Tennis Betting Advice - February 2023
Ones to Watch in Dallas - at 14/1 and 20/1...
Tuesday 7th February 2023
I said it was a busy week on the tour. And after this morning’s advice for ATP Montpellier, I want to get some more Outright Winner business in the book this afternoon.
With today’s play at ATP Dallas starting from 6pm, UK time…
Horses for courses…
As the financial saying goes, past performance is not indicative of future results. But when it comes to the tennis tournament formbooks, it can certainly help to have prior knowledge of who tends to do well at a certain location and on a particular playing surface…
For example, between 2010 and 2020 at the indoor Montpellier event, there was at least one Frenchman in the final every year…
Or how about one of this week’s other tournaments on the men’s tour, in Cordoba. In four renewals of this clay-court event, six of the eight finalists have been South Americans.
Now, it’s not as simple as backing ‘home’ players on the tour every week – of course it isn’t. And that policy is flawed anyway, as how do you choose who to back? There are over a dozen South American players in the ATP Corboda field this week, for instance.
There are also several American names in the draw at ATP Dallas. But we can narrow down the contenders a little here by looking at traits such as indoor hard-court form, career track record in the USA, and how things panned out in the inaugural Dallas Open last year…
Two for Dallas…
The Dallas Open 2022 featured a full house of United States representatives in the semi finals. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar outcome this week. With maybe a Canadian joining the pack, too, seeing as Denis Shapovalov is priced as one of the favourites for the trophy at 11/2 (6.5).
The men I like are two of those USA semi-finalists from last season. John Isner at 14/1 or 12/1. And Maros Giron at 20/1. We’ve backed both men before at similar events – on hard courts, and/ or indoors, and in the States.
Isner has won 16 ATP titles in his career – and 14 of them have come in the USA. You can add in another 12 out of 14 appearances in finals as runner-up, too. His massive serve has always made him a threat on fast courts indoors, too.
Giron hasn’t quite had the illustrious career of former world no.8 Isner. But Marcos is currently closing in on his highest ranking to date (Top 50). And along with a semi final here in Dallas last season, Giron’s sole appearance to date in an ATP final came in the USA, at San Diego just last year.
And as we noted in yesterday’s email, first-time winners are a bit of theme on the tours right now….
Perhaps 29-year-old Giron can pick up silverware for the first time this week. If and when he does lift a maiden trophy, I’d say it’ll likely be at an American, smaller 250-grade event like this one. A form line that can traced to his success in the States on the lower-tier tour, including two ATP Challenger titles back in 2019 (Houston and Orlando).
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Ones to Watch picks:
ATP Dallas – Dallas Open
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
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Play starts from 6pm, at which point bookies will take down their Outright Winner markets for the evening. Giron and Isner both play in the 1st round tonight.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson