Tennis Betting Advice - January 2019
Australian Open: The Quiet Man at 25/1…
Sunday 20th January 2019
Australian Open - Bets of the Day
In your Ones to Watch email today:
The Young Ones…
We’ve been waiting for a day of shocks in Melbourne – and last night the big names started to fall…
Angelique Kerber went out. The tournament second favourite was obliterated 6-0, 6-2 by a very impressive performance from Danielle Collins. The American was a 5/1 (6.00) outsider for that one.
Sloane Stephens also crashed out of the Women’s draw.
I didn’t back him – but I said our One to Watch in 2019 youngster Stefanos Tsitsipas was capable of grabbing the headlines….
The 20-year-old Greek certainly did that, with Tsitsipas taking out Roger Federer 6-7, 7-6, 7-5, 7-6 at odds of 9/2 (5.50). We knew Tsitsipas was good. Now we know he’s really good.
Our 66/1 comeback pick Tomas Berdych ran into the Rafael Nadal train. But we managed to get in on some of the ‘upset’ action thanks to 2/1 (3.00) match pick Frances Tiafoe beating Grigor Dimitrov. That was another exhilarating performance from one of our Class of 2019 names. It was Tiafoe’s 21st birthday…
On the day, that Tiafoe win served only to cover our Women’s match bets on Amanda Anisimova (lost 2-0) and Maria Sharapova (lost 2-1). However, if you’re on Tiafoe or Tsitsipas in the Men’s Outright Winner market then you’ll be sitting on some nice prices with the quarter finals up next. On day one of the tournament Tiafoe was a 300/1 rank outsider, with Tsitsipas a 40/1 shot.
Tsitsipas has beaten Federer. Tiafoe will play Nadal in the quarter finals. And there are more opportunities for the young ones to deliver tonight…
Medvedev’s Moment…
Back to that Ones to Watch in 2019 list and Daniil Medvedev is 6/1 (7.00) to beat World No.1 Novak Djokovic. The 22-year-old Russian is yet to drop a set here so far, and is talking as if he fancies his chances of pulling off the upset...
That’s good to hear. We’ve been waiting to find out who of the current crop of ‘Next Gen’ players will be able to really mount a serious challenge to the established order made up for so long of Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray. After what Tsitsipas did last night, John McEnroe said we’re now “witnessing the changing of the guard”…
Medvedev has the tools to join the party. Of course, Medvedev v Djokovic is not Tsitsipas v Federer. Roger’s forehand was misfiring and he’s played a lot less tennis in recent times than the younger Novak. However, Medvedev has a big, big serve. He has confidence. He believes he can win. And if he’s brave and backs himself to come to the net rather than get drawn into Djokovic’s long-rally baseline trap, the young Russian can make a name for himself, too…
This is scheduled as the last match of the night session on the Rod Laver show-court (9.30am+, UK time). That slot could be significant as the cooler night air can help Medvedev’s flat-hitting game, compared to the ball-slowing humidity of some Melbourne day conditions. And in his last match, Djokovic got a bit bothered by playing under the floodlights…
The World No.1 needs to be loved, so he won’t like it if the crowd sniff an upset and get behind the young underdog here. All these factors help when we’re looking to get a big favourite beat…
At odds of 6/1 this is of course an outsider pick. But this price is bigger than both the Tsitsipas and Collins shocks yesterday. There hasn’t been any bandwagon-jumping in terms of hyping up Medvedev’s chances.
Our Ones to Watch youngsters are there for a reason. This is a chance to back one at a big price in a big match.
The Quiet Man @ 25/1…
The other young man we have going for us is 22-year-old Borna Coric, who we’re on at 50/1 Each Way. Coric is a 3/10 (1.30) favourite to beat Lucas Pouille in the 4th Round tonight.
If our young Croatian gets the win, he’ll be in to the quarter finals to face either Alexander Zverev or Milos Raonic…
Milos Raonic is the man for me. The Canadian isn’t one for making a big fuss, and has quietly and calmly gone about his business here. Back from injury and looking back to his best – better, in fact, as his volleying is now world class – Raonic blocked out all the circus around Nick Kyrgios to beat the Aussie 3-0 in his back yard. He followed that up by beating three-time Grand Slam champ Stan Wawrinka 3-1. Then stayed focused to brush aside another big server, Pierre-Hugues Herbert, 3-0.
Raonic plays Zverev tonight. The 21-year-old German went off as one of the tournament favourites and the pressure is on him to make the step up and challenge for a Grand Slam title next Sunday. So far, Zverev has one French Open quarter final on his CV.
For all the talk of youth, in recent years the Men’s game has tended to see players make Major developments nearer to 30. At 28 years of age and with one Grand Slam final and multiple semi finals to his name (including here in Melbourne), the big-serving, level-headed Raonic can show his class and prove the value tonight…
Zverev is 4/5 (1.80) to win. Raonic is Evens (2.00). There’s not much in it. But the Outright market has Raonic twice the price of the German…
Odds of 28/1 and 25/1 appeal for Raonic. And if Raonic and 50/1 Coric both win tonight, they’ll meet in the quarters – meaning we could have a man guaranteed in the semi finals. That’s the plan.
Today’s Men’s Ones to Watch picks are:
Match Winner:
BET: Daniil Medvedev to beat Novak Djokovic @ 6/1
BOOKIES: 6/1 (7.00) Bet365, BetVictor, Boylesports
Outright Winner:
BET: Milos Raonic @ 28/1 or 25/1 Each Way*
BOOKIES: 25/1 (26.00) 888 Sport, Unibet, 28/1 (29.00) Boylesports, 25/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
I’ll be back by 9pm tomorrow with your Bets of the Day email for Day Nine. We’ll be looking to reassess the Women’s draw and Outright market once the full quarter final line-up is known then.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson