Tennis Betting Advice - February 2026
One to Watch for Wimbledon at 50/1...
Thursday 12th February 2026
You and I play a long-term game in the tournament Outright Winner markets…
As is stands, this week, we have 10/1+ pick Tommy Paul running for us at ATP Dallas. He plays again tonight, for a place in the quarter finals.
When it comes to the annual Grand Slams, we don’t yet have anyone in the book for upcoming 2026 Majors: French Open, Wimbledon, US Open. We getting involved today though, with our first ante-post pick for this summer…
The case for Karolina in 2026…
I said it was a long-term business. The player we’re backing today first featured in Ones to Watch several years ago…
KAROLINA MUCHOVA’s talent has been clear to see ever since she was a youngster. I heard a quote from an old coach who remembered being struck by Karolina’s ball-striking quality, from the very first day they saw her in a practise session as a teenager.
Now age 29, and – touch wood – with her injury problems behind her for this potentially crucial stage of her career. The Czech world no.19 (formerly as high as no.8) is looking good in 2026…
Muchova has won three matches in a row at all three tournaments entered so far this season. And that includes the big WTA 1000 event taking place in Doha this week, where she is very much a threat to go further, playing this afternoon in the quarter finals.
Posting a very handy 9-2 match win-loss record to date this calendar year. And with lots more tennis to come, with the spring & summer schedule ahead…
Given her considerable talents and ability, the fact that Karolina only has one full-level WTA title to her name is one of the most surprising stats on the tour. The dreaded ‘F’ word can be used to more than partly explain that lack of silverware: fitness issues have plagued the skilful right-hander over the years.
I’m not breaking any new ground when I say that if Muchova stays injury-free, then she can be good enough to beat anyone – and win anything…
Indeed, in our 2025 pre-season ‘Czech-list’ report, I stuck my neck out regarding Muchova’s Grand Slam potential:
As mentioned in that report, back in 2023, I’d advised Karolina Muchova as an early-bird selection for Wimbledon that year. Only for the Czech to come good ‘too soon’ for us at a Major, getting to her first Grand Slam final at the French Open that spring, where she came runner-up from a starting price of 100/1. (And it still irks me that during that French Open 2023 run, Muchova beat my Ones to Watch pick Maria Sakkari in the very 1st round, having been in my notes at the time. Ah, the ones that get away…).
Here’s a snippet of what I said when putting Muchova up as a big-price Grand Slam outsider in early 2023:
Drawing comparisons to our 40/1 Wimbledon 2022 runner-up Ons Jabeur (who went on to reach two Wimbledon finals, and is currently on maternity leave), I stick by my analysis of Muchova’s game in relation to the grass courts of SW19…
We can update those 2023 bullet points in the here and now with the following improved Grand Slam stats:
The missing piece of the puzzle in my eyes is a big, headline-making run at Wimbledon…
Karolina made back-to-back quarter finals at SW19 in 2019 and 2021 (with the 2020 event cancelled due to Covid). Since then, she’s fallen in the 1st round, four years in a row.
It can be argued there are some extenuating circumstances behind those recent Wimbledon dead-ends. Not least the fitness struggles. As well as some tough 1st-round draws, themselves often a product of a low ranking due to time away from the tour injured. For example:
Besides, I’m not particularly worried about that SW19 streak. The next leap forward can come at any time. In both 2021 and 2020, Muchova was knocked out in the 1st round of the US Open… since then, she’s gone semi-final, semi-final, quarter-final in New York. See what I mean?
Czech credentials…
Add in the Czech factor as discussed in last year’s Ones to Watch Report (view it here), with the country having an incredible record of producing highly successful female players. With recent 150/1+ Wimbledon champions including Barbora Krejcikova and Marketa Vondrousova. And the case for Karolina is easy for me to make today…
50/1 for Wimbledon…
I certainly wouldn’t rule out Muchova doing something special at any one of the upcoming Grand Slams. But I’m particularly keen on Karolina coming good on the grass at Wimbledon. She has the serve, slice, skill & power to be a real threat there.
Price plays a very big part in our selection process, too, of course. And while Muchova is 40/1 in general for the French Open which starts in late May, and 33/1 for the US Open in New York in August-September… in the middle of those two, Wimbledon this June-July is an attractive target with 50/1 Each Way available pretty much across the board right now:
Oddschecker today – Wimbledon Women’s 2026:
If Karolina continues her good form a the (hard court) WTA 1000 event in Doha this week, then her Major prices may start to be chipped away at more widely. We’ll get her in the book for Wimbledon today.
Note: check the rules…
There’s just one more important note to make here, and that’s regarding which bookmakers to use…
Given Muchova’s injury history, and with Wimbledon still a way off (starts 29th June). It is wise and recommended to bet with bookies who will void your Outright bet in the event of your player being a non-runner. That’s as opposed to firms who only offer ‘all in compete or not’ (eg. stakes lost if your selection doesn’t play).
As ever, the advice is to check the terms & conditions with the bookmaker that you use.
Calling out three mainstream firms we don’t want to use for this Grand Slam selection: BetVictor, Betfred, Betway. They’ll keep your ante-post money if Muchova gets injured and misses Wimbledon. Not nice.
On the other hand, credit where it’s due, with Skybet having particularly favourable (fair) rules in this area, with ‘void’ being the magic word.
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
Wimbledon 2026 – Women’s
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
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I’ll be back this afternoon with this week’s Notes from the Tour email for you.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone