Tennis Betting Advice - January 2020

Australian Open: Quarter Finals – Part II…

Tuesday 28th January 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Play starts Midnight…
  • Day 10…
  • Quarter Finals…

Good evening and welcome to day 10 of our Australian Open coverage.

Play starts at Midnight. You can watch live on the Eurosport channels, website or app.

Tough for Tennys…

In yesterday’s email we spoke about ‘imposter syndrome’ and the importance of mental strength in sport.

Those are especially relevant topics this week, with a handful of players all looking to break new ground at the business end of a Grand Slam.

Last night, Tennys Sandgren was one point away from becoming the lowest-ranked Australian Open men’s semi-finalist since 1991….

The 28-year-old – ranked No.100 in the world – came within a whisker of knocking out Roger Federer.

Sandgren had seven match points to close out a 3-1 win. He couldn’t take any of them.

Crucially, perhaps, only one of those match points was on the American’s own serve. On the night, Sandgren out-aced Federer by 27 aces to 5. You don’t see stats like that against Roger very often. What Tennys would’ve given for an ace on that match point.

Federer moves on to the semi finals. But he’s not looking anywhere near his best.

The Swiss star very rarely takes medical timeouts, and certainly doesn’t use them ‘tactically’ like some players on the men’s & women’s tours seem to. Last night’s medical attention was reportedly for Roger’s long-standing back problem.

Tournament favourite and reigning champion Novak Djokovic awaits in the semi final. The bookies’ early prices have Djokovic a huge favourite for that match, short odds-on at 1/8 (1.13).

Kenin keeps it going…

Last night our 50/1 pick in the Women’s Outright Winner market, Sofia Kenin, made it through to the semi finals. ‘Sonya’ held her nerve well to get past Ons Jabeur, 6-4, 6-4.

In her career-first Grand Slam semi final, Kenin will take on tournament favourite and Australian hope, Ashleigh Barty. We’ll look at that match tomorrow.

Quarter Finals price-check…

The second batch of quarter finals take place from Midnight, running through to tomorrow morning (UK time).

Here are those matches, along with each player’s pre-tournament price in the Outright Winner market:

Anett Kontaveit (125/1) v Simona Halep (11/1)

Garbine Muguruza (40/1) v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (150/1)

Stan Wawrinka (66/1) v Alexander Zverev (50/1)

Rafael Nadal (5/1) v Dominic Thiem (22/1)

As with yesterday’s quarter finals, there are some massive prices in there.

And it’s worth repeating again: quarter final line-ups like this are exactly why we go after the big prices from day one.

Our Day 10 chances…

In terms of the big prices, we have two One to Watch in action on the day 10 schedule – giving us two more chances to get a pick into the semi finals.

Unlike last night, where Kenin was the favourite in the Match Winner betting v Jabeur, our two players here are both priced up at 2/1+ to progress to the final four.

Anett Kontaveit is flying the flag in our attempt to land a 100/1 shot this season…

We’re only in January of course, and the first Grand Slam of the year. But getting the Estonian through to this stage at substantial odds in an encouraging start. From a top price 125/1, Kontaveit is now trading at 20/1 and 25/1.

As you might expect, things get tough now…

Kontaveit is up against Simona Halep. The Romanian is a two-time Grand Slam champion, and looking to reach a sixth career final at this level.

Having come so close in the epic 2018 final v Caroline Wozniacki, but having to settle for the runner-up trophy, Simona has the steely look of a woman on a mission in Melbourne. The bookies make Halep 3/1 to achieve her goal. She’s 2/5 (1.40) to win this match.

In the men’s, we’re on Dominic Thiem…

The 26-year-old faces one of the toughest tests in tennis: beating Rafael Nadal over five sets in a Grand Slam match…

Thiem & Nadal have got an intriguing rivalry on clay. They’ve met in the last two French Open finals. In the 2018 final in Paris, Nadal beat the Austrian, 3-0. Last year, Rafa prevailed, 3-1. Thiem is getting closer.

But this match isn’t on clay. And of their 13 career meetings, only one has been on hard courts. That was a five-set epic in the US Open quarter finals in 2018. Nadal battled through to win 7-6 in a final-set decider, in a match that lasted six minutes short of five hours. We could see a similarly gruelling tussle tomorrow morning…

Dominic definitely has the fitness and the shots to stay with Rafa. As ever with professional sport, it’s all about execution: putting it all together on the day.

Thiem isn’t a fashionable pick. But unlike a lot of ‘underdog’ opponents that take on Nadal on the big stage, this one has the look of a player that actually believes – and indeed, knows – that he can beat the World No.1.

Before that US Open nail-biter in 2018, Thiem was a 3/1 (4.00) outsider. This time, the oddsmakers have the current World No.5 at 9/4 (3.25). Once again – Dominic is getting closer. Nadal is 4/11 (1.36) across the board.

  • Remember – getting an outsider to a quarter final means you’ve got a player in the business end of the tournament, at a great price. We’ve got chances. And getting chances at big prices is what our Ones to Watch picks are all about

Kontaveit v Halep is on at Midnight.

Nadal v Thiem is scheduled for 8.30am.

Enjoy the tennis…

I’ll be back tomorrow with your day 11 email, when we’ll be taking a first look at the semi final markets.

  • If you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’m on hand via email. You can message me at:

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch