Tennis Betting Advice - January 2022
Monday 17th January 2022
Welcome to your Australian Open daily email service – Day 2
Over the next two weeks, I’ll be in your inbox by 5pm every day. Offering my insight, analysis, betting picks and advice, for the first Grand Slam of 2022.
And they’re off…
The opening day’s play offered up the usual mixed bag – some steamroller wins for the favourites, and the odd shock or two.
One of those upsets went against us, with Coco Gauff falling at the first hurdle, at the hands of 7/1 match underdog, Qiang Wang.
Elsewhere, with regards to our Outright Winner book, Ons Jabuer was a late withdrawal (void). Amanda Anisimova showed some grit to come from behind to win her 1st round encounter.
In the men’s, we had three players in action on Sunday night, and they all made strong progress through to round two. With Carlos Alcaraz (33/1 – 40/1), Denis Shapovalov (80/1), and Lorenzo Sonego (200/1 – 350/1) the players in question.
Of that trio – and indeed of all the tennis I saw overnight and this morning – teenager Alcaraz was the most impressive in my eyes…
There had been some talk yesterday of the 18-year-old Spaniard being a little undercooked going into his first match of the season, having opted not to play any of the ATP warm-up tournaments in Australia this month. Not a bit of it. Carlos looked mightily physically impressive in his Nadal-esque sleeveless top, and some of his ball-striking was electrifying. This kid is the real deal. I’m glad we’re on him.
Building our Outright Winner book…
As it stands, our open book of Each Way outsider picks in the Outright Winner markets looks like this (more details in yesterday’s email):
Women:
Amanda Anisimova
Clara Tauson
Men:
Jannik Sinner
Carlos Alcaraz
Lorenzo Sonego
Denis Shapovalov
Storm brewing at 3/1…
The bottom half of the women’s field get underway on Day 2, with matches taking place late tonight/ early Tuesday morning, UK time.
The bottom section of the ladies’ draw gets our attention today. Right at the foot of the drawsheet, world no.2 Aryna Sabalenka sits as the big name to be shot at…
As we’ve reported in the last couple of weeks, Sabalenka has had a nightmare with her serve of late. Losing two out of two matches so far in 2022. With a horror-show of serving the main culprit, in a pair of ugly defeats at the hands of players priced as 3/1+ match underdogs on the day:
By the end of that Peterson match, the world no.2 had resorted to throwing in underarm serves, and had tears in her eyes. Hard to watch. We have to be ruthless when it comes to betting, though…
I’ve always said that Sabalenka is a hit or miss player. She’s all-or-nothing with 99% of her shots, with power that can too often lead to the ball going astray. Right now, Aryna is more miss than hit.
There are two ways I want to oppose the 2nd seed here. Firstly, there’s nowhere to hide in the 1st round tomorrow morning, with Sabalenka taking on home-crowd favourite, Storm Sanders. That match is first on court in the evening session on centre court, AKA the Rod Laver Arena (8am+ UK time)…
Sitting outside the world’s top 100, Sanders isn’t too far off the ranking of those two recent thorns in Sabalenka’s side, Juvan and Peterson. Storm took a set off the Belarusian in their only previous meeting, way back in 2016. And more notably and more recently, pushed the highly-rated Elena Rybakina to three sets in Adelaide at the start of the month.
With her head in the right place, Sabalenka’s B-game would usually be enough to get past a lower-ranked opponent like Sanders. But to be fair to the outsider, injuries have dampened Storm’s rankings potential over the years. And with the heavy odds-on favourite looking very shaky in both of her outings Down Under so far this season, I want to be taking the 3/1 odds for the upset here.
Young prospects at eye-catching prices…
My other angle in this segment of the draw is to back two exciting young prospects in the Outright Winner market. A) With the potential to trouble Sabalenka, should they meet in the upcoming rounds. And, B) To grab the best price today, in case the 2nd seed is sent packing, early-doors.
The two youngsters I like in this bottom half of the draw both appear in this year’s Ones to Watch Report:
Canadian 19-year-old Fernandez showed what she’s capable of at the US Open, making the final as a rank outsider. She says she’s hungry for more. Along with the upcoming American 21-year-old Ann Li, who won a first WTA title on hard courts last season, and also reached a semi final in Melbourne this month. Those two can pose a serious underdog threat to the likes of Sabalenka in this draw.
Men’s Day 2 notebook…
Also in my notes for the Day 2 schedule are two men’s matches with strong credentials for tiebreak sets and 7-6 scores. These four players are all big servers, and aces and service games will likely dominate proceedings:
Maxime Cressy v John Isner
Alexei Popyrin v Arthur Rinderknech
The problem with those matches will be getting a halfway backable price for a Tiebreak in the Match. For example, for Cressy v Isner, Bet365 have that option as a very short odds-on chance, at just 1/33 (1.03). Popryin v Rinderknech is also prohibitively priced for that outcome, at 4/11 (1.36) for ‘Over 0.5 Tiebreaks in the Match.’
1st Set Tiebreak and possible in-play Set Correct Scores (7-6) might prove your best bets in those big-serving encounters.
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Ones to Watch picks:
Australian Open 2022 – Women’s
Match Winner:
Outright Winner – Each Way:
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places
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Play starts from Midnight, UK time.
I’ll be back at 5pm Tuesday with your Day 3 email.
P.S
Want to get in touch? My email is: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson