Tennis Betting Advice - February 2023
Pick for today: a long one in Lyon...
Wednesday 1st February 2023
Good morning. I’m about to sit down to watch today’s matches in Lyon…
We’ve got two Outright Winner picks for this women’s indoor hard-court tournament, placed at the start of the week. Anastasia Potatpova went in the book at 18/1 on Sunday night (with Unibet then going 20/1 the next morning). The 21-year-old Russian came from behind to win her 1st round match on Monday, by two sets to one.
Our other Each Way selection for WTA Lyon, Rebeka Masarova at 33/1, is just about to play her 1st round match as I write. Along with Bet365’s top price, BetVictor also had the Spaniard at 33/1 come Monday morning.
Today I’ve got a match selection for this French indoors event, with an ‘Over’ bet in the Total Games market:
Camila Osorio v Jule Niemeier - Over 21.5 Games @ Evens
Match scheduled 5.30pm, UK time
Live on Amazon Prime Video
Live streaming on selected bookie sites inc. Bet365, Ladbrokes
Two promising young players that we followed at big prices last season…
Maria Camila Osorio Serrano - now more commonly referred to as simply Camila Osorio on the WTA Tour - was a 30/1 Each Way runner-up for us at Monterrey last March. The Colombian had multiple match points in the final to win that trophy. Now age 21, and currently no.73 in the world rankings.
Jule Niemeier was a 100/1 outsider pick at Wimbledon (reached the quarter finals), and showed plenty of potential in big matches last season. Age 23, and currently ranked no.71.
The German has more of a traditional hard-court power game than her South American opponent, hence Niemeier’s favouritism in the betting today. But Camila is better on hard courts than many might assume - indeed, last year’s run to the Monterrey final came on hard courts, albeit in different conditions to this week’s European indoors event.
Two youngsters with plenty of fighting spirit here, and it’s close on the rankings with no.73 playing no.71. Both women have previous for getting into long, scrappy matches. And I believe there’s a good chance that’s what we’ll see this evening: a potentially error-strewn encounter, which could take some time to resolve…
The defining characteristic could be double faults. Both of these ladies hit a lot of them. In the 1st round this week, Osorio served 10 double faults, in a three-set victory. Niemeier also came through a messy three-setter, racking up 8 double faults.
Bet365 are clearly expecting a high double-fault count in this one. With a list of short odds-on prices in the Total Double Faults in the Match market:
5+ Double Faults @ 1/750 (!)
8+ @ 1/40
10+ @ 1/14
12+ @ 2/11
15+ @ 1/2
The upshot of all this is that I think we’re in for a long match here, potentially with many breaks of serve. The bet for me is Over 21.5 Games. An option that could pay out even if this match gets settled in two sets (7-5, 6-4, for example).
As I write, once again, Oddshecker is no use for finding this market or even this match. I’ve listed the main bookies and top prices below.
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Ones to Watch picks:
WTA Lyon - Open 6E Sens Metropole de Lyon
Camila Osorio v Jule Niemeier
Note: at William Hill, the Over 21.5 Games option can be found in the ‘Alternative Total Games 2’ market.
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Depending on today’s other Lyon matches, Osorio v Niemeier is due on court around 5.30pm, UK time.
P.S
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Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson