Tennis Betting Advice - January 2020

Australian Open: Day 8 – including Nadal v Kyrgios…

Sunday 26th January 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Play starts Midnight…
  • Day 8…
  • Percentage picks at 50/1...

Good evening and welcome to day eight of our Australian Open coverage.

Play starts at Midnight. You can watch live on the Eurosport channels, website or app.

Kenin comes through…

Coco Gauff v Sofia Kenin was a big match.

The hype machine was all on Gauff. The 15-year-old took the first set on a tiebreak.

But Kenin is a ferocious competitor, and went straight to work to mount a comeback. The 21-year-old kept her head well to steer a 6-7, 6-3, 6-0 win.

These two young Americans are sure to meet many times in big matches in years to come. But this time, it was the older player that had the edge.

Kenin moves onto her first Grand Slam quarter final, where she’ll meet another debutant at this level, Ons Jabeur of Tunisia. That match will be on Monday’s day nine schedule.

We’re on Kenin at 50/1. The revised women’s Outright Winner market now has ‘Sonya’ as a general 9/1 shot, and 12/1 at best. We have price on our side.

Day 8 analysis...

Tonight & tomorrow morning will see the completion of the 4th round, with four men’s matches and four in the women’s – with the remaining eight quarter final spots up for grabs.

In the bottom half of the women’s draw, we have Anett Kontaveit v Iga Swiatek. We’re on both players in the region of 100/1 each, so we’re assured a long-shot pick progressing to the quarter finals there.

In the men’s, we have Andrey Rublev (66/1) and Dominic Thiem (22/1) in action.

Rublev is 10/11 (1.91) to beat Alexander Zverev, a price that puts him marginally ahead in the Match Winner market. That’s a measure of how far the Russian has come recently (and how much Zverev has dropped off in recent months) – as the head-to-head is 3-0 to the German.

Thiem is much stronger in the betting, at 4/11 (1.36) across the board to beat the talented-but-inconsistent Frenchman, Gael Monfils. The head-to-head is 5-0 to the Austrian.

Rafael Nadal v Nick Kyrgios

The matches are all big ones from now on. But there’s a real blockbuster in store in the morning, with Rafael Nadal v Nick Kyrgios (8am, UK time).

The head-to-head is 4-3 to Rafa. They’ve met twice before at Wimbledon, with one 3-1 win apiece. This time, Nick gets a shot at Nadal on ‘home turf’...

Rafa is popular everywhere, and the Australian crowd will hardly be booing the multiple Grand Slam champion here. The Aussies love cheering on one of their own though, and so far in this tournament Kyrgios has been winning over many with his improved attitude and demeanour – along, of course, with some great play.

As we always say with Kyrgios, the talent is not in question. It’s whether he can hold it all together – physically as well as mentally. And in a Grand Slam format, that requires seven best-of-five-set match wins in two weeks.

In the last round, Nadal motored through his match against fellow Spaniard, Pablo Carreno Busta, 6-1, 6-2, 6-4, in one hour and 41 minutes.

Kyrgios had a five-set classic. Nick went from two sets up, to two all – with a match point in both the third and fourth sets – before eventually beating Karen Khachanov in a final-set deciding tiebreak.

That 6-2, 7-6, 6-7, 6-7, 7-6 victory took four hours and 24 minutes. Nick is sure to be feeling that a little coming into this clash with the World No.1.

As that 3rd round score-line suggests, Kyrgios and his big serve get into quite a few tiebreaks…

So far in 2020, nine of his 23 sets have ended with the 7-6 score (39%).

Across seven previous meetings with Nadal, seven of their 20 sets played have gone to a tiebreak (35%).

Four of those seven 7-6 sets have come in their two most recent encounters, at Wimbledon (grass) and Acapulco (hard) in 2019.

Overall, Kyrgios has won five of their seven tiebreakers. That record, propelled by his massive serve, is something for the Australian fans to hold onto here. So far in this tournament, Nick has served 75 aces, compared to 22 for Rafa.

That brings us to the markets:

The Match Winner prices have Nadal a strong favourite at 2/11 (1.18). Kyrgios is 4/1 (5.00) for the upset. No surprises in those odds. At Wimbledon last year, the Aussie was 3/1 (4.00).

The bookies make it short odds-on for there to be a Tiebreak in the Match, with Skybet’s 2/5 (1.40) the best on offer.

In Paddy Power’s Most Aces market, Kyrgios is all but unbackable at 1/1,000 (!). That’s a £100 stake to win 10 pence, ladies & gentlemen.

The 1st Set Tiebreak might hold more appeal at odds of 9/4 (3.25). But then again, it’s worth noting that none of their last five meetings have seen a 7-6 score in the opening set. And neither player has produced a first set tiebreak so far in this tournament.

My takeaway point from those numbers is that Kyrgios has definitely got a chance of making a match of this and getting a set on the scoreboard…

Percentage picks at 50/1…

We’ve had a few pops at the Set Betting markets in week one and had a few near misses. The prices combine nicely for three of the remaining men’s 4th round match-ups, with the 3-1 scores looking a plenty worthwhile route as a ‘percentage pick’…

Nadal 3-1 is my choice v Kyrgios. As outlined above, Rafa has the edge but expect Nick to be in this contest, for sure.

Thiem 3-1 is the score I like v Monfils. This is a consistent ball striker against an in-and-out player. But Dominic doesn’t always get the job done in straight sets. In fact, 12 of Thiem’s last 18 Grand Slam matches have seen four or more sets, including in the last two rounds here in Melbourne.

Daniil Medvedev v Stan Wawrinka is the other match that gets our attention here…

The fast-rising Russian has been in brilliant form so far, with 3-1, 3-0 and 3-0 wins. The level of opponent goes up a notch here though, with the vastly experienced and still very-dangerous-on-his-day Wawrinka more than capable of taking a set in this one.

Medvedev 3-1 is the pick. That’s been the outcome in both of their previous Grand Slam meetings, at the US Open last year as well as at Wimbledon back in 2017.

As singles, you’ll get around 11/4 (3.75) each for those 3-1 Set Betting scores. The treble combines for around 50/1. Mix and match as you please. My preference is the trixie – which pays out on any two as a double, with the treble the jackpot carrot for the full house.

  • A trixie is made up of three doubles and a treble

Play starts from 1.30am, with Monfils v Thiem first up.

Ones to Watch:

Match picks

Set Betting:
Rafael Nadal v Nick Kygios – Nadal to win 3-1
Gael Monfils v Dominic Thiem – Thiem to win 3-1
Daniil Medvedev v Stan Wawrinka – Medvedev to win 3-1

  • TRIXIE: those three 3-1 Set Betting scores (at 50/1) with Skybet, Bet365, William Hill, 888 Sport, Unibet, Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Coral

I’ll be back tomorrow with your day nine email.

If you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’m on hand via email. You can message me at:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch