Tennis Betting Advice - February 2026
Ones to Watch in Dallas at 12/1...
Monday 9th February 2026
Our season so far has been a tale of two semi finals. Kimberly Birrell in Adelaide at 250/1. And Jessica Pegula at the Australian Open at 40/1. One or two match wins there, and our early 2026 book would be looking more rosy…
That’s the way of things with our Ones to Watch approach. There’s always the wait - before the feast…
There are four more tournaments to look at this week, and plenty of twists & turns in the narratives to come. More on those in the days ahead.
For starters today, let’s get two Americans in the book for the men’s indoor hard-court event in Dallas, Texas. Play starts in the 1st round from 6pm today (UK time) - the Outright Winner market will go down for the evening then, but our two men don’t play until Tuesday onwards…
The betting is headed-up here by two favourites from the States at fairly short tournament prices. Taylor Fritz at 4/1 at best on one side of the draw, and Ben Shelton at 3/1 in general on the other. The former has been trying to shake off an injury niggle for a few weeks. The latter is in a tough section of the draw, considering his price. Neither have won this tournament before, or even got to the final.
At double-figure prices, I prefer two other Americans here this week. Five of the previous eight finalists at this event have been USA representatives…
One of those being TOMMY PAUL, who won ATP Dallas in 2024, and returned to the semi final last year. Injury caused frustrations for Tommy late last summer, but he started 2026 saying he’s playing pain-free. He should be ready to roll here.
Paul has a commanding 5-0 career head-to-head against one of the names on his possible path to the final, the still-yet-to-win-an-ATP-title Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (20/1). Three of Tommy’s four titles have come indoors.
And if the 28-year-old current world no.24 (formerly Top 10) comes up against the favourite Shelton, the head-to-head is tied at 2-2, and it could be a close one. I’d rather be on the underdog, as usual…
In the top half of the Dallas Open field, a fast-rising youngster from our Ones to Watch in 2026 list - LEARNER TIEN…
The 20-year-old is at a career-high ranking of world no.23. Learner broke onto the scene with two ATP titles last season, both at indoor hard-court events. And overall in his young pro career, Tien has an impressive indoors win-loss match record of 31-10 (75.6%). Long-time readers will know that I value a 70%+ win-rate on a particular playing surface.
We’ll take those two at around 12/1 each, Each Way, to start our week on the tour…
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
ATP Dallas - Nexo Dallas Open
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Tommy Paul @ 12/1 Betfred, 11/1 BetVictor, BetMGM, VirginBet, BetUK & LiveScoreBet, 10/1 Bet365, William Hill, Boylesports
Learner Tien @ 13/1 BetMGM, VirginBet, BetUK & LiveScoreBet, 12/1 William Hill, 11/1 Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boylesports, Betway
Play starts from 6pm today, UK time. Bookies will take down the Outright Winner market during each day’s matches.
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I’ll be back in the week with more…
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone