Tennis Betting Advice - January 2021

Following the French in France...

Tuesday 26th January 2021

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • ATP Challenger, Quimper…
  • Two French underdogs…
  • Play starts 3pm…

Ernests Gulbis didn’t play too bad last night. But when it came to the crucial moments, the Latvian’s rustiness – and a slight lack of competitive edge – came to the fore…

Most notably, having faced no break points early on, Gulbis was comfortably broken at 4-4 in the first set. His opponent then served it out for 6-4.

And at 6-6 in the second set, Gulbis double-faulted when he had the chance to get back in it, and lost the tiebreak, seven points to three.

Our man Federico Gaio won 6-4, 7-6. The Italian remained solid throughout, securing the win and our match pick.

  • Gulbis has now lost 10 matches in a row

I’m staying in Quimper today, and taking a line that long-time Ones to Watch followers may recognise:

Backing French players to do well in France…

This country has a lot of indoor hard-court events, both on the main tour, and the lower-tier Challenger and ITF circuits. And there are stacks of French players in the game.

The ATP Quimper Challenger is one such event. Last year, there was a French runner-up here, and two French semi-finalists.

In 2019, a home winner – and three out of four Frenchmen in the semis.

In 2018, two more French semi-finalists – including the tournament winner.

In 2017, another French champion, with two Frenchmen in the semi finals.

In 2016, a French runner-up.

In 2015, an all-French final. The same again in 2014.

You see my point. I could go on.

It’s not a green light to bet blind on the home players here. Because you should never ‘bet blind’ on anything. But the French representatives are certainly worth paying attention to...

Two French underdogs…

Here are two matches that catch my eye in Quimper today. With both French players the outsider in the betting:

Maxime Janvier v Brandon Nakashima

Nakashima is one of the teenagers on our Ones to Watch in 2021 list. But that doesn’t mean we can’t back against him. Judge each match on its merits.

Janvier made the final here in Quimper last year. The 24-year-old Frenchman is unlikely to be a pushover for the 19-year-old American today.

The underdog win is priced as 2/1 (3.0). But I’m always keen to squeeze more, especially when the formbook points to a pattern like this:

  • Each of Janvier’s last 5 matches have gone the distance to 3 sets
  • Nakashima has played 3 matches so far this season – and they’ve all gone to 3 sets

In the Total Sets market, you’ll get around 6/4 (2.5) for the ‘3 Sets’ or ‘Over 2.5 Sets’ option.

At standout odds of 11/2 (6.5), my choice is the 2-1 Set Betting score to the home player & underdog, Janvier.

Denis Kudla v Constant Lestienne

Another American favourite in this one, with Kudla 4/6 (1.67) in the Match Winner betting. I’m not too sure about that, given the setting and situation.

Kudla is making his debut here in Quimper. Four of his five career titles on the lower-tier tours have come at home in the USA.

Lestienne has won his 1st round match here two years running, and on both occasions was a little unlucky in hindsight to run into the eventual finalist in the next round.

The 28-year-old Frenchman has got a very respectable career match win-loss record of 150-96 on indoor hard courts (61%). Again, the American player isn’t likely to get an easy ride here.

It’s also very much worth noting that Kudla had to drop out of Australian Open Qualifying this month, after testing positive for coronavirus. I never claim to have any ‘locker-room’ or fitness information that isn’t already public knowledge. Kudla was said to have been experiencing ‘mild symptoms.’

Lestienne is 11/10 (2.1) for the win.

Ones to Watch:

ATP Challenger – Quimper

Set Betting:

  • Maxime Janvier to win 2-1 v Brandon Nakashima is 11/2 (6.5) with Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, 5/1 (6.0) BetVictor, Sportingbet 

Match Winner:

  • Constant Lestienne to beat Denis Kudla is 11/10 (2.1) with BetVictor, Boylesports, Evens (2.0) Bet365

The matches are scheduled for 3pm+, UK time.

You watch live, for free, on the ATP Challenger TV page here. As well as on bookie websites.

I’ll be back soon with more, with the Australian Open warm-up events just around the corner.

Need to get in touch? Email me at:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch