Tennis Betting Advice - February 2025
Ones to Watch in Rio at 6/1 and 20/1...
Monday 17th February 2025
The new kid on the block just won his first ATP Tour title - and now he heads to Brazil for his home tournament this week…
In last week’s Ones to Watch EXTRA player notes (read the piece here), I flagged up 18-year-old Joao Fonseca as an exciting young prospect…
The Brazilian teenager had an epic breakthrough run in Argentina last week. Winning his first senior ATP Tour title, and this morning installed at a new career-high of no.68 in the world rankings.
Sunday’s Buenos Aires final had it all… a Brazilian against an Argentinean (Francisco Cerundolo), in a three-set battle that went all the way to a deciding tiebreak… with a packed stadium full of passionate fans. Great to see.
Both finalists head to Brazil this week, for the Rio Open. Last week in Buenos Aires was a 250-grade event. This time, we’re at 500-level, and the stakes are raised. Even more so perhaps for young Joao. Born in Rio, this is his home tournament. Fonseca made his first splash on the tour here 12 months ago, reaching the quarter final as a 17-year-old.
The man who beat him here last year is back again, too. Argentina’s Mariano Navone reached his first ATP final at the Rio Open 2024 (runner-up). The 23-year-old also met Fonseca last week in Buenos Aires. In fact, Navone came closer than anyone to stopping the teenager’s headline-making run. Mariano had two match points to beat Joao. But the inspired 18-year-old roared back to win.
It’s not inconceivable that Fonseca and Navone could end up meeting again this week - and being on opposite sides of the draw as they are, that would be Sunday’s final…
I quite like Navone’s draw here. The world no.46 is in the bottom half. Where he could face the defending champ - but currently-out-of-form - fellow Argentinean, Sebastian Baez. Navone is available at a bigger price than Baez here (20/1 v 14/1, tops).
And with our 100/1 French Open early-pick Lorenzo Musetti (still available at 80/1 for Roland Garros 2025), trading as one of the favourites at 10/1 here in Rio - despite pulling out injured in Buenos Aires last week. A keen and hungry clay-courter like Navone is just the kind of player who could strike through this week.
In the top half, the star name is world no.2, Alexander Zverev. But the German is making his debut at this tournament. And only managed one match win on a first 2025 foray onto clay in Argentina last week. Granted, Rio this week is a bigger, 500-grade event. But I’d still rather be with an underdog and/ or a new kid on the block…
That leads us back to Joao Fonseca. The teenager had the trainer on for massages during his semi-final win on Saturday. But I was so impressed by how Joao bounced back to win that match - and then again the very next day, in the final.
Teenagers are different to us folk. Their bodies recover quicker. And playing at home here in Rio, I can’t resist getting behind the 18-year-old to stay in the magic moment for a few days more at least…
I would expect the Rio scheduling to be kind to their new golden boy this week. This might be the only 6/1 shot I put up for a tournament Outright Winner bet all season. But as I said last week: sometimes a new kid on the block really is the real deal…
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
ATP Rio de Janeiro - Rio Open presented by Claro
Joao Fonseca @ 6/1 (7.0) William Hill, Bet365, Betfred, BetVictor, Boylesports, Betway, 11/2 (6.5) Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Unibet
Mariano Navone @ 20/1 Skybet, 18/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports, Betway, 16/1 Bet365, William Hill, Betfred, BetVictor
Play starts 7.30pm, UK time - bookies will take down Outright markets during matches. Fonseca and Navone won’t be playing until Tuesday at the earliest.
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P.S
There are also tournaments taking place in Dubai and Doha this week. I’ll be in touch by email with any advice on those, over the next couple of days/ evenings…
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone