Tennis Betting Advice - January 2020
Australian Open: Quarter Finals – Part I…
Monday 27th January 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good evening and welcome to day nine of our Australian Open coverage.
Play starts at Midnight. You can watch live on the Eurosport channels, website or app.
Yesterday’s research proved accurate enough for the match between Rafael Nadal and Nick Kyrgios.
Rafa won 3-1, with tiebreaks in the third & fourth sets. That’s not far off the mark from what the numbers were telling us. Nadal won 6-3, 3-6, 7-6, 7-6.
The thing about betting is, you not only have to a get a ‘read’ on an upcoming sporting event (in other words, attempting the impossible by predicting the future). You also have to find the right market to bet in, among any number of options…
For example, there was no ‘4th Set Tiebreak’ available for that Nadal match, unless you were quick on the ball and following the match in-play. And my ‘Trixie’ combining the Rafa 3-1 score with two others came up empty-handed.
Staking the farm…
One thing we can control is the prices we take…
If we just want to ‘predict’ by following the shortest-priced outcomes, then let me know how you all got on with the 1/1,000 that I mentioned yesterday for Kyrgios to serve the Most Aces v Nadal (!).
The aces score was 25-12 to Kyrgios.
By my calculations, at those short-as-you’ll-ever-see odds, you’d need to have staked in the region of four grand in order to win enough to buy one pint of beer at your local pub.
Needless to say, the ‘put the farm on it’ strategy is not one I would recommend.
Our Outright opportunities…
In the Outright Winner markets, we have three much, much bigger prices on our side…
We started the tournament with a total of 10 Each Way picks across the men’s & women’s tournaments. In doing so, we covered 4% of the field.
With the quarter final spots now all in place, we have three of the remaining 16 players represented as Ones to Watch picks. That’s 19% of the field.
Our players & prices going into the quarter finals are:
Getting an outsider to a quarter final means you’ve got a player in the ‘business end’ of the tournament, with the odds now in your favour. We’ve got chances. And getting chances at big prices is what our Ones to Watch picks are all about.
Quarter Finals price-check…
The first batch of quarter finals take place from Midnight, running through to tomorrow morning (UK time).
Here are those matches, along with each player’s pre-tournament price in the Outright Winner market:
Sofia Kenin (50/1) v Ons Jabeur (500/1)
Ashleigh Barty (8/1) v Petra Kvitova (22/1)
Tennys Sandgren (500/1) v Roger Federer (10/1)
Milos Raonic (125/1) v Novak Djokovic (6/5)
As you can see, there are some real whoppers there. It’s not all big names and favourites. On day one, a couple of bookies even had Jabeur and Sandgren at 1,000/1.
Quarter Final line-ups like this are exactly why we go after the big prices from day one.
Day 9 analysis…
Tonight’s main event for us is Sofia Kenin taking on Ons Jabeur (play starts at Midnight).
This is a first Grand Slam quarter final for both women.
The bookies make our player Kenin a 4/9 (1.44) favourite to go through. With her Tunisian opponent around 9/5 (2.80).
These two have met once before on hard courts, and the American came out on top, beating Jabeur 2-0 at WTA Hobart, Australia last January. Kenin went on to win that tournament. A repeat outcome this week would be nice, to say the least.
Jabeur is dangerous. She’s the kind of streaky, powerful-hitting player we spoke about last week when getting Kontaveit and Iga Swiatak in the book as 100/1 shots. Yet she also has a bit of variety and trickiness to her shots, too.
World No.15 Kenin is the rightful favourite on many counts. The 21-year-old is higher ranked, leads the head-to-head, and has won finals before. Age 25 and ranked No.78, Jabeur is still waiting for her first WTA (or Grand Slam) trophy.
Matches aren’t played on paper, though. And mental strength will come into this, too…
Things get serious tonight. Both women are in uncharted territory at a Grand Slam. There will be an element of who can cope with the occasion here.
I’d have Kenin down as just having the edge. Jabeur can be expected to blow hot at some stage in this match – maybe even for long periods. But as she did in the last round when coming back to out-play Coco Gauff, I’m with Sofia to hold firm when it really matters tonight.
That’s my opinion.
Up to you…
Here some more numbers, if you’re looking to manoeuvre your position on Kenin.
If you want to protect your original stake on Kenin, then back Jabeur to beat her this evening.
If you want to ensure you have a ‘big one’ going into the semi finals, the Tunisian is now a top-price 40/1 for the title, and as such, the rank outsider in the Outright Winner list.
Beware though that that 40/1 price on Jabeur is now at reduced Each Way terms of 1/3rd the odds for reaching the final (as opposed to the standard 1/2 odds for 1-2 places).
Filling in the gaps between tonight’s Match Winner odds and that Outright price, that means Jabeur would be an anticipated 4/1 shot against Barty or Kvitova in the semi final (and then around 2/1 in the final).
I’d say that’s all about right, so the bookies are certainly not dangling any particularly eye-catching value about Jabeur with that reduced-terms 40/1.
Nobody beats Milos Raonic 10 times in a row…?
The first two men’s quarter finals both pitch an underdog against a superstar name.
Tennys Sandgren is 7/1 to beat Roger Federer.
Milos Raonic is 5/1 to beat Novak Djokovic.
If there’s to be any sniff of an upset in those, then both men will need to serve to their best ability – and start the match well…
As it stands, Raonic (82 aces) and Sandgren (68) have hit more aces at the Australian Open 2020 than any other player left in the tournament.
Raonic has always been an ace-machine. And the Canadian – all of a sudden back from his latest injury layoff and playing brilliantly – has been serving phenomenally so far. He’s won all four matches, 3-0, and is yet to drop a single service game.
In Djokovic, though, Milos faces the greatest returner in the sport. The head-to-head is an intimidating 9-0 to Novak. But I reckon Raonic can cause problems to the Serbian here. With confidence high and low expectations outside of his camp, Raonic could make a fast start.
The same goes for Sandgren, who is in the Aussie Open quarter finals for the second time in three years – and facing Federer for the very first time.
That this is a first meeting with the 20-time Grand Slam champion is probably a good thing, as the American has spoken of having what sounds like imposter syndrome in the past. In this press conference after his 4th round win, though, Tennys said he now believes he does belong on the big stage and in matches like this. And he sounded pretty determined.
As I mentioned the other day, Federer looked tired after his five-set, final-set tiebreak victory over John Millman in the 3rd round. He looked tired after beating Marton Fuscovics in the 4th round, too. That match went to four sets, with Roger having to come from behind after dropping the first set…
Again, if Sandgren is going to get anything here, then the first set may well be his best chance to strike.
Rather than the Match Winner odds of 7/1 and 5/1 respectively, for me the 1st Set Winner market holds the best opportunity for an outsider payout in these two matches. Sandgren is 4/1. Raonic is 3/1.
Ones to Watch:
1st Set Winner:
Tennys Sandgren v Roger Federer
Milos Raonic v Novak Djokovic
I’ll be back tomorrow with your day 10 email, looking at the next four quarter final matches.
If you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’m on hand via email. You can message me at: email@example.com
Enjoy the tennis…