Tennis Betting Advice - February 2021
Australian Open: Day 1 – 20/1 snowball, and 200/1 outsider…
Sunday 7th February 2021
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Welcome to Day 1 of your Ones to Watch Australian Open daily service…
Last week’s Melbourne events provided us with a satisfying run-up to the first Grand Slam of the year…
In the Match Winner markets, Katie Boulter beat Coco Gauff at odds of 11/2 (6.5).
And Elise Mertens lifted the WTA Gippsland Trophy, giving us our first Ones to Watch Outright Winner of the new season, at 16/1 Each Way.
The Australian Open starts from Midnight tonight. You can watch the matches live on Eurosport and Eurosport Player. As well as Live Streaming on selected bookie websites, including Bet365.
Let’s get straight into the action…
The plan of attack…
We’re approaching the Australian Open in exactly the same way that we tackle every tournament: going after appealing outsiders at attractive odds…
With a total of 256 players in the men’s & women’s Singles draws, there are always going to be any number of angles and stories to follow.
We could make various cases for a couple of dozen players in Melbourne over the next fortnight. But I’ll be focusing on what I deem to be the most promising prices and opportunities.
In the men’s Grand Slams, 14 of the last 15 titles have been won by the big three, with Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer dominating the game for many years…
Federer isn’t here though. And Nadal skipped the ATP Cup for Spain last week, so there is a slight injury concern hanging over him.
Outsider chances…
The women’s Grand Slams have had a wide-open feel about them for some time now. As we noted in our Aussie Open preview last week:
Last season, we got on two of those first-time Grand Slam winners – at big prices. With 50/1 Sofia Kenin taking the trophy here in Australia, and 100/1 teenager Iga Swiatek blasting her way to the French Open title.
In terms of the Outright Winner prices, it’s all about the early bird getting the worm. For example, for the Aussie Open 2021, Kenin and Swiatek are trading at a best price 20/1 and 25/1, respectively – compared to 50/1 and 100/1 at the previous Grand Slam.
I’m expecting another wide-open women’s Grand Slam event this coming fortnight…
Last week’s warm-up tournaments at the Melbourne Park venue saw big names like Serena Williams, Naomi Osaka, Simona Halep, and Victoria Azarenka, all withdraw. Genuine injury concerns, or just sensible precautionary moves? We’ll find out in the days to come…
One thing’s for sure. I’ll be avoiding the favourites at short odds. My Ones to Watch approach is to back appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices.
It’s an aggressive tactic, and one that results in more losers than winners. Betting at odds such as 50/1 and 100/1, there are never any guarantees. But as we saw last season – and indeed many times before, if you’re a long-term Ones to Watch follower – the wait for the Big One is always worth it.
And it’s usually an exciting ride…
Outright Winner picks…
Play starts overnight with the Day 1 schedule seeing 1st round matches for players from the top half of the men’s draw (that’s Djokovic’s side of the drawsheet). And the bottom half of the women’s…
This bottom side of the women’s Australian Open draw is what you call ‘stacked.’ Big names aplenty:
With the likes of Naomi Osaka, Garbine Muguruza, Bianca Andreescu, Petra Kvitova, and Marketa Vondrousova in Quarter 3. All of them former Grand Slam finalists or winners. Not to mention Angelique Kerber, and Venus Williams, both multiple ‘Slam champions.
And in Quarter 4, Simona Halep and Serena Williams are the big two, along with 19-year-old Swiatek.
20/1 snowball…
Returning from injury, Bianca Andreescu at 20/1 is an interesting one. Very interesting, in fact…
The 20-year-old Canadian hasn’t been seen in action for well over a year. Her last Grand Slam appearance was in New York in 2019 – where she went all the way, beating Serena in the US Open final.
That was no fluke. Earlier that year, Bianca was a big winner for us at Indian Wells. On hard courts, since the start of 2019, Andreescu has competed in nine events – and reached the final in five of them. She’s the real deal.
This young lady is a confident player. And she knows how to win. Off the court, Bianca also brings something a little different, too. She’s big on positive visualisation:
“My mind is going on 24/7 with all that imagery work. There's many studies that show imagery work is just as good as actually doing that specific thing that you're picturing in your head. I don't really think my return to play will be that dramatic just because of that. I really trust in my capabilities … I feel like I'm in a really good place right now mentally, physically, emotionally, all of that.”
It's easy to write Andreescu off as injury prone. She pulled out of last week’s warm-up event here in Melbourne. But seeing as the like of Serena, Osaka and co might end up feeling the burn for last week’s initial participation – Andreescu’s extra bit of time training and resting might just end up being a masterstroke…
As I always say, I am in possession of no special injury or fitness knowledge. But in terms of the betting, I’ll say this:
If Andreescu really is fit & ready to go – as she says she is – then odds of 20/1 could end up looking massive in a week or so from now. To make my point, she’s half the price, at just 10/1 at best, to win the US Open later this year.
An impressive statement win in the 1st round tonight could see her Aussie Open odds chopped to 14/1 or 12/1. Once it starts rolling, Andreescu on form in a big tournament is a snowball that’s hard to stop…
Meanwhile, in the realm of the 100/1+ outsiders…
Names in my notes that could give a good account of themselves at triple-figure odds in the bottom half of the women’s draw include last year’s quarter-finalist Ons Jabeur, and crafty comeback queen, Tsvetana Pironkova.
One that I’m keen to get in the book at very speculative odds today is Veronika Kudermetova at 200/1…
The 23-year-old Russian featured in our Ones to Watch in 2020 report last season. After starting 2021 in sharp form with a 50/1 runner-up showing in Abu Dhabi last month, Kudermetova could be on the cusp of a breakthrough run at a Grand Slam this season.
In the bottom quarter of the draw, Veronika could take advantage if Simona Halep’s bad back proves to be a genuine injury concern. And if they do meet, the young Russian has the power game to test Halep, and potentially spring a surprise.
A 1st round match tonight against Ones to Watch in 2021 teenager Marta Kostyuk should prove a good judge of early form. The 18-year-old Ukrainian is on our new 2021 list of teenagers to watch. Kudermetova beat Kostyuk 2-0 in Abu Dhabi last month. The bookmakers have the 23-year-old as an 8/11 (1.73) favourite to beat Marta again.
With Day 1 only seeing half of the players in action, and week one in general a broad hunting ground for snapping up big prices, I’m likely to be going in again at large Each Way odds tomorrow, and in the days to come.
A third name to add to the women’s Outright Winner book this evening though is another player prominent in this column in recent times, Elena Rybakina, at 40/1…
The Russian-born Kazakhstan representative is on the aforementioned OTW in 2021 list. Rybakina was the form player on the WTA Tour last season, reaching five finals.
Hard courts are the best surface for her hard & fast, flat-hitting game. At the Australian Open in 2020, Elena reached the 3rd round before running into current World No.1, Ashleigh Barty.
As I said in the 2021 pre-season report, the next step for Rybakina is to make a name for herself on the Grand Slam stage. At 21 – the same age that Sofia Kenin was when lifting a maiden Major trophy here last year – why not now for Rybakina…
If Elena plays to her potential, then she has a decent-looking route through the early rounds. Starting with a 1st round match against 36-year-old Russian veteran Vera Zvonareva tonight.
Ones to Watch:
Women’s Outright Winner – Each Way
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.
Play starts from Midnight.
I’ll be back at 5pm on Monday with your Day 2 analysis, picks and advice. Including a look at the Match Winner prices, as well as the Outright Winner markets.
P.S
If you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’m on hand via email. You can message me at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson