Tennis Betting Advice - January 2022

Australian Open Day 5 - here come the youngsters...

Thursday 20th January 2022

Australian Open daily email service – Day 5

Here we go…

There’s usually a moment in a Grand Slam where the seeds start to tumble. They tend to come in bunches. Last night was that night at the Australian Open.

As I write to you this morning, the Night Session matches are still going. With Day 4 already delivering a batch of against-the-odds results. Opening up the draw that bit more for an outsider to come through…

Here come the youngsters…

Three big names fell in the women’s. Elena Rybakina retired injured. Reigning WTA Finals champion and 2020 Australian Open runner-up Garbine Muguruza was taken out by 4/1 match underdog Alize Cornet. And the big one for us was teenager Clara Tauson beating Anett Kontaveit…

That was a huge win for the Danish teenager. Bigger than on-the-day odds of 3/1 suggest. And an exciting shot in the arm for our long-shot Outright Winner betting…

With Tauson in the book as a 100/1 Ones to Watch pick, last night’s victory was a lot more than a one-off shock result in the women’s field. Clara stepped up and looked every inch the big-match player, against a very strong opponent. It could prove a watershed moment in the 19-year-old’s development. Overnight, the teenager has been chopped from 100/1, down to 40/1, 33/1 and 22/1.

  • Chris Oddo has written a great piece on Tauson’s ‘coming of age’ win over Kontaveit. Check it out here

With Muguruza and Kontaveit out, that’s two Top 10 players and two of the top six seeds at the tournament, gone.

We’ve got a couple more youngsters - and plenty more big prices - running for us on Day 5…

Amanda Anisimova takes on the reigning Aussie Open champ, Naomi Osaka. The 20-year-old is 12/5 (3.4) for the upset. In the Outright Winner market, we have Anisimova in the book at top early-bird prices of 100/1 (now 40/1).

In the men’s, 18-year-old rising star Carlos Alcaraz is in action, taking on world no.7 and 2021 Wimbledon runner-up, Matteo Berrettini. In a testament to how much respect Alcaraz is now getting, the Spanish teenager is priced as the 4/7 (1.57) favourite to beat his Top 10 opponent tonight. Flagged up at top prices of 33/1 and 40/1 pre-tournament, Alcaraz is today trading at 20/1.

Our book of Each Way outsiders look like this:

Amanda Anisimova 100/1
Clara Tauson 100/1
Victoria Azarenka 33/1

Jannik Sinner 25/1
Carlos Alcaraz 33/1
Lorenzo Sonego 350/1
Denis Shapovalov 80/1

Play continues from Midnight tonight.

In terms of the match prices, one that I like from our list of players is Denis Shapovalov to beat Reilly Opelka. The bookies make this a 50-50 encounter, with several firms going 10/11 (1.91) for each player.

Opelka has the massive serve, and with it the potential to dish out a pile of bruising aces. He’s also got an improved range of ground strokes over the last year or two. However, Shapovalov and his lethal left arm bring a lot more raw talent and rallying & shotmaking ability. The 22-year-old Canadian is both younger and higher-ranked than his 24-year-old American opponent. And Denis has posted better results at Grand Slams, too, with Reilly yet to reach the quarter-final stage at any of the four Majors.

Shapovalov’s top level of performance has a higher ceiling than Opelka’s. This is likely to be a tight match in terms of the scoreboard. But in a 50-50 betting market, I’m backing the more gifted ball-player.


Ones to Watch picks:

Australian Open 2022 - Men’s

Match Winner:

  • Denis Shapovalov to beat Reilly Opelka @ 10/11 (1.91) Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred


Play starts from Midnight, UK time. With Opelka v Shapovalov due on court in the early hours of Friday morning.

I’ll be back by 5pm tomorrow with your Day 6 email.

If you’d like to get in touch during the tournament, you can email me at:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch