Tennis Betting Advice - January 2020
Australian Open: Day Two – 50/1 and 500/1 outsiders…
Monday 20th January 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good evening and welcome to day two of our Australian Open coverage.
Play starts at 11.30pm. The Tuesday schedule is a busy one, with rain delays meaning there are matches to be caught up on from Monday, too.
You can watch live on the Eurosport channels, website or app. They have a choice of every match, on every court.
Going for prices…
As outlined from day one, we’re approaching the Australian Open in exactly the same way that we tackle every tournament: going after appealing outsiders at attractive odds.
That aggressive tactic will inevitably mean that over the course of a season, we will have more losing picks than winners in the tournament Outright Winner markets.
Last night, we lost 50/1 shot Denis Shapovalov in the 1st round. Losing to 4/1 match underdog Marton Fucsovics, that 6-3, 6-7, 6-1, 7-6 defeat was the biggest shock of the opening day – and we were on the wrong end of it.
Frustrating as that Shapovalov match was to watch (and I was up well past 3am watching it), the bigger picture is that results like that are all part and parcel of the Ones to Watch approach.
In the women’s, yesterday’s other 50/1 selection Sofia Kenin won her 1st round match 6-2, 6-4, and looked in pretty good shape to me.
We also had two men’s Match Winner picks on Monday. Rain delays affected both.
Alexander Bublik is our 4/5 (1.80) choice to beat Jordan Thompson, and they’ll now play from around 1.30am.
And our Even-Money (2.00) shot Reilly Opelka is two sets to nil up against Fabio Fognini. That one will be completed overnight, too.
40/1, 50/1 and 500/1 picks…
With over half of the 1st round matches to be played on Tuesday, now is a good time to get our next tournament picks in the book.
In yesterday’s analysis I mentioned two other players alongside Shapovalov in the 3rd Quarter of the men’s draw. With the Canadian youngster gone, there’s a real opportunity for another outsider from this section to make it to the quarter finals or beyond…
Opelka a dark horse at huge prices…
Matteo Berrettini won 3-0 last night and his big serve was in fine working order. He wasn’t playing a high calibre of opponent, though. The Italian is still 100/1 with a couple of firms, and 80/1 and 66/1 in general.
But with Roger Federer (potential quarter final opponent) and reigning Australian Open champion and 2020 tournament favourite Novak Djokovic (potential semi final) in this side of the draw – I want to get on a player with the biggest possible upside here…
Reilly Opelka is the 500/1 outsider for me. At those odds, you can’t expect to win. But with his absolutely massive serve, and his improved groundstrokes and rallying game, the 22-year-old is a dark horse to have a very good run this fortnight.
As stated in our Ones to Watch in 2020 list, the 6’11” American hit more aces than anyone last season.
And he was looking very good with the ball in play in the first two sets v Fognini on Monday night – also looking the part in his pristine white kit. Reilly looked focused and ready to tackle the task at hand. Fognini is a tricky opponent and will try and wind you up. Opelka had a good demeanour about him last night.
Should he finish the job tonight and knock out Fognini – he needs to win one more set to land our match bet – then the Outright markets will start to be nibbled at. Betfred’s standalone 1,000/1 has gone. But elsewhere there’s 500/1 and plenty of 300/1 about.
In the 3rd Quarter Winner market, Federer is the 4/6 (1.67) favourite, followed by Berrettini at a top price 7/1 (8.00). The Italian has played Roger twice and is yet to win a set. Including a 6-1, 6-2, 6-2 mauling in the 4th round at Wimbledon last summer.
Opelka is a 40/1 and 33/1 outsider to win the 3rd Quarter. He is yet to play Federer. That’s a plus. The young American can go in with less mental scar tissue than Berrettini.
To get a shot at that potential match, Opelka could face Berrettini in the 4th round. Those two are also yet to meet on the tour. If that match did happen, it would likely be a close-run thing with tiebreakers and serve dominating. And in those circumstances, I’d want to be on the man with the biggest serve – and at the much bigger price.
40/1 and 50/1 shots in a wobbly section…
On to the women’s event now, and we’re paying particular attention to the bottom half of the draw – where we’re already on Belinda Bencic…
With World No.1 and home hope Ashleigh Barty (8/1 – 9.00), reigning champ Naomi Osaka (15/2 – 8.50) and bookies’ favourite Serena Williams (7/2 – 4.50) all in the top half, it makes sense to weight our outsider selections towards players that can’t meet those big names until the final.
And in the bottom half, we can identify the 4th Quarter of this women’s draw as the place most likely to provide us with an outsider to come through at a nice price in the Outright Winner market…
The bookies’ 4th Quarter Winner list is headed up by players that have either stumbled more often than not at the business end of Grand Slams, or faded away since making it big.
Cases in point in this section being:
Elina Svitolina, who is 25/1 for the tournament and 5/1 for the Quarter (so far in career, two semi final and four quarter final losses at Grand Slams).
Karolina Pliskova, who is 10/1 and 11/4 (3.75) in those two markets respectively (yet to reach a Grand Slam final since finishing runner-up at the US Open 2016).
Kiki Bertens is 50/1 for the trophy and 7/1 for this Quarter (never been past 3rd round at either of the hard-court Grand Slams, Australian & US Open).
And then we have Angelique Kerber and Garbine Muguruza, who have both struggled badly in the last season or two – having previously scaled great heights to win a couple of Majors each, both reaching World No.1.
Kerber is 50/1 to win a second Australian Open title, and 12/1 at best in the 4th Quarter betting. The German fell before the quarter final stage in all four Slams last season.
Muguruza is similar prices to Kerber. The Spaniard has gone out in the 1st round at both of the last two Slams, US Open & Wimbledon 2019. She faces a tricky opener against Shelby Rogers tonight.
Anisimova and Vondrousova…
Putting a line through those more well-known women, the two young contenders I like are our 18-year-old Ones to Watch in 2020 player, Amanda Anisimova (40/1). And our 40/1 finalist from last year’s French Open, Marketa Vondrousova (50/1).
As outlined above, this section of the draw is full of potential holes, with some vulnerable-looking star names. Anisimova and Vondrousova have the chance to make some progress here…
Both got a taste for the big stage in Paris last spring, with Anisimova a semi-finalist at Roland Garros, and Vondrousova the runner-up.
Still a teenager, Amanda was our early-bird long-shot for the US Open last summer. She had to miss the event, with the sudden and tragic passing of her father. The American has a new coach going into this season, and has said she believes she can “win a Slam this year.” That’s the spirit.
Vondrousova was out injured since Wimbledon. But this smart Czech left-hander made some very good early steps back on the tour this month, winning three out of four sets by the 6-0 ‘bagel’ score – before running into eventual WTA Adelaide champion, Ash Barty.
With a decent-looking draw and the chance to build some momentum, those two join our Outright Winner picks at 40/1+ Each Way prices.
Ones to Watch:
Outright Winner pick – Each Way
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.
3rd Quarter Winner pick
Outright Winner picks – Each Way
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.
I’ll be back by 8pm on Tuesday with your analysis, picks and advice for day three.
If you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’m on hand via email. You can message me at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Enjoy the tennis…