takes on Grigor Dimitrov. The 27-year-old Russian is getting the ‘late bloomer’ plaudits left, right & centre. This is by far the best tournament performance of his life. In the day-one Outright Winner betting, Karatsev was 1,000/1 and bigger. Dimitrov himself was 150/1.
And in the women’s, the 35-year-old Su-Wei Hsieh is also making her career debut in a Grand Slam quarter final. Hsieh was a top-price 1,000/1 before the event began. She’s still the underdog now, 66/1, bottom of the list of the eight players left standing in the women’s draw.
Hsieh may still have a few tricks left up her sleeve though, especially if she can keep the nerves in check tonight. No fans in the stadium should help. Su-Wei takes on the tournament favourite Naomi Osaka. While the match upset is probably worth more than odds of 11/2 (6.5), there is formbook evidence for the veteran to make this tricky for Osaka…
The head-to-head is 4-1 to Naomi. But three of those four victories went the distance, with Osaka eventually prevailing, by two sets to one. Compared to short odds touching 1/10 (1.1) for the favourite in the Match Winner market, 4/1 (5.0) and thereabouts for the 2-1 Set Betting option appeals to me.
In the 4th round, we saw three women’s blockbuster matches all go to three sets. Osaka saved match points and came from a set down to beat Garbine Muguruza, 2-1. Serena Williams beat Sabalenka by the 2-1 score. And Simona Halep recovered from losing the first set to beat Swiatek, 2-1.
Williams v Halep is a huge match tomorrow morning (8am UK time). Serena is the 8/11 (1.73) favourite, with Halep at 11/10 (2.1). The career head-to-head is 9-2 to Williams. Halep won the last meeting; a devastating performance in the 2019 Wimbledon final.
Prior to that 6-2, 6-2 masterclass at SW19, all three of their Grand Slam encounters had been taken by Serena, in three sets. I reckon this could be Halep’s turn for a 2-1 triumph over the famous American...
It’s likely to be close. And with the outside pressure pretty much all on Serena, still looking for a record-equalling 24th Major title. Halep’s fighting qualities and relentless desire could see her come out on top here. Again, 4/1 for a 2-1 win appeals to me.
The other quarter final on the Day 9 schedule is Novak Djokovic v Alexander Zverev…
Some of the is-he-injured drama seems to have died down around Djokovic now, after a 3-1 win over Milos Raonic in the last round. That said, the World No.1 has now dropped sets in each of the last three rounds. And was still prone to plenty of grimacing and grumbling against Raonic. Playing possum, or fighting through the pain barrier? Only he knows.
This is the first Grand Slam meeting on hard courts v Zverev. The overall head-to-head is 6-3 to Novak. The younger man is getting closer to a maiden Grand Slam title, though. Zverev reached the semi finals here at the Australian Open last year, and then the US Open final in the autumn.
Djokovic is 4/9 (1.44) in general. The German is 7/4 (2.75) for the upset. We just don’t know what we’re going to get in this match. Both men can go from the sublime to the surreal. I’ll be watching, and hoping for a five-set classic. But no bet from me there.
If it’s shocks that you’re after…
In this week’s other tournament at Melbourne Park, the WTA Phillip Island Trophy, our two big-price Ones to Watch picks are going well so far…
From 66/1 and 50/1 on Saturday, Rebecca Peterson is now down to 12/1 for the trophy. And 33/1 & 25/1 shot Marie Bouzkova is around 8/1. Both women play again tonight, and the bookies have them both as firm favourites to progress to the quarter finals.
This WTA 250 event has seen plenty of upsets so far - and at some big prices, too. Sofia Kenin lost to an unranked 7/1 shot in round one. Alize Cornet was knocked out by a 5/1 underdog. And Aliaksandra Sasnovich was dumped out by a 7/1 Lucky Loser. That’s to name just three…
Misaki Doi was a 3/1 winner in the 1st round, beating Caroline Garcia in straight sets. The Japanese player then got a Walkover through to round three, where she’ll take on Danielle Collins tonight. The upset is available at 3/1+ again…
Collins is the archetypal hit-or-miss player. She’s fiery. She goes for her shots. She gets cross when things don’t go well.
Doi’s approach will be to get a lot of balls back, and wait for the errors to come from her higher-ranked opponent.
As we noted when putting up Peterson and Bouzkova here, in a relatively low-status tournament like this, the unheralded players are well worth following.
Way back in 2015, when Misaki Doi won her first WTA title in Luxembourg as a 100/1 outsider (‘one that got away’ - that I clearly still remember…), I vowed to keep her on the radar. She might not win the trophy this week, but at odds of 3/1 and bigger, she can reward off-the-beaten-track Match Winner bettors like us tonight.
Ones to Watch:
Australian Open Women’s - Set Betting
WTA Phillip Island - Match Winner
I’ll be back at 5pm Tuesday with your Day 10 email, with a look at the next four quarter finals.
P.S
If you have any questions or want to drop me a line, I’m on hand via email. You can message me at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson