Tennis Betting Advice - February 2026
Ones to Watch in Santiago and Merida - at 40/1 and 28/1...
Monday 23rd February 2026
We got off the mark with our first tournament winner of the season last week…
Sebastian Korda went all the way and lifted the trophy at ATP Delray Beach. I put him up at a top-price 14/1 at the start of last week, and 12/1 was more widely available. Not the biggest Ones to Watch price we’ll see, but a welcome win to kickstart our 2026 campaign nonetheless.
Straight onto the next picks today, with no fewer than five tournaments taking place this week. We’re starting off this Monday with two day-one selections at attractive prices…
ATP Santiago gets underway from 4pm UK time, at which point the Outright Winner market will go down for the evening - although our choice here, VIT KOPRIVA, won’t be in action just yet. So, as with Korda last week, don’t worry if you have to wait until Tuesday morning to get on this one.
I watched several of Kopriva’s matches in Rio last week, where he made the semi finals, and was perhaps a bit unfortunate not to make the final - edged out 4-6, 7-6, 7-6 in a deciding-set tiebreaker in that semi, in a match where the Czech was ahead until a rain delay stopped things in their tracks overnight.
Vit beat three South Americans in a row on that clay-court run last week. Following positively and encouragingly on from his quarter-final showing before that in Buenos Aires. Results and performances which mark the 28-year-old, new world no.65 as one to watch during this current clay-court ‘Golden Swing’ on the ATP Tour…
Next stop, Santiago in Chile this week. I like odds of 33/1+ for Kopriva to continue his recent confident streak on the red dirt, where he can once again outperform expectations against seasoned clay-courters, starting with the out-of-sorts Mariano Navone in the 1st round - with the Argentinean having lost six of his last seven matches on tour.
The Czech right-hander is the match underdog to win that one on Tuesday. And he’d be the bookies’ outsider to beat Italy’s Luciano Darderi in the following round - although we should be very interested to note that the career head-to-head v Darderi is 3-2 to Kopriva, with all five meetings coming on clay.
In short, I reckon this European is being underrated in South America this month. Rocking a new career-best ranking at age 28, Vit catches the eye at chunky Each Way prices here.
Over on the women’s tour, another player we can back to keep up recent confidence and momentum is KATIE BOULTER, available at 28/1 - 25/1 for WTA Merida (Mexico, outdoor hard court). While Ladbrokes & Coral are as short as 10/1, with Skybet at just 12/1…
The Brit is on a high after winning WTA Ostrava on indoor hard courts in the Czech Republic last time out. And with that final being played back on 7th February, the 29-year-old world no.69 has had plenty of time to process her first trophy win since summer 2024 - and get ready to go again…
Boulter starts at midnight tonight against Beatriz Haddad Maia, a former Top 10 player who has dropped to no.66, with injury and a loss of form seeing a pretty big slump for the battle-hardened Brazilian left-hander. Beatriz has lost five out of six matches so far in 2026, and the bookies make Katie the favourite to beat her fellow 29-year-old this evening.
After that, in this side of the Merida draw, the big name for Boulter to beat is Jasmine Paolini. The Italian is on a three-match losing run of her own, and has never appeared at this event before, suggesting she’s scrambling around for something to get her year going. I don’t like the 30-year-old world no.7 at all as the 5/2 (3.5) favourite for the title here. We’re all about price, and that’s not a good one in my eyes.
What’s more, the head-to-head between Boulter and Paolini is close, at 3-2 to the higher-ranked woman. If you take out the one encounter on clay, where the Italian would always be the favourite against the Brit, then it’s 2-2.
Weather conditions may suit Paolini more here in Mexico, but I’m not sure I’d go too much down that line of argument myself, as Boulter is a strong athlete.
Katie has won a full-level WTA title before on outdoor hard courts (San Diego), and the career formbook clearly shows this is in general her best surface, with 214 of her 367 pro match wins coming on hard courts.
We’ll take these two players to start our week on the tour…
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
ATP Santiago - BCI Seguros Chile Open
WTA Merida - Merida Open
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Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone