Tennis Betting Advice - February 2022
Fast times in Dallas at 40/1...
Monday 7th February 2022
Our 20/1 shot Juan Ignacio Londero did pretty well last week. The Argentinian reached the ATP Cordoba semi finals, and landed underdog Match Winner odds against Pedro Martinez along the way.
After 66/1 Danielle Collins was runner-up at the Australian Open last month, Londero was just one victory away from securing another Each Way payout for us there.
I’ve got another couple of outsider picks lined up for us today. There are four tournaments on this week’s ATP & WTA schedule – view the full list on our Calendar page here.
Outside chance at 40/1…
ATP Dallas is the event I’m concentrating on this Monday afternoon. This is a new stop-off on the tour, but this tournament took place under a different guise as the New York Open from 2018…
That New York event featured in Ones to Watch a few times, with its distinctive ‘black courts’ playing very fast as indoor hard courts. Those conditions led to some wars of attrition on serve; something we had very much in mind when backing the Ace-happy Sam Querrey to win the New York Open back in 2019.
Big Sam’s record at that short-lived Big Apple competition was pretty darn good:
ATP New York 2018 – Querrey made the final (runner-up)
ATP New York 2019 – Querrey made the semi finals
Sam is now 34 years of age and things haven’t gone particularly well for him on court for some time. However, if the 6’6” American is going to get out of the funk, he’ll have as good a chance as any to do so at home in the States. On a fast-playing surface that will play into the hands of the big servers – of which there are a few in this inaugural Dallas Open 2022 field…
Another tall American, Taylor Fritz, is the 4/1 tournament favourite. With fellow giant US servers Reilly Opelka (11/2), John Isner (17/2), and Maxime Cressy (8/1 Betfred, 7/1 general) all also at single figure quotes in the Outright Winner betting.
Our Ones to Watch in 2022 youngster Jenson Brooksby is also a fancied home player here, at 7/1. Along with yet another American (and former Ones to Watch name), Brandon Nakashima, at 8/1.
Given that the veteran Querrey is available today at 40/1 with Betfred and 33/1 elsewhere, Sam’s track record on this playing surface makes him one to get behind as a speculative outside chance. It’s a bit of an against-the-grain pick considering the 34-year-old is ranked outside of the world’s top 100 these days (no.118). But going against the short-price favourites has served us well many times before, and going after the bigger prices with an angle or edge in mind is what we’re all about.
Anderson v Querrey tonight…
Querrey kicks off the new Dallas event tonight, taking on his 2018 New York Open final victor Kevin Anderson in the opening match (10pm, UK time).
Anderson is himself a big server with age now against him. The South African turns 36 in May, and is ranked #101. Anderson is 20/1 at best to lift the trophy this week, and 18/1 in general.
The match betting has Kev as an 8/15 (1.53) favourite to beat Querrey. I’m not sure at all about that odds-on price for the injury-blighted Anderson. The long-term career head-to-head is very close, at 9-8 to Sam.
Should Sam win through tonight, the 36-year-old Isner waits in the next round. Again, those two are old foes, with Querrey just in front on the head-to-head, 5-4.
Odds of 33/1+ Each Way are worth a long-shot play on Querrey here. Along with underdog odds of 6/4 (2.5) for him to get past Anderson this evening.
With that track record in mind, odds of 6/4 (2.5) for a 1st Set Tiebreak (Over 12.5 Games) might also appeal to you this evening. Alternatively, you could play the individual 7-6 Set score markets – for example, Querrey to win the 1st Set by the 7-6 score is 4/1 with Bet365.
Modest Frenchman at 20/1…
Elsewhere in this bottom half of the Dallas draw, a player that I very nearly sent out as a 40/1 pick for Montpellier last week. Adrian Mannarino ultimately came up short there, with the Frenchman soundly beaten by world no.3 Alexander Zverev in the quarter finals. There’s no-one of Zverev’s quality in this week’s Dallas Open field though, and that latest spurt of indoor hard-court form is enough to keep Adrian on the radar this week…
In my opinion, Mannarino is often underrated indoors. He’s won over 200 matches when playing under a roof on hard courts, and made a semi final and final at indoor events in 2020, with some decent players falling to his left-handed game along the way.
Odds of 20/1 and 18/1 make the 33-year-old one to follow as a low-key outsider here, in a week that might just turn out good for the 30-somethings.
Ones to Watch picks:
ATP Dallas – Dallas Open
Outright Winner – Each Way:
Each Way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places
Play starts in Dallas from 10pm, UK time. Bookies suspend Outright Winner markets when the day’s play begins.
Enjoy the tennis…